2014 Year-end results presentation

Final Results
Presentation
October 2014
Strategic Update &
Grohe Transaction
Financial & Segmental
Review
Group Prospects &
Conclusion
Appendices
2
Strategic update &
Grohe transaction
Financial & Segmental
Review
Group Prospects &
Conclusion
Appendices
Strategic Update
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
3
Group strategic update
Strategic refocus:
•
•
•
•
Retain minority stakes in manufacturing
brands &
increased focus on Trading & Distribution
Core competence of Trading & Distribution
‒ Critical expertise
‒ Economies of scale
‒ High barriers to entry
‒ Full package service
Imperative to be Master Distributor
‒ Owned and un-owned brands
‒ World-class logistics
‒ African expansion
BUT, Manufacturing volumes too small to
justify high tech investment
Therefore best option: Join with international
manufacturers
Strategic Update
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
1st step is Grohe transaction
Global partner Grohe …
… factories in:
- Japan
- China
- Thailand
- Germany
- Portugal
- Canada
- USA
4
Transaction structure
Structure pre-transaction
Dawn
100%
100%
Main
Street
DCH
100%
WHS
100%
61%
Apex
Valves
100%
Vaal
100%
Isca
100%
Libra
100%
49%
Exipro
Swazi
Cobra
•
•
•
•
•
•
Grohe Transaction
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
Other Dawn
Manufacturing
companies:
DPI
(100%)
Sangio (100%)
Heunis (49%)
Ubuntu (51%)
Swan (51%)
Promax (60%)
• AST (51%)
• WIiN (60%)
• Dawn HR
(58%)
• Dawn
Marketing &
Design (80%)
5
Transaction structure
Structure post-transaction
Grohe
Dawn
51%
100%
100% 49%
100%
Main
Street
DCH
100%
WHS
100%
100%
100%
Apex
Valves
Vaal
100%
Isca
100%
Libra
100%
49%
Exipro
Swazi
Cobra
100%
Grome
Grohe Transaction
• Grohe call option & Dawn put option
‒ To increase share to 75.1%, exercisable in
10-12 yrs
‒ Consolidated EBITDA ≥R1bn x 9 P:E
• 33% dividend p.a. after servicing debt
• Main Str. incl.: Julian Henco (CEO) & Derek Tod
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
•
•
•
•
•
•
Other Dawn
Manufacturing
companies:
DPI
(100%)
Sangio (100%)
Heunis (49%)
Ubuntu (51%)
Swan (51%)
Promax (60%)
• AST (51%)
• WIiN (60%)
• Dawn HR
(58%)
• Dawn
Marketing &
Design (80%)
6
Benefits to Dawn shareholders
Grohe will globalise Building manufacturing
base to maximise African growth
Dawn sells 51% of Watertech & Sanware
Manufacturing and receives:
Distribution of Watertech &
Sanware in Africa*
• Distribution rights
‒ Retain existing rights^
‒ Expand exclusive rights in
high growth markets for Grohe
products
• Utilisation of Dawn Logistics’
excess capacity over time
Benefits from 49% retained in Watertech & Sanware
• Benefits from global Grohe group factories:
‒ Global technology expertise
‒ Access to additional global markets for Watertech
& Sanware
‒ Leading R&D
‒ Sourcing products & components at better cost
‒ Opportunity for global production rationalisation
• Grohe non-binding commitment to ↑ EBITDA by ± 17%
p.a. (>R1bn in10 yrs)
• Utilisation of excess capacity in factories
^ For minimum 3 yrs
* The territory includes continent of Africa south of the Sahara & the Indian Ocean Islands
Grohe Transaction
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
7
Salient details
Value created through Watertech & Sanware
R1.4 bn
• 100% original purchase cost over 2-year period
R0.3 bn
• 100% independent valuation in 2014
(75% of market cap of Dawn at time of announcement)
R1.7 bn
Grohe will acquire 51% for cash consideration
• 9 x R191m EBITDA or 18 P:E
R880m
Less: Loan input, share of Grome purchase cost, net debt adjustment &
transaction costs
R130m
Net cash consideration
R750m
Initially pay off all debt (R600m)
Grohe Transaction
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
R150m cash left on hand
8
Financial effects
Acquisitions to restore EBITDA
• Acquisition criteria
• H1 F2015 to be negatively
‒ Complementary sectors
affected by ±R18m*
‒ Preferably controlling stakes in branded trading
once-off costs of
businesses
transaction
How?
