International Conference on Space (ICS-2014) Organized by
SUPARCO, IST, and ISNET
12-14 Nov 2014, Islamabad
ZerminaQayyum1, Salman Tariq2, Zafar Iqbal Zafar3, Hafiz Ali Imran4, M.Awais Ali5,
UmerAlvi6
1,3,4,5,6Department
2
of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan <[email protected]>
Lecturer, Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
,
www.pu.edu.pk
1
This Presentation covers
 Introduction
 Aviation Weather Hazards
 Study Objectives
 Study Area
 Methodology
 Results and Discussions
 Conclusions
2
Introduction
Major Meteorological Elements
 Pressure
 Relative Humidity
 Temperature
 Wind Speed
Weather Related Aviation Accidents
(Worldwide)
Total accidents:
19,562
Weather related
21.8%
Non weather related
78.2 %
Main cause:
Wind
3
Introduction
Distribution of wind condition in weather related accidents
Source: National Air Traffic Controller Association. Massachusetts Avenue, N.W 2011:www.natca.org.
4
Introduction
OPLA Lahore(CIV/MIL)
Wind rose Plot [Time Domain: Jan]
Period of record : 1 Jan 2009-31 Jan 2010
Obs. Count: 4345 Calm: 40.0% Avg. Speed: 3.3 mph
N
Lahore Airport
5
Introduction
Weather Related Accidents by Other Parameters
Source: National Air Traffic Controller Association. Massachusetts Avenue, N.W 2011:www.natca.org.
6
Introduction
Distribution of Visibility/Ceiling Conditions in weather related
accidents
Source: National Air Traffic Controller Association. Massachusetts Avenue, N.W 2011:www.natca.org.
7
Aviation Weather Hazards
 Summer aviation hazards
 Dust raised by wind
 Dust in suspension
 Dust storm
 Winter aviation hazards
 Fog
 Mist
 Summer as well as winter aviation hazards
 Thunderstorm
 Rain
8
Study Objectives

The main objective of this study was to determine role of
meteorological parameters (temperature, pressure, R.H, wind
speed) in understanding weather phenomena such as dust raising /
suspension / storms, fog, mist, thunderstorms, and rain that cause
aviation accidents.
9
Study Area
Lahore
Lahore
10
Methodology
Literature Review
(Flow Chart)
Ground-based Data Acquisition
(Weather Reports)
Data Extraction and
Normalization
Data Processing
Analysis
Results
11
Data used
Following meteorological reports were obtained from Pakistan Meteorological
Department, Lahore:
 Summer Report - 2009 to 2010 (May, June, July, and August)
 Winter Report - 2009 to 2010 (December, January and February)
12
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust raised by wind
May
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
29oC
MSL Pressure on 19-05-2009
1002.0
1001.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
44 %
14 Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
995.0
994.0
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Before the dust raising winds were blown, and pressure started decreasing during past 3-10 hours as
shown in Fig.1. At the time of dust raising winds pressure increased gradually.
13
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust raised by wind
May
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
36 oC
MSL Pressure on 13-5-2010
1002.0
1001.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
34%
14 Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
995.0
994.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Dust raising winds were observed at low pressure around 14 GMT as shown in Fig.2.
14
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust raised by wind
May
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
36 oC
Relative Humidity & Temperature on 13-5-2010
50.0
40.0
Avg.
R.H
34%
R.H & Temp
Month
Year
30.0
Temp
20.0
R.H
10.0
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
14 Knots
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
At that time temperature decreased and relative humidity increased gradually as shown in Fig.3.
15
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust raised by wind
June
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
35oC
Relative Humidity & Temperature on 6-6-2010
70.0
60.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
38%
14 Knots
R.H & Temp
Month
Year
50.0
40.0
30.0
Temp
20.0
R.H
10.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
At that time temperature decreased and relative humidity increased around 18 GMT as shown in
Fig.4.
16
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust in Suspension
May
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
34oC
Avg.
R.H
35%
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
Graphical Representation
MSL Pressure on 30-05-2009
1002.0
9 Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000.0
998.0
996.0
994.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Dust in suspension was observed at high temperature and low relative humidity. There was fall in
pressure up to 2-3 mb when the dust was suspended as shown in Fig.5
17
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust in Suspension
Month
Year
Atmospheric
Parameters
Graphical Representation
Avg. Temp
27oC
Avg. R.H
39%
Avg.
