Case Study: Tullow Oil plc. The Link that Closed the Loop Challenge In its journey to improve and standardize prospect volumetrics and risk analysis, Tullow Oil plc. (Tullow) implemented new processes and installed new software. As a result, Tullow knew that their exploration results were getting better, but how could they confirm this in an objective and undisputable way and how could they spot potential trouble areas? Solution Tullow selected RAPT™ – Risk Analysis and Performance Tracking software for systematic, in-depth and exhaustive Performance Tracking. Results With RAPT™, all prospect assessments in the portfolio are tracked and analyzed, as a whole and down to any desired subgrouping to instantly spot biases in predictions and to obtain clues as to what the root causes for the biases may be. “In the past, much as we took the greatest care in the analysis of prospect volumetrics and risk, we didn’t have any appropriate means by which we could check the consistency of our assessments, or the absence of bias. RAPT™ (Risk Analysis and Portfolio Tracking Software), has provided Tullow with the ability to review all and any present and past predictions in the perspective of the complete portfolio, and to ensure, through continuous review and monitoring, that new, hitherto unanticipated bias does not creep into our new prospect assessments. And all of this, with a very low ongoing software housekeeping effort.” Jerome Kelly, Global Exploration Advisor Tullow Oil plc. A Continuous, Ever Improving, Prospect Risk Assessment Quality and Performance Monitoring Process Over the last decade, and particularly in the past 5 years, Tullow has engaged in a process of refining its exploration methods to improve prospect resource estimation and risk analysis as an integral part of an all-encompassing Global Exploration Process. A number of software tools were adopted with the aim of constraining and standardizing resource estimation and risk analysis. Tullow e believes that this process has resulted in gradual but perceptible gains in explorag tion t performance. For Jerome Kelly, Global Exploration Advisor at Tullow, the next stage of this A journey was to see how Tullow could j assess the efficiency of its process. a For example, how could they prove the existence or non-existence of bias in its e pre-drill estimates? Or how could they know whether their approach to risk analysis was already as good as it could be, or whether they still had undetected issues to address? And, if the former, how could they reliably monitor that biases were not gradually creeping in? It was clear to Kelly and his colleagues that performance tracking was the last link in the continuous improvement chain. But performance tracking with spreadsheets is a difficult, limited, and error-prone approach and that results in limited analysis. Although Tullow believed that its new approach to exploration had been a major contributing factor to its success in recent years, it lacked a tool that would allow it to mine its exploration results in detail to understand and to quantify the relationship between its processes and outcomes at the drill-bit. The ideal solution would be a software solution that allows the systematic conduction of in-depth and exhaustive Performance Tracking, where each prediction, like Gross Rock Volume, Net Pay, Productive Area, Porosity, FVF or Hydrocarbon Saturation, as well as the prediction of Chance factors, is available to be scrutinized for bias, within a few mouse-clicks. Confidential ©2011 3es innovation Inc. All rights reserved. Calgary, AB Canada Reusing the Wealth of Past Prospect Risk Assessment Data for Improvement of Future Assessments RAPT™ Highlights This directed Tullow towards RAPT™ – Risk Analysis and Performance Tracking from 3esi. RAPT™ provided a platform where all the stochastic predictions could be fully analyzed on a distribution by distribution basis. The import adapter provided a fast and convenient means to automate the upload of all the stochastic data on a consistent and errorless basis. With RAPT™, all the prospect assessments in the Tullow portfolio can be tracked and analyzed both as a whole, and down to any desired sub-grouping, to allow for instantly spotting any bias in the predictions and insight as to what the root causes for the biases may be. • Assess the ability of your organization to predict asset resources in a quantifiable and undisputable fashion. • Leverage the ensemble of all your portfolio risk assessments to spot systematic biases • Inspect each and all corners of all your risk analysis data systematically and effortlessly • Drill less dryholes and uneconomic wells “The adoption of RAPT™”, says Kelly “has allowed us to carry out comprehensive Performance Tracking analysis for the first time. We now have, in RAPT,™ a complete database of all our pre-drill stochastic predictions and their post-drill outcomes. We are able to review the latest predictions within the perspective of the complete portfolio, but also to re-inspect our historical data at will, as new data and new evidence becomes available. It provides Tullow’s Global Exploration Leadership Team with a tool that can rapidly identify any evidence of the existence of bias in the resource and risk evaluation process. “ “As a result, undetected biases in our collective assessments have come to the fore and have prompted initiatives within Exploration to address them. We can now confirm, what we have always known, that continuous improvement is a never ending process. We now have the means to close the loop, systematically analyze the health of our risk assessments and measure our progress in a quantifiable manner” said Kelly. For more information about any of our products, please contact us at +1-403-270-3270 or [email protected]. Head Office 200, 1601 Westmount Rd. NW Calgary, Alberta Canada T2N 3M2 tel: +1.403.270.3270 fax: +1.403.270.3343 web: www.3esi.com ————————— 3esi Europe S.L. tel: +34.932.018.872 ————————— 3esi UK Ltd. tel: +44.1235.426.126 ————————— 3esi Latin America tel: +55.21.2262.4235 ————————— 3esi USA tel: +1.713.725.0323 320, 4203 Yoakum Blvd. Houston, Texas USA 77006 Confidential ©2011 3es innovation Inc. All rights reserved. Calgary, AB Canada tel: +1.713.528.8422 web: www.roseassoc.com
© Copyright 2024 ExpyDoc
