Kingdom of Thailand Bond Market
Financing Thailand’s Future & Connecting ASEAN
Highlights
MOF awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
T-Bill Issuance Program
Progress Update
Greenshoe Option: MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
GGLB Rollover Plan
Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
Basic & Essentials
•
•
•
•
•
Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition
Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition
Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
Government Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Domestic Bond Market Development
A. Highlights
•
•
•
•
MOF Awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
1
T-Bill Issuance Program
B. Progress Update
•
•
•
•
Greenshoe Option : MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
GGLB Rollover Plan
Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
12
C. Basic & Essentials
• Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition (As of Jan 2014)
= 5,466,198 THB Mil.
(45.75% of GDP)
• Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition (As of Mar 2014) = 9,202,573 THB Mil.
(76% of GDP)
• Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
• GOVT Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
• Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond

NR Holding in THB Bond (As of Mar 2014)

(GOVT Bond : 559,677 THB Mil., BOT Bond 118,713 THB Mil., Corp Bond : 747 THB Mil.)
Net Change in NR Holding (Jan – Mar 2014)
= -28,238 THB Mil.
= 679,137 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : Net Sell -36,164 THB Mil., BOT Bond : Net Buy +7,926 THB Mil.)
This booklet is produced and printed in-house by Bond Market Development Bureau
Public Debt Management Office , Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
This booklet can be downloaded at www.pdmo.go.th
e-book
18
A: Highlights
• MOF Awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
• Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
• Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
• T-Bill Issuance Program
1
MOF Awards 2013
Presented at Best Bond Awards 2013 on April 1, 2014
Organized by Thai Bond Market Association
Winner
Runner Ups
(In alphabetical order)
: Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
: Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited
: Krung Thai Bank Limited
(In descending order)
Winner
Runner Ups
(In alphabetical order)
: Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch
: Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
: Citibank N.A.
(In descending order)
2
*Highest percentage share of allocation of all GOVT Bonds issued in FY2013 in the primary market.
**Highest percentage share of trading of all GOVT Bonds issued in FY2013 in the secondary market .
There are approximately 25-30 participants in the market.
MOF Awards 2013
Presented at Best Bond Awards 2013 on April 1, 2014
Organized by Thai Bond Market Association
Winners
(Tied)
: Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Bangkok Bank PCL.
Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
Corporation Limited
*** Highest scores voted by PDMO’s Executives
3
Looking Back @ ILB

Innovation for sophisticated investors

Instrument to hedge against Asian Inflation

First and only ILB in ASEAN since 2011

Achievement awards
Deal of the Year 2013
From Best Bond Awards 2013 (Thai Bond Market Association)
(L) Dr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand
(R) Ms. Chularat Suteethorn, Director General
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
1 April, 2014
- Best Thailand Deal 2011
- Best Local Currency Bond 2011
From Finance Asia Achievement Awards 2011
Mr. Suwit Rojanavanich, Bond Market Advisor, PDMO, MOF
2 February, 2012 (Hong Kong)
- Deal of the Year 2011
- Most Creative Issue 2011
From Best Bond Awards 2011 (Thai Bond Market Association)
(L) Dr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand
(R) Dr. Pimpen Ladpli, Acting Executive Director, Bond Market Development Bureau
10 May, 2012 (Bangkok)
Best Sovereign Bond Deal of the Year 2013 in Southeast Asia
At The 7th Annual Alpha Southeast Asia Deal and Solution Awards 2013
(R) Mr. Nattakarn Boonsri
Director, Government Bond Market Development Division
23 January, 2014 (Kuala Lumpur)
4
• Best Sovereign Bond
Deal of the Year 2013 in Southeast Asia
Thailand Capital Market
Deal of the Year 2011
• Best Thailand Deal 2011
• Best Local Currency Bond 2011
Outstanding Issuer of the Year 2011
• Best Thailand Deal of the Year 2011
• Best Sovereign Bond of the Year 2011
The Most Impressive
Local Currency Bond 2011
• Deal of the Year 2011
• Most Creative Issue 2011
• Deal of the Year 2013
Deal of the Year 2011
Looking Forward

Building up ILB283A to 100,000 MB

Enforcing market making responsibility as PDs’ duties

Possible issuance of 30yr ILB to extend ILB Yield Curve

Including in global indices (1.6% weight in Barclays EMGILB
Ex-Argentina Ex-Columbia Constrained Index, as of April 2014)
To be issued
in FY 2015
100,872MB*
5,000MB
5,000MB
5,000MB
To be issued
by end of
FY 2014
64,160MB*
TTM
ILB217A
ILB283A
7
14
To be
launched in
FY 2015-16
30
* Outstanding at the end of Q2/FY14
Thailand’s Inflation during the past 3 decades “Moderate & stable”
(headline = 3.5% / core = 2.8%) (1985-2014 avg.)
Past 10 year avg.
3%
1.5%
Source : Bank of Thailand
5
MONEY EXPO 2014
“CONNECTING LIFE”
IMPACT CHALLENGER HALL 2 – 3
8th – 11th May 2014
Booth # M2
The Launch of
SAVINGS BOND*
(SB175A)
3-year tenor
MONEY EXPO 2014
Impact Challenger Hall 2 – 3
8th – 11th May 2014
Public Debt Management Office Booth [M2]
* Eligible for Individuals and Non-Profit Institutions such as foundations, Thai Red Cross Society, and the National Council on
Social Welfare of Thailand
SAFE HAVEN
SAVINGS BOND
6
08
2545
Structure Shift… between Non-Resident and Retail Investor Holding in GOVT BOND
THB Mil.