‒ Also, significant minority stakes in branded manufacturers
‒ Provide additional trading & distribution volumes
• Dawn to replace R46m
• Active discussions with various targets at p:e’s of 5-8x
(51%) of earnings
‒ Assuming avg 7x p:e
acquired by Grohe
‒ R320m investment needed to replace R46m earnings sold
* Estimate as per circular
Grohe Transaction
• Use R150m cash + new debt to acquire businesses in core
competency
• Re-gear as necessary
‒ Maximum total debt < 2.5 x EBITDA
‒ < 2.0 if economy worsens
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
9
Strategic Update &
Grohe Transaction
Financial & Segmental
Review
Group Prospects &
Conclusion
Appendices
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
10
Basis of reporting
1. Adoption of IFRS 11
• Accounting for JVs as Associates
2. IFRS 5
• Account for transaction assets* as Held For Sale
‒ Income statement restated for F2013 & F2014
‒ Balance Sheet only restated for F2014
‒ Cash flow statement combined
* Transaction assets include: Cobra, Isca, Apex Valves, Libra, Vaal & Exipro
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
11
F2014 HEPS breakdown
• H1 F2014 strong growth
• H2 F2014 weak
‒ Very weak Building segment
‒ Weaker results from Infrastructure off high base
100
-24% y-o-y
81.7
66.1
48.9
38.0
40
16.3
H2 28.0
50.1
H2 9.0
H1 38.1
H1 41.1
F2013
F2014
-20
F2009
Performance Review
F2010
F2011
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
F2012
12
F2014 : Building performance
• 4 once-off factors:
‒ Mining strikes (indirect effect)
‒ Excessive Gauteng rainfall & election disruptions
‒ Harshly negative currency effect on AST
‒ Start-up losses at WiiN & new AST operations
• Plus much weaker H2 GDP; consumers stretched further
‒ Buildings Completed# -10.7% vs Dawn Building revenue +8%
# Source:
Stats SA; BMI-BRSCU Workings
F2014 vs F2013
Trading
Acquisitive
Volume
+2
-2
Price Gross revenue
+8
2 208 (+8%)
PBIT
36.2 (-45%)
HEPS
-42%
Associates (AST & Heunis Steel)
-R2m
Sanware & Watertech (Held for sale)
-24%
Total Building*
+2
-2
+8
2 208 (+8%)
36.2 (-45%)
-20%
* 1. Total Building Revenue and PBIT consists of Trading only. Watertech and Sanware are Held for Sale & therefore reflect in HEPS only
2. Taking IFRS5 effects into account
3. Segment interest charges not allocated to company level performance
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
13
F2014 : Infrastructure performance
• Good performance, but negatively impacted by
‒ Mining strikes (cost R9m PBIT in H2)
‒ Higher finance charges on acquisitions & working capital to fund growth
• DPI:
‒ Excellent performance; volumes remained strong
‒ Water & sanitation civil engineering contracts
‒ 50% increase in African exports
‒ DPI International had good H2
‒ First full-year contribution from Swan & Ubuntu
• Incledon:
‒ Strong H1 but slower H2; high base after ductile pipe contract
‒ Delayed projects (elections)
• Associates: IPS start-up losses, 1-off Sangio payment; other associates disappointing
F2014 vs F2013
DPI (incl. Swan,
Ubuntu & Sangio)
Incledon
Acquisitive
Volume
Price
Gross revenue
PBIT
HEPS
+42
+6
+18
1 330 (+66%)
+133%
+96%
-
+6
+6
1 322 (+12%)
+48%
+47%
-81%
Associates (Fibrex, Simba, Aqualia, IPS & Sangio)
Total Infrastructure*
+16
+6
+12
2 652 (+34%) 99.3 (+69%)
+6%
* Segment interest charges not allocated to company level performance
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
14
F2014 : Solutions performance
3 major impacts on Logistics’ earnings
• Phasing in of new warehouse management system
‒ Big improvement, but temporary changeover costs
• Assumed control of DPI and Incledon logistics
‒ Prices kept low
• Renewal of rentals
‒ Initial negative impact
F2014 vs F2013
Volume
Price
Gross Revenue
Logistics (DDC & Cargo)
+14
+6
330
Loss
Other services
+14
+6
119
Flat
Total Solutions
+14
+6
449 (18,5%)
-31%
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
PBIT
15
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
Rm
Revenue
% change
+18
F2013
3 763
* Gross
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
16
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
Margin %
F2014
F2013
Building
1.7%
3.3%
Infrastructure
4.4%
3.4%
Solutions
2.2%
3.8%
Group
2.4%
2.4%
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
Operating
expenses
% change
+18
+16
-
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
F2014
F2014
Excl.