Max. Wind
Speed
6 Knots
MSL Pressure on 25-05-2010
MSL Pressure
May
2010
1002.0
1001.0
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
995.0
994.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Dust suspension was observed when pressure decreased gradually up to 1-2 mb.
18
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust Storm
Month
Year
Atmospheric
Parameters
Graphical Representation
Avg. Temp
23oC
MSL Pressure on 15-5-2010
1002.0
1001.0
Avg.
R.H
67%
MSL Pressure
May
2010
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
995.0
Avg.
Max. Wind
Speed
24 Knots
994.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Dust storm occurred when pressure was decreased rapidly up to 4-5 mb.
19
Results and Discussions
Summer Aviation Hazards
 Dust Storm
June
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Avg.
R.H
Graphical Representation
32oC
Relative Humidity & Temperature on 24-6-2010
90.0
80.0
55%
R.H & Temp
Month
Year
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
Temp
30.0
R.H
20.0
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
24 Knots
10.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
At the time of dust storm occurrence high temperature and low relative humidity were observed as
shown in Fig.6.
20
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Fog
December
2008
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Avg.
R.H
Graphical Representation
< 14oC
MSL pressure on 27-12-2008
1018.0
1017.0
> 85 %
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
1011.0
Wind
Calm
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Before the fog formed, pressure started increasing during past 2-6 hours around 6 GMT as shown
in Fig.7. It generally dissipated when a low pressure system was approached and wind started
blowing.
21
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Fog
Jan
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
10oC
MSL pressure on 16-01-2009
1018.0
1017.0
Avg.
R.H
93%
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
Wind
Speed
3 Knots
1011.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
During that pressure decreased up to 1-2 mb.
22
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Fog
Jan
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
10oC
MSL pressure on 13 01-2010
1018.0
1017.0
Avg.
R.H
97 %
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
Wind
Speed
4 knots
1011.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Fog was observed when pressure increases gradually up to 1-2 mb.
23
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Mist
December
2008
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
< 10oC
MSL pressure on 27-12-2008
1018.0
1017.0
Avg.
R.H
< 90 %
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
Wind
Speed
Zero
Knots
1011.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Close relationship was observed between fog and mist. Fog was converted into mist when pressure
increased abruptly up to 1-2 mb around 6 GMT as shown in Fig.8.
24
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Mist
December
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
15oC
MSL pressure on 16-12-2009
1018.0
1017.0
Avg.
R.H
< 90%
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
Wind
Calm
1011.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Fall or rise in pressure in the persistence of mist was not sudden rather there exist a negligible fall
or rise in pressure of 0.6-1 mb in the past 24 hours. Air was calm during misty conditions.
25
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Mist
Jan
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
17oC
MSL Pressure on 02-01-2009
1020.0
1019.0
Avg.
R.H
84 %
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1018.0
1017.0
1016.0
1015.0
Wind
Speed
Zero
Knots
1014.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Mist was observed when pressure increased up to 1-2 mb around 6 GMT as shown in Fig.9.
26
Results and Discussions
Winter Aviation Hazards
 Mist
Jan
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Avg.
R.H
Graphical Representation
23oC
MSL pressure on 27-01-2010
1018.0
1017.0
87%
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1016.0
1015.0
1014.0
1013.0
1012.0
1011.0
Wind
Calm
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Mist was observed when pressure increased abruptly 1-2 mb. During this Wind was calm.
27
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
May
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
26oC
MSL Pressure 03-05-2009
1012.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
61%
14
Knots
1010.0
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1008.0
1006.0
1004.0
1002.0
1000.0
998.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
In this month eleven thunderstorms were observed. One of them was due to gradual fall in
pressure of 2.2 mb during past 24 hours and remaining ten were observed due to rapid fall in
pressure approximately 3 mb during past 6-8 hours around 8 GMT as shown in Fig.10.