% Share of Government Bond
Non-Resident holding in Government Bond % Share of Government Bond
Retail Investor holding in Government Bond % Share of Government Bond
29%
Savings Bond for FIDF
4%
Savings Bond for Deficit
16%
8%
424,311MB
483,839MB
381,796MB
366,490MB
255,675MB
Today
7%
Outstanding size
137,733MB
v v
25,000MB
1%
90,160MB
(End of Mar 2014)
-0-
31,577MB
-0-
Between FY 2002-2011
Average Savings Bond Outstanding
is equivalent to 400,xxx THB Mil.
Savings Bond : The Safe Haven for Retail
09
The last series
will expire in FY 2018
10
11 12 13
(Current
Outstanding : 259,470 THB Mil. , 11 Series)
A FY2014 Expiration of SB 137,733 THB Mil. (53%)
B FY2016 Expiration of 3 SB 90,160 THB Mil. (35%)
C FY2018 Expiration of 1 SB 31,577 THB Mil. (12%)
Today
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2561
334 MB
1. SB145A
2. SBST147A
80,000 MB
3. SB148A
43,303 MB
78 MB
4. SB148B
5. SB149A
10,821 MB
6. SB149B
459 MB
7. SB149B
2,738 MB
A
8. SB15NA
9. SBST166A
10. SB16DA
11. SB189A
3,930 MB
Zero
82,230 MB
4,000 MB
B
31,577 MB
C
Bond Tenors
-0-
8
:
20,000
5,000
10,000
LB296A =
LBA37DA =
LB446A =
LB616A =
LB196A =
2. LB =
ILB283A =
Maturity Date
13-Jun-2019
(Re-open
16-Jun-2023
3.625%
(Re-open
(Re-open
(Re-open
12-Mar-2028
1.25%
22-Jun-2029
4.875%
(Re-open
(Re-open
(Re-open
12-Dec-2037
4.26%
29-Jun-2044
4.675%
)
17-Jun-2061
4.85%
3.875%
Coupon
113,000
18,000
9,000
40,000
Total
15,000
9,000
9,000
25-Jun-2014
16,000
-
20,000
18-Jun-2014
11-Jun-2014
16,000
9,000
28-May-2014
4-Jun-2014
-
15,000
14-May-2014
21-May-2014
-
7-May-2014
19,000
29-Apr-2014
9,000
Total
9,000
LB616A
50-yr
23-Apr-2014
15,000
LB446A
30-yr
-
10,000
25-yr
LBA37DA
LBA37DA
16-Apr-2014
16,000
5,000
LB296A
15-yr
25,000
20,000
15-yr
ILB283A
ILB283A
Amortized Bond
9-Apr-2014
LB236A
10-yr
Government Bond Auction Schedule for Q3/FY2014
-
5-yr
LB196A
LB196A
Inflation-Linked Bond
2-Apr-2014
Auction Date
Exclusivity
MOF Outright PD ONLY
Exclusivity
9
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI
NKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP
LINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D
EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PD
DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT B
OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF
FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE
NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM
ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO
N-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI
SCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI
LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER
PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT
BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF
FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE
NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP
MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT
ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL
DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU
BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONE
ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM
ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN
T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO
N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE
LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN
FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI
SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN
TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND P
IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM
ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE
MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI
CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET
DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO
N INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON
D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE
MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO
ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL
C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER
PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT
BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF
10FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE
 To Meet : Short Term Demand
 To Manage : Funding Risk
T-Bill Supply
FY 2014
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Basis Point
Allocated
Participated
Million Baht
bps
Wednesday
7 May 2014
75,000
BCR 4.49
2.56
12
1M (32 Days) : 20,000 MB
3M (95 Days) : 20,000 MB
2.45
50,000
8
2.75
1.63
2.60
1.20
1.32
1.26
1.03
1.01
0.56
25,000
2.13
1.53
1.18
1.08
0.98
1.91 1.93
1.73
0.77
3M 20,000
2.42
1.45
2.60
1.79
1.58
4
1.07
1.02
20,000
1 M 20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
0.6
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
0.4
15,000
1.3
1.27
20,000
20,000
20,000
20,000
19,275
25,000
24,491
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
14,006
25,000
25,000
25,000
27,135
1.15
T-1=0 -
0
-0.5
-0.8
-0.5
-1.0
-1.3
-1.8
-25,000
-3.9
-3.0
-3.5
-2.0
-2.2
-2.3
-2.9
-2.4
-2.5
-2.9
-3.3
-4.2-4.4
-4.6
-2.5
-2.9
-3.7
-3.9
Q3/FY14
-4
-4.6
-4.9
-5.2
-50,000
-8
Sep
Sep 13
Oct
Oct 13
Nov
Nov 13
Dec
Dec 14
Jan
Jan 14
Feb
Feb 14
Mar
Mar 14
Apr
Apr 14
May 14
May
Jun 14
11
B: Progress Update
•
•
•
•
12
Greenshoe Option: MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
GGLB Rollover Plan
Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
•
Upgrade MOF Outright PD Privilege
Maintain
• Option
Exclusivity in 5-yr
Greenshoe Option
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Cu r rent Pr ivilege FY 2013-20 14



Exclusivity in 5-yr tenor of Government Benchmark Bond
MOF Preferred Counterparty
Quarterly dialogue with MOF of plan Bond Auction Schedule


BOT outright counterparty
Benefit of Incentive program from SET
“Potential” Privilege to be launched in FY2015
 Greenshoe Option
5 years
10 years
Greenshoe
Option
Term and Condition:
 Exercising at the AAY (Average Accepted Yield) Price
 Exercising within 1-2 days next to the auction date (T+1 to T+2)
Right to buy indicated LB in
Additional of 10-20%
of the allocated amount
Survey Results for Upgrade MOF Outright PD Privilege (13/13PDs)
Note: Under the normal market condition, PDs are expected to exercise Greenshoe option when Market Yield < AAY
1
13
5
12
11
10
9
3 2
Most Prefer
Least Prefer
7
6
7
8
7
6
5
4
4
3
2
1
GS 5 Yrs.