impairments
Like-forLike
+17.5%
+10.4%
17
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
26.5
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
Impairments & de-recognition
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
-
Rm
Goodwill impairments
Rm
Gain on de-recognition
Dawn Kitchen Fittings
33.6
De-recognition of Sangio 14.9
AST
Total impairments
Performance Review
% change
+18
+16
-
7.8
41.4
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
Total gain
14.9
18
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
Impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
26.5
80.5
% change
+18
+16
-13
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
19
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
% change
+18
+16
-13
112%
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
• Average net debt for the period increased to R613m (R465m in F2013)
‒ Substantial capex
‒ Acquisitions & start-ups
‒ Funding for higher working capital
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
20
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
(Loss)/Income from associates & joint ventures
Associates & Joint Ventures income
Associates & Joint Ventures impairments
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
* Excl. R19.3m impairments
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
(18.8)
0.5
(19.3)
% change
+18
+16
-13
+112
-429%
-
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
5.7
5.7
0.0
21
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
(Loss)/Income from associates & joint ventures
Tax expense
Effective tax rate
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
(18.8)
14.8
66.5%
% change
+18
+16
-13
+112
-429
-14
-
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
5.7
17.2
26.5%
• F2014 effective tax rate affected by impairments and de-recognitions
• F2015 likely to exceed 40%; non-deductible once-off costs related to Grohe
• Sustainable future tax rate expected to revert to 29-30% range
‒ Higher legislated tax rates in other Africa countries of operation
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
22
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
(Loss)/Income from associates & joint ventures
Tax expense
Profit associated with assets held for sale
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
(18.8)
14.8
92.9
% change
+18
+16
-13
+112
-429
-14
-1
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
5.7
17.2
93.5
23
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
(Loss)/Income from associates & joint ventures
Tax expense
Profit associated with assets held for sale
Minority interests
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
(18.8)
14.8
92.9
7.4
% change
+18
+16
-13
+112
-429
-14
-1
+172
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
5.7
17.2
93.5
2.7
Swan & Ubuntu performance strong
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
24
Income statement analysis
Year ended 30 June 2014
Rm
Revenue
PBIT - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT margin % - before impairments & de-recognition
PBIT
Net finance cost
(Loss)/Income from associates & joint ventures
Tax expense
Profit associated with assets held for sale
Minority interests
EPS
HEPS
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
F2014
4 436
107.0
2.4%
80.5
58.3
(18.8)
14.8
92.9
7.4
31.6
50.1
% change
+18
+16
-13
+112
-429
-14
-1
+172
-53
-24
F2013
3 763
92.4
2.4%
92.4
27.4
5.7
17.2
93.5
2.7
66.7
66.1
25
Income statement analysis
Rm
F2014
% change
F2013
EPS
31.6
-53
66.7
HEPS*
50.1
-24
66.1
-53
156.3
Difference between Attributable Earnings & Headline Earnings
Attributable Earnings
74.1
Profit on disposal of property, plant & equipment
-1.3
0.1
Impairments (Dawn Kitchen Fittings & AST)
41.4
0.7
Gain/loss on de-recognition/re-recognition of Sangio
-14.8
-
Tax & Minorities impact of the above
-0.4
-0.0
Share of profits of associates, joint ventures & disposal group
-0.4
-0.1
Impairments - AST Goodwill and AST Nigeria
19.0
-
Headline Earnings
117.6
-24
157.0
* Excludes R41,4m of impairments and R14,9 gain on de-recognition of Sangio
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
26
F2014 Headline Earnings key factors
Major influences on F2014 Headline Earnings
F2013 HEADLINE EARNINGS
157.0
Less F2014 movements:
• Building Trading companies down
-10.6
• Infrastructure companies up
40.7
• Net increase in interest paid
-22.2
• Associates - mainly AST (excl. R10m impairment) down
-17.9
• Companies Held for Sale (Watertech & Sanware) down, normalising for IFRS5
-23.3
• Minorities’ share of Ubuntu, Swan, Dawn HR & Marketing earnings increase
-4.7
• Other
-1.4
F2014 HEADLINE EARNINGS
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
117.6
27
Cash flow
Remaining Dawn
businesses
(New Basis)
Watertech
& Sanware
F2014
(Old Basis)
F2013
(Old Basis)
69.7
46.5
116.2
80.9
Cash generated from ops
159.3
174.8
334.1
327.7
Working capital changes
-224.4
6.0
-218.3
-33.2
Net Finance charges
-59.5
-24.7
-84.2
-44.6
Tax Paid
-42.6
-27.3
-70.0
-46.4
Investing & Financing activities
219.0
-95.5
123.5
-168.2
Closing cash balance
121.8
80.1
201.8
116.2
Rm
Opening cash balance
• -R258.4m Investing activities mainly:
‒ R71m for acquisitions & start-ups
‒ R194m capex (R41m maintenance & R153m expansionary)
> Software for ERP, Fleet, Plant & Equipment
> Benefits to flow from F2015 & R30m cash return from MCEP
• R381.9m Financing activities include R204m net debt repayment, R618m cheaper refinancing proceeds &
R39m dividend
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
28
Closing working capital analysis
4.1
15%
3.8
14.6%
3.0
14.1%
12.9%
1.5
12.1%
10%
0.0
Dec 2013
Jun 2013
F2014
F2013
Net W.C.