28
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
May
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
Graphical Representation
28oC
MSL Pressure 12-5-2010
1002
51%
24
Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000
998
996
994
992
990
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
In this month nine thunderstorms were observed. At that time Pressure increased abruptly and
when pressure decreased it dissipated.
29
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
July
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
28oC
MSL Pressure 03-07-2009
1012.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
82%
10
Knots
1010.0
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1008.0
1006.0
1004.0
1002.0
1000.0
998.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
Six thunderstorms were observed in this month. Five thunderstorms were observed due to gradual fall in pressure
during past 24 hours and remaining one was observed due to rapid fall in pressure of 3-5 mb during past 8-10
hours. At the time of thunderstorm, pressure increased while temperature decreased.
30
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
July
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
30oC
MSL Pressure 12-7-2010
1002
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
83%
15
Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000
998
996
994
992
990
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
Fifteen thunderstorms were observed in this month, nine of them were heavy thunderstorms. At
that time pressure observed was greater than 994.0 mb around 6 GMT as shown in Fig.11.
31
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
July
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
30oC
Relative Humidity and Temperature on 12-7-2010
100
80
Avg.
R.H
83%
R.H & Temp
Month
Year
60
Temp
40
R.H
20
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
15
Knots
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Thunderstorm was observed at low temp and high relative humidity as shown in Fig.12.
32
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Thunderstorm
Feb
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
17oC
MSL Pressure 03-02-2009
1012.0
1010.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
76%
7 knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1008.0
1006.0
1004.0
1002.0
1000.0
998.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
In this month five thunderstorms were observed. Thunderstorm was usually associated with rain.
At the time of thunderstorm pressure increased up to 1-2 mb.
33
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Rain
July
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
Graphical Representation
29oC
MSL Pressure 12-7-2010
1002
90%
4 knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000
998
996
994
992
990
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
Rain was always accompanied by thunderstorm when pressure decreased around 14 GMT (hours).
34
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Rain
Aug
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
31oC
MSL Pressure 15-8-2009
1002.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
79%
7
Knots
1001.0
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Short duration rainfall was not associated with thunderstorm whereas the duration of rainfall was
prolonged when it was accompanied by thunderstorm up to 2-3 hours around 12 GMT as shown in
Fig.13.
35
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Rain
Aug
2010
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
30oC
MSL Pressure 12-8-2010
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
1002
81%
4 Knots
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000
998
996
994
992
990
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT(hours)
During this Average temperature and Relative Humidity was observed 30oC and 81% respectively.
At that time maximum wind speed was observed 4 knots.
36
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Rain
Jan
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
17oC
MSL Pressure 15-01-2009
1002.0
Avg.
R.H
Avg.
Max.
Wind
Speed
88%
6 Knots
1001.0
MSL Pressure
Month
Year
1000.0
999.0
998.0
997.0
996.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Gradual fall of pressure during past 24 hours caused rain. Duration of rainfall was around 12 GMT
(hours).
37
Results and Discussions
Summer as well as Winter Aviation Hazards
 Rain
Feb
2009
Atmospheric
Parameters
Avg.
Temp
Graphical Representation
10oC
R.H & Temp 10-02-2009
100.0
80.0
R.H
Wind
Speed
80%
7
Knots
R.H& Temp
Month
Year
60.0
Temp
40.0
R.H
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
GMT (hours)
Rainfall was observed to occur due of gradual fall in pressure in past 24 hour. Hourly
variations in pressure did not cause rain. Relative humidity during rain was almost
greater than 80% around 11 GMT as shown in Fig.14.
38
Conclusions
 We have examined that all of these weather phenomena were
greatly influenced by change in meteorological parameters, which
ultimately cause aviation accidents.
 It was investigated that dust storm was the major summer hazard
for aviation and flights should be delayed/cancelled.
 During winter season, fog creates low visibility thus avoid flying.
 Thunderstorms are often followed/accompanied by heavy rains in
both summer and winter seasons, causing major aviations
accidents.
 Such meteorological studies are important to monitor/avoid
aviations accidents.
39
References
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Applied Meteorology, vol. 20, pp.15-29, 1981.
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Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia
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 How
We
Made
the
First
web.org/history/wright/wriframe.htm
Flight.
Orville
Wright,
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Cengage Learning, pp.372-378.
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