GS 10 Yrs.
2
2
Exclu. 10 Yrs.
GS 15 Yrs.
Exclu. 15 Yrs.
GS 7 Yrs.
GS 3 Yrs.
GS 30 Yrs.
Exclu. ILB
Exclu. 3 Yrs.
GS ILB
Results from All 13 MOF Outright PDs
Between 27 Jan 2014 - 13 Feb 2014
1st Rank
Additional MOF Outright PD Privileges Survey
1. What is the most preferable Additional Privileges?
Please Arrange 1-5 in Space By
1 = Most Prefer
3 = Prefer
5 = Least Prefer
.
.
.
.
.
.Exclusivity in 10 yr. Benchmark Bond
.Exclusivity in other Tenor of Benchmark Bond please specific
yr.
.Greenshoe Option in 5 yr. Benchmark Bond
.Greenshoe Option 10 yr. Benchmark Bond
.Greenshoe Option in other Tenor of Benchmark Bond please specific
2. Other Privileges
Greenshoe
5 Yrs
2 = More Prefer
4 = Less Prefer
Greenshoe
10 Yrs
yr.
Exclusivity
10 Yrs
7
4
2
PDs
11
PDs
PDs
PDs
13
Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation Timeline
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FY2014
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
FY2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Week 4 : Kick-off
Examine the problem and obstacle
•
•
Gathering the Problem and Obstacle
Planning to Eliminate
Meeting with Related Organization
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
-Tentative-
The Revenue Department
The Securities and Exchange Commission
Federation of Accounting Professions
Commission Office of Insurance Commission
ThaiBMA
BOT
Others
Set Transaction
Format
• Bond Selection
• Calculation
• Exchange
Approach
Marketing &
Roadshow
BS & BC Execution
18 Months
14
GGLB =
BAAC =
100,000
75,000
Bonds of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. The principal and interest of the Bonds are guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance,
and the Government of Thailand undertakes to make repayments of the principal and interest throughout of the Bonds in all respects
Bonds of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. The principal and interest of the Bonds are guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance.
PA ST
Now
BAAC148A
BAAC14OA
BAAC14OB
BAAC152A
BAAC152B
BAAC152C
BAAC153A
BAAC156A
BAAC156B
BAAC157A
BAAC157B
BAAC157C
BAAC159A
BAAC159B
BAAC159C
BAAC15OA
BAAC162A
BAAC163A
BAAC164A
BAAC166A
BAAC169A
BAAC16OA
GGLB16NA
BAAC16NA
BAAC172A
BAAC179A
BAAC189A
BAAC189B
BAAC192A
BAAC192B
BAAC208A
BAAC238A
BAAC238B
GGLB16NA
Series
32
1
50,000
BAAC
GGLB
69,580 THB Mil.
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
191,800
69,580
BAAC238A
BAAC238B
BAAC238B
BAAC238B
BAAC192B
BAAC192A
BAAC189B
BAAC189A
BAAC179A
BAAC172A
GGLB16NA
GGLB16NA
GGLB16NA
Series
13
20
BAAC
GGLB
BAAC238A
BAAC238A
50,000
BAAC16NA
BAAC16OA
BAAC169A
BAAC166A
BAAC164A
BAAC163A
BAAC162A
BAAC15OA
BAAC159C
BAAC159B
BAAC157C
BAAC159A
BAAC157B
BAAC156B
BAAC157A
BAAC156A
BAAC152C
BAAC153A
BAAC152B
BAAC152A
BAAC14OB
PRESENT
BAAC208A
75,000
BAAC208A
BAAC208A
100,000
BAAC14OA
-
BAAC148A
25,000
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
20,000
240,380
69,580 THB Mil.
Roll Over
BAAC192A
BAAC192A
BAAC192B
BAAC192B
GGLB189A
BAAC189A
BAAC189A
BAAC179A
BAAC179A
BAAC172A
BAAC172A
GGLB16NB
GGLB16NA
GGLB16OA
BAAC169A
BAAC169A
GGLB166A
GGLB164A
GGLB163A
GGLB162A
GGLB15OA
GGLB159B
GGLB159A
BAAC159A
GGLB157C
GGLB157B
GGLB157A
GGLB156B
GGLB156A
GGLB153A
GGLB152A
BAAC152B
BAAC152B
BAAC152A
BAAC152A
GGLB14OA
GGLB148A
-
BAAC14OA
BAAC14OA
25,000
29-Mar-14
GGLB148A
BAAC14OA
GGLB14OA
BAAC152A
BAAC152B
GGLB152A
GGLB153A
GGLB156A
GGLB156B
GGLB157A
GGLB157B
GGLB157C
BAAC159A
GGLB159A
GGLB159B
GGLB15OA
GGLB162A
GGLB163A
GGLB164A
GGLB166A
BAAC169A
GGLB16OA
GGLB16NA
GGLB16NB
BAAC172A
BAAC179A
BAAC189A
GGLB189A
BAAC192A
BAAC192B
BAAC208A
BAAC238A
BAAC238B
GGLB148A Parallel with SOE Bond Development
As of 27 March 2014
Building a Benchmark
Enhancing Liquidity
Consulting Market
Issue Bond Under GGLB Code to be Benchmark for SOE Bond
Re-open GGLB to Build-up Outstanding Size to Enhance Liquidity
Publicize information in all dimensions. To Increase confidence in the market.