50
41
Debtors
58
56
Stock
67
63
Creditors
75
78
Performance Review
Dec 2014
Reportable turnover
(rolling 12 months) RHS
R billion
Percent
3.4
4.4
4.5
Working capital ratio LHS
Maximum of
15% - LHS
Jun 2014
Comment on working capital days (new targets set post Grohe)
In line with new net w.c. target of 55 days
Exceeds 55 day target range; 2 day increase due to increased revenue, bad
debts still <0.1% of revenue
Full effect of weaker exchange rate, but mainly due to overstocking in
Manufacturing & Wholesale (merchants destocked)
8 days more than stock days
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
29
Gearing
600
537
571
600
400
70%
62%
300
346
71%
341
317
302
60%
244
201
26%
100
29% 30%
21%
40%
179
151
33%
26%
16%
13%
20%
22%
10%
Jun 14
Dec 13
Jun 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Dec 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Dec 09
Jun 09
EBITDA interest cover
Dec 08
Jun 08
Gearing
Performance Review
80%
356
200
-
508
Net gearing % (RHS)
500
Max.
gearing
of 50%
100%
Net interest-bearing debt (LHS)
0%
• Average between reporting periods = 40%
• 4.1x vs 6.3x at June 2013
• Target: Sustainable EBITDA interest cover >6x not achieved
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
30
Remaining key performance ratios
Post Grohe transaction, annualised
DPS
RoIC (pre-impairments)
Free cash flow (excl interest)
Cash conversion ratio
Achieved in:
F2014
Goal
F2013
16.5 cps
16.5 cps
4x cover
9.0%
12.1%
>16%
(WACC = 10.5%)
R41m
R186m
>R100m
16%
76%
>75%
NOTE: Cash conversion ratio excludes expansionary capex of R146m in F2014 (R85m in F2013), acquisition related
investments of R84m and dividend R39m
Performance Review
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
31
Strategic Update &
Grohe Transaction
Building
• Consolidated
• Associates
Infrastructure
• Consolidated
• Associates
Dawn Solutions
Financial & Segmental
Review
Group Prospects &
Conclusion
Dawn International
Conclusion
Segmental Review
Appendices
32
Building Outlook
Building – Consolidated Companies
Trading
Negative forces
• Markets remain tough
• R10m indirect negative PBIT impact from NUMSA strike
Positive forces unlikely to fully compensate in H1 F2015
• Kitchen Fittings refocused & starting to turn around (from Q1)
• Addition of well-known brands to enhance offering (from H2)
Target margins: Short term 2-4%; Medium term 5-7%
Building – Associate Companies
Main Street
(Watertech &
Sanware)
• Watertech: Strong focus on improving margins bearing fruit
• Sanware: Vaal performing well; biggest improvement from Libra
Heunis Steel
• Record F2014; further improving world-class manufacturing
AST
• Growing off low base after Nigerian impairment; focus on turning
underperformers
Segmental
OutlookReview
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
33
Infrastructure Outlook
Infrastructure – Consolidated companies
Positives:
• Record order books at DPI & Incledon (see appendix)
‒ Orders picking up after post-election slump
‒ Demand stabilised & market consolidation
‒ Market share gains
Negatives:
• NUMSA strike impact - H1 F2015 PBIT R28m; fully clawed back in H2
DPI
Incledon
PVC (DPI & Swan): Benefit from new capex in H2 F2015
HDPE (Sangio): Scrap rates declining; further strong focus in F2015
Fabrication (Ubuntu): High value-added product & expanding product range
Post-strike mining sector recovery critical
‒ Large, extended contracts at Harmony, Sasol & Anglo
• Key DWAF project still not awarded
Infrastructure margin targets remain: Short term 3-5%; Medium term 5-8%
•
•
•
•
Infrastructure – Associate Companies
DPI in
Africa
IPS
• DPI in Africa improving off F14 low base
‒ Elections in