A
100,000
Coupon 3.53%
3-Yr Benchmark Bond (re-open)
7-Yr Benchmark Bond (new)
B
GGLB148A
C
GGLB189A
20,000 THB Mil.
Coupon 4.02%
GGLB2XXX
Coupon .. %
BAAC192B
BAAC192A
GGLB189A
FY2017
BAAC189A
BAAC189A
BAAC179A
BAAC179A
BAAC172A
BAAC172A
GGLB16NB
GGLB16NA
GGLB16OA
FY2016
BAAC169A
BAAC169A
GGLB166A
GGLB164A
GGLB163A
GGLB162A
GGLB15OA
GGLB159B
GGLB159A
BAAC159A
BAAC159A
FY2015
GGLB157C
GGLB157B
GGLB157A
GGLB156B
GGLB156A
GGLB153A
GGLB152A
BAAC152B
BAAC152A
BAAC152A
GGLB14OA
-
BAAC14OA
25,000
BAAC238A
10 Aug 2014
FY2018-2023
BAAC238B
50,000
BAAC208A
75,000
GGLB16NA
Super Size
GGLB16NA
A
B
C
GGLB148A
มี.ค. 57
8A
OA
OA
2A
2B
2A
3A
6A
6B
7A
7B
7C
9A
9A
9B
OA
2A
3A
4A
6A
9A
OA
NB
NA
2A
9A
9A
9A
2A
2B
8A
8A
8B
Code Name Changed : Almost BAAC are in the scope of GGLB
15
Linking CGIF & BAHT BOND to the Development of Bond Market
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
10,000
CGIF
9,000
8,000
150,000
Total Outstanding 9.2 THB Trillion
7,000
6,000
Baht Bond
5,000
(Foreign Issuers Bond)
2,850
4,000
BAHT BOND
End of March 2014
109,174
1%
THB mln.
100,000
(For Asian Bond
0.03%
CGIF Market
Initiative)
THB mln.
3,000
2,000
1,000
Corp Bond
22%
SOEs Bond
8%
50,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IBRD
IBRD
KEXIM
(30,700 m)
Natural
Hedging
Inv’t
Grade
BOT Bond
31%
Hana
CABEI
(18,000 m)
AFD
KDB
Woori
ING
Targeted
Industry
GOVT Bond
38%
(13,000 m)
(10,000 m)
IBK
ADB
(10,500 m)
Citi
(12,300 m)
(11,553 m)
Why now?
What next?
Thailand (PDMO) is a Board member
 Set criteria
 Select corporate
 Toward becoming regional hub
 Increasing AAA Supply
 Broadening Issuer Base : Lao PDR
(PDDF.)
Timeline For Baht Bond Application Process
Nov
Dec
SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
Jan
Feb
1
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Issuance Period 9 months (Jan - Sep)
SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
2
Issuance Period 9 months (May - Jan)
SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
3
Issuance Period 9 months (Sep - May)
SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
1
Issuance Period 9 months (Jan - Sep)
APPLICATION PROCESS: 3 rounds per year (9-mth issuance period for each round)
* The approval period is based on the fiscal period under Thai government law (October – September)
16
103,434 THB mln.
THE OUTSTANDING BAHT BOND
Classified by issuers based on TTM
56% Due within Y2015
THB mln.
40,000
Hana
9%
(64,590 THB mln.)
32%
IBK
KDB
(9,600
THB mln.)
KEXIM
(36,690)
Woori
AFD
21
35,000
CABEI
%
30,000
36%
24%
(13,040)
(27,900)
25,000
SEK
CA-CIB
19%
Woori
(22,409)
CA-CIB
70%
CBA
Citi
ENBD
(71,800 THB mln.)
ING
SEK
ADB
KEXIM
ENBD
Citi
20,000
(22,034 THB mln.)
IBRD
Lao PD
Noble
KEXIM
15,000
IBK
8%
KDB
10,000
(9,066)
3%
Hana
5,000
3%
(3,874)
Hana
4%
2%
(5,000)
(3,000)
(2,235)
2%
1%
2%
(2,800)
(1,500)
(2,000)
IBRD
0
IFIs & ABMI
Korean Issuers
Others
Completely Due
(as of March 2014)
Source: PDMO
As of March 31st, 2014
Broadening Issuer’s “Qualification” to achieve “ASEAN Chosen Destination”
Twin
Inaugural
2004
IFIs
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
…
2020
II
Credit Rating
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
SPV
-0-
Issuer’s Government
Guarantee
CGIF
CGIF / Local Credit Rating
AAA
???
LAOS
I
I
NOBLE
Possible
Next Step
COPORATE BOND MARKET CLASSIFICATION
300,000
BY CREDIT
RATING
400,000
0
BY TTM
150,000
AA
A
BBB
BB
BY SECTOR
200,000
0
0
AAA
400,000
0–3
4–5
6 – 10
10+
ENERG
BANK
PROP
FIN
CONMAT
FOOD
TRANS
PETRO
COMM
ICT
AGRI
SPV
HELTH
PAPER
AUTO
TOUR
MEDIA
ETRON
800,000
17
C: Basic & Essentials
•
Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition (As of Jan 2014)
= 5,466,198 THB Mil.
(45.75% of GDP)
•
Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition (As of Mar 2014)
= 9,202,573 THB Mil.
(76% of GDP)
•
Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
•
GOVT Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
•
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
 NR Holding in THB Bond (As of Mar 2014)
= 679,137 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : 559,677 THB Mil., BOT Bond 118,713 THB Mil., Corp Bond : 747 THB Mil.)

Net Change in NR Holding (Jan – Mar 2014)
= -28,238 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : Net Sell -36,164 THB Mil., BOT Bond : Net Buy +7,926 THB Mil.)
18
Public debt Outstanding (as of January 2014) = 5.47 THB Trillion (45.75% of GDP)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF)
2. Government Debt (for FIDF)
3. Non-Financial Sate Enterprise Debt
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
5. Autonomous Agency Debt
2,731,161*
1,107,240
1,090,502
536,460
835
Public Debt Outstanding
5,466,198
Special Financial Institutions
Guaranteed Debt
9.8
%
0.54 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.02%
0.001 THB Trillion
*including 71,901 THB Mil. of External Debt
Non-Financial
Sate Enterprise Debt
19.9%
1.09 THB Trillion
GOVT Debt
50.0%
2.73 THB Trillion
GOVT Debt
(for FIDF)
20.3
%
1.11 THB Trillion
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
Forecast Public Debt to GDP
% of GDP
70%
61.7%
60.9%
60%
50%
40%
Sustainability Framework
Public Debt to GDP < 60%
60.6%
56.9%
52.2%
50.6%
48.3%
51.0%
43.5%
35.6%
45.5%
41.7%
45.86%
42.6%
45.2%
39.6%
37.3%
Balance Budget
30%
20%
14.6%
9.12%
10%
10.87%
12.52%
11.54% 11.26%
12.61%
10.20%
4.84%
9.98%
7.41%
0%
Public Debt to GDP
Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure
Source: Policy and Planning Bureau, as of 2 January 2014, Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
19
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments
1,150,000 THB Mil. per Year
($35 Bil.)**
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
%
LB 3 yrs
LB 5 yrs
LB 7 yrs
LB 10 yrs
LB 15 yrs
LB 20 yrs
LB 30 yrs
LB 50 yrs
($4.6 Bil.)**
($4.0 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)
($0.9 Bil.)
($0.6 Bil.)
150,000 THB Mil.
120,000 THB Mil.
80,000 THB Mil.
80,000 THB Mil.
60,000 THB Mil.
60,000 THB Mil.
30,000 THB Mil.
20,000 THB Mil.
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
GBI-EM Global
JP Morgan
iBoxx Asia ex Japan
Markit
7.7%
Asian Local Markets
HSBC
7.8%
7.8%
Benchmark Bond
Last Update : Feb 2014
50
30
20
15
10
7
The “Missing Composition” of
Leader role in the Bond Market
5
Government Funding Instruments
Infrastructure
3
liquidity
Benchmark
Bond
($20.4 Bil.)
($3.5 Bil.)
($3.5 Bil.)
($2.8 Bil.)
Benchmark Bond
~600,000THB Mil. (52%)
Savings Bond
~100,000THB Mil. (8%)
Amortized Bond
~100,000THB Mil (8%)
Inflation-Linked Bond
~80,000THB Mil. (7%)
($1.4 Bil.)
($1.0 Bil.)
($7.0 Bil.)
Promissory Note
~40,000THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond
~30,000THB Mil. (3%)
Bank Loan
($40 Bil.) Total
~200,000THB Mil. (18%)
1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
TTM (yrs.)
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve as of 31 March 2014
20
**Source: BOT Exchange rate as End of Mar 2014
 Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 8yrs 4mths
 Average Cost
= 4.19%
 Fixed : Floating = 87 : 13
As of Jan 2014
Total GOVT Debt = 3.77* THB Trillion
* Excluding 71,901 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Assumptions : 6 months BIBOR = 2.47%, 6 months Fixed Deposit Rate = 1.79%, Inflation = 1.93%
FIDF 1
300,000
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 1,107,240 THB Mil.
128,000
200,000
 ATM
 Avg. Cost
 Fixed : Floating
 Callable
FIDF 3
= 4yrs 7mths
= 4.29%
= 85: 15
= 13%
Maturity Profile
60%
35%
35,000 14,000
101,850
5%
39,000
69,000
40,000
101,800
37,900
75,000
68,441
39,836
25,000
27,887
58,440
141,963
64,124
40,000
100,000
0
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
TTM
Fiscal Year
Budget Deficit
On-lending Loan
Water Decree
22,000
TKK
 Callable
41%
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
0
95,205
27,800
29,800
14,000
20,000
95,936
5,500
6,500
71,000
35,000
41,900
33,581
2,200
192,730
67,000
47,000
43,000
15,700
18,900
32,500
80,025
100,872
184,110
273,994
5,783
123,704
= 8%
Maturity Profile
33%
26%
9,250
114,271
164,297
242,222
100,000
187,727
T-Bill
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 2,659,260** THB Mil.
16,000
86,630
11,257 10,000
60,000
58,247
200,000
13,248
300,000
 ATM
= 9yrs 10mths
 Avg. Cost
= 4.15%
 Fixed : Floating = 88 : 12
TTM
Fiscal Year
**Excluding 71,901 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
ATM Lengthened
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Note : Government Direct Debt = 2.66 THB Million (exclude FIDF)
As of Dec 2007
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 5 yrs
As of January 2014
ATM
9yrs 10mths
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 40 bps.
(While ATM Lengthened by 5 yrs)
4.5%
Avg. cost
4.1%
Floating
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio
(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
5441
%
%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
10%
Floating
Fixed
Fixed
90%
88%
28
26%%
33%
18%
41%
26%
12%
33%
(Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs
is less than 50% of Total Debt)
next 5 yrs year
- 6 -10
10 yrs +
next 5 yrs year 6 -10
10 yrs +
21
Bond Market Cap. = 9.2 THB Trillion
GOVT Bond = 3.4 THB Trillion
($107 Bil.)*
($283 Bil.)*
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
% Share of GDP
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
140%
128%
120%
Baht Bond
103%
100%
(For Asian Bond
CGIF Market Initiative) 0.03%
101%
80%
1%
76%
60%
Corp Bond
22%
SOEs Bond
8%
BOT Bond
31%
24%
40%
Asian Fin.
Crisis
20%
12%
Mar 2014
0%
Bank Loan /GDP
Equity/GDP
2,835,122 THB Mil.
Bond Market / GDP
Maturity Profile
BOT vs GOVT Bond
BOT ATM = 8mths GOVT ATM = 8yrs 4mth
GOVT Bond 38%
3,492,013 THB Mil.
11%
BOT
76%
17%
≤
24%
17%
MOF
28%
27%
1<yr≤3
3<yr≤5
5<yr≤10
10<yr≤50
BOT Bond Supply Rose Dramatically
(2004 – Mar 2014)
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as End of Mar 2014
End of Mar 2014
 Market share rose nearly… 3 Folds
 Outstanding size rose by… 9 times
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
60%
% Share of Domestic Bond Market
54%
(1,286,620 THB Mil.)
Domestic Bond Market 2014
38%
GOVT
50%
40%
BOT
31%
30%
20%
Classified by Issuer
Baht Bond
CGIF
0.03%
Corp Bond
22%
SOEs Bond
8%
BOT Bond
2,835,122 THB Mil.
31%
Corp Bond 22%
GOVT Bond
10%
1%
(Foreign Issuers Bond)
13%
(312,340 THB Mil.)
SOEs Bond 8%
3,492,013 THB Mil.
38%
Baht Bond 1%
0%
Mar 2014
22
End of Mar 2014
FY2007 – FY2014
Innovation of GOVT Debt Securities
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio
• Meet Long-term investors’ demand
Floating Rate Bond
• Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio
• Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
Step-up Savings Bond
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors
• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
Fixed Rate Promissory Note
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors
• Non-Benchmark tenors
50-yr Benchmark Bond
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)
10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Strong anti-inflationary signal
• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
Electronic Retail
Savings Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year
• Develop the retail bond into an electronic form  Scripless System
• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
Amortized Bond
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP
• Pay back the bond principal by installments  Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
FY 2012-2014
FY 2011
FY 2007-10
30-yr Benchmark Bond
Bond Switching & Consolidation
• Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series  Enhance liquidity in the secondary market
PDDF Activated
Upgrade
PD Privileges
(Public Debt Restructuring
and Domestic Bond Market
Development Fund)
15-yr ILB
CGIF Activated
Baht
Bond
(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Issuers
• 77 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand
and State-Owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 97 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Domestic Bond Market
(Classified by Issuers)
Domestic Bond Market
(Classified by Credit Rating)
BBB Non-rated
2% 3%
Baht Bond
CGIF 0.03%
Government Debt Securities
(Classified by Types of Investors)
1%
A
Corp Bond
8%
22%
AA 4%
Government
Government
38%
SOEs
8%
38%
SOEs
8%
BOT
BOT
31%
31%
Total of 9.2 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2014)
Total of 9.2 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2014)
NR
17%
Household
and
Non-profit
BOT
6%%
Insurance
and
Other Corporation
36%
7%
Depository
Corporation
33%
34
Total of 3.4 THB Trillion
Source : BOT (End of Feb 2014)
23
FY2008-FY2013
Key Success Indicators
1. 1. Trading Volume
2. Turnover Ratio
3. 3. Demand Concentration 4. Auction Price
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Benchmark Bond 5 yrs and Below : Highest secondary trading
volume in every year
Unit: % Share of Market
Trading Volume
5-yr Benchmark Bond’s Higher Turnover Ratio : Even the higher
outstanding size, turnover ratio is still more than 2 times
Unit: Times
LB155A
LB133A
9
29%
28%
27%
20%
LB145B
20%
7%
LB15DA
3.1
LB133A
21%
4.2
LB176A
2.8
2.4
1.5
4.2
LB196A
2.9
Top 10 GOVT Bond Series : Accounted for 90% of all GOVT bond
trading volume in secondary market
Well-Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off : Even with greater
size of issuance, the cost of funding is still at market rate
Unit: % Share of Secondary
Trading Volume
Unit: USD Bil.
+0.9 bps
90% 90%
+3.2 bps
84%
75%
76% 77%
80%
+1.4 bps
+1.2 bps
14.7
12.8
15.9
13.7
7.5
-0.4 bps
To be Updated
24
16.5
-0.2 bps
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (90% of Trading Volume)
(3,021,XXX THB Mil.)
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size
(as of Q2/FY2014)
(8% of Trading Volume)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Tier 1: >100,000MB
THB Mil.
FY2014 Q2 Market Share of Trading Volume
in Secondary Market
Tier 2
Tier 1
(9 Series)
300,000
5
250,000
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
90%
0
8% 2%
8%
50
100
200,000
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB
10
(15 Series)
150,000
50
LBA
100,000
100,000
25 15
ILB
15
50,000
LB267A
LB24DA
LB191A
LB14DA
LB175A
LB25DA
LB316A
LB171A
LB214A
LB19DA
LB157A
LB244A
LB22NA
LB183A
LB406A
LB446A
LB446A
LB145A
LB396A
LB383A
LB416A
LB183B
LBA37DA
LBA37DA
LB296A
LB296A
LB17OA
LB27DA
LB193A
LB213A
LB326A
ILB283A
ILB283A
LB283A
LB16NA
LB198A
LB167A
LB233A
0
LB196A
LB196A
LB176A
LB21DA
LB236A
LB236A
LB155A
LB15DA
LB145B
LB616A
LB616A
ILB217A
30
FY 2014 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
FY 2014 on-the-run Innovative Bond
Source : ThaiBMA
Well-Distributed Bond Maturity Profile
(as of Q2/FY2014)
The outstanding size of loan bond maturing in the next 5 years
is 1,069,019 THB Mil. (35% of Total GOVT Bond)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
THB Mil.
Current Outstanding
Current Outstanding
Current Outstanding
300,000
≥ THB 100 Bil.
= THB 50-100 Bil.
≤ THB 50 Bil.
FY 2014 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
5
250,000
FY 2014 on-the-run Innovative Bond
200,000
10
150,000
50
LBA
100,000
100,000
ILB 15
25
15
50,000
1
Source : ThaiBMA
2
3
4
5
6 – 10 years
LB616A
LB244A
LB24DA
LB25DA
LB267A
LB27DA
ILB283A
ILB283A
LB283A
LB296A
LB296A
LB316A
LB326A
LBA37DA
LBA37DA
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB416A
LB446A
LB446A
TTM
LB191A
LB193A
LB196A
LB198A
LB19DA
LB213A
LB214A
ILB217A
LB21DA
LB22NA
LB233A
LB236A
LB236A
30
LB145A
LB145B
LB14DA
LB155A
LB157A
LB15DA
LB167A
LB16NA
LB171A
LB175A
LB176A
LB17OA
LB183A
LB183B
LB21DA
LB176A
Total GOVT Bond = 43 Series
11 – 50 years
25
FY 2014
610,xxx THB Mil.
Total Fund Raising Plan
Last Updated: March 2014
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Water
Q: Will the “pause” of the
9,xxx
 Savings Bond
 Dollar Bond
 Non-Benchmark
 New Product
Bank Loan
Infrastructure
6 mths – 4 yrs
250,000 MB.
New Borrowing
(As of Sep 25th,2013)
250,000
A: No, they will not.
123,000
Savings Bond and Others
Deficit
Water Decree and
Infrastructure Bill affect
the Announced
Government Bond
Supply?
The Water Decree and
Infrastructure Bill were
planned to be raised
through short-term
“Bank Loan” which
provide more flexibility
and cost saving. Then,
they will be converted
to long-term instrument
later.
55,000
Amortized Bond – 25 years
Inflation Linked Bond
25,000
360,124 MB
Roll Over
Benchmark Bond
(5 - 15 - 30 - 50-yr)
Rollover
Govt Debt
231,000
Rollover
FIDF Debt
278,000
129,124
Benchmark Bond (10-yr)
82,000
Promissory Notes
47,124
By Instruments
By Bills
FY 2014
Government Bond Supply
7 Fixed Coupon Bonds
5 Benchmark Bonds Series
1 Inflation-Linked Bond
1 Amortized Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FY 2014 Indicative Benchmark Bond
Plan-to-issue Amount in FY 2014
Outstanding Amount as of the beginning of FY 2014
Super size
300,000MB
300,000
($10 Billion)
120,000
10
15-yr
25-yr
Inflation-Linked Bond
Amortized Bond
200,000
82,000
50
26
50,000
50,000
LB446A
30
81,205
54,000
LBA37DA
55,000
55,000 25,000
50,000
58,000
LB296A
ILB283A
115,850
LB236A
LB196A
0
181,994
15
100,000
LB616A
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
5
D
P
L
Firm
FY 2014 Government Bond Auction Result
GOVT Bond Auction is decoupled
from political situation
Classified by Quarterly Auction Schedule
:
red
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
5-10 yr Benchmark Bond
Amortized Bond
13
Million Baht
15-30-50 yr Benchmark Bond
Inflation-linked Bond
75,000
Basis Points
Basis Points
15
Dissolution of
the parliament
10
50,000
6.3
5
25,000
3.9
3.2
2.9
10,000
12,000
2.7
T-1= 0-
20,000
7,000
5,000
13,000
5,000
0.8
5,000
20,000
8,000
12,000
9,000
4,160
10,000
20,000
9,000
13,000
16,000
LB5y
LB15y
LB50y
LB10y
LB30y
ILB15y
LB5y
LB50y
-25,000
LBA25y
LB15y
LB10y
LB30y
ILB15y
LB15y
-1.2
LB5y
LB50y
-5.4
-6.1
ution of
ament
9,000
-0.2
-0.4
LBA25y
LB10y
0
LB30y
-5
-5.4
-7.0
Dec 13
-7.8
-8.3
-8.9
-50,000
-75,000
-10
-15
FY 2014 GOVT Bond Auction Results
Classified by Tenor
A
B
Q2/FY14
26 Mar 14
19 Mar 14
26 Feb 14
19 Feb 14
19 Feb 14
5 Feb 14
29 Jan 14
29 Jan 14
8 Jan 14
12 Feb 14
Q1/FY14
Dec 13
18 Dec 13
11 Dec 13
11 Dec 13
3 Dec 13
27 Nov 13
20 Nov 13
13 Nov 13
6 Nov 13
-15.0
6 Nov 13
MC :
apered
-8.1
-9.6
ALL Benchmark Bond : Fully Allocated
30-to-50-yr Benchmark Bond : Avg.Accepted LOWER than Market Price
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
5-10 yr Benchmark Bond
Million Baht
15-30-50 yr Benchmark Bond
Basis Points
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr
25,000
10yr
5yr
Basis Points
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr
15yr
30yr
15
50yr
(Exclusivity)
A
20,000
Fully Allocated
15,000
10
10,000
5
5,000
3.9
T-1= -0
20,000
20,000
20,000
13,000
12,000
16,000
7,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
9,000
9,000
5,000
8,000
9,000
0
-0.2
-0.4
-5,000
3.2
2.9
2.7
-1.2
B
-5
-10,000
-6.1
-7.0
-15,000
-7.8
-8.9
-8.1
-8.3
-10
-9.6
-20,000
-25,000
-15.0
-15
27
Net Change in Non-Resident Holding (YTD)
Net Outflow = -28,238 THB Mil.
BOT : Net Buy +7,926 MB.
GOVT : Net Sell -36,164 MB.
Sell -26,727 MB. Buy +34,653 MB.
Sell -48, 902MB. Buy +12,738 MB.
End of Mar 2014
THB Mil.
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT
-28,238
THB Mil.
BOT
GOVT
BOT Bond
+7,926
0
-36,164
GOVT Bond
2014 YTD
(End of Mar 2014)
2014
(The past 13 weeks)
End of Mar 2014
YTD in Non-resident Holding
BOT Bond & GOVT Bond
THB Mil.
T
BOT Bond
+
+
+
+7,926 THB Mil.
+
0
GOVT Bond
-36,164 THB Mil
.
2014
28
Peers
Comparison
NR Holding in Thai GOVT Bond
End of Mar 2014
is 559,677 THB Mil.
or 16% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
Relatively “moderate” share of NR holding by region average
40%
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2008 - Present)
Indonesia
32.54%
Dec’ 13
Malaysia
29.4%
30%
Dec’ 13
Peak @ 19.1%
(Apr’ 13)
20%
Thailand
Korea
9.5%
16%
End of Mar’ 14
Sep’13
10%
Japan
8.02%
Dec’ 13
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
0%
2013
2014
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
2014 Outstanding
Non-resident Holding in THB Bond = 679,137 THB Mil.
(7.38% of Thai Bond Market Capitalization)
(% share of Bond Market)
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 9,202,573
THB Mil.
Classified by Issuer (End of March 2014)
Non-Resident Holding
(THB Million)
Issuer
End of Mar 2014
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
(9,202,573 THB Million)
GOVT Bond
559,677
6.08%
1%
BOT Bond
118,713
1.29%
CGIF Market Initiative) 0.03%
SOE Bond
0
Baht Bond
(Foreign Issuers Bond)
(For Asian Bond
Corp Bond
747
22%
SOEs Bond
8%
GOVT Bond Outstanding
3,492,013
31%
7.38%
BOT Bond Outstanding
2,835,122
THB Mil.
Non-Resident
559,677 THB Mil.
BOT Bond
0.01%
679,137
TOTAL
Corp Bond
0%
THB Mil.
Non-Resident
118,713 THB Mil.
%
%
2,835,122 THB Mil.
GOVT Bond
38%
Domestic Investors
2,932,336 THB Mil.
84
%
3,492,013 THB Mil.
Domestic Investors
2,716,409 THB Mil.
95.8
%
29
Chularat Suteethorn Director-General, Public Debt Management Office
Suwit Rojanavanich Bond Market Advisor
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office
Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
For Further Information :
Pimpen Ladpli
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5802
[email protected]
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Acting Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Nattakarn Boonsri
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5803
[email protected]
Director of Government Bond Market Development Division
Sophida Sritomya
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5804
[email protected]
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Nakarin Prompat
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5812
[email protected]
Acting Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Chakrit Phothisuk
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5811
[email protected]
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5806
[email protected]
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5816
[email protected]
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5809
[email protected]
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5818
[email protected]
+66 2271 7999 ext. 5801
[email protected]
Economist
Kasirat Suwanpen
Economist
Phimonphan Tanwattana
Economist
Kittiya Chaithep
Economist
Chanikarn Chaiyasena
Economist
Pathida Rattanapinyo
Economist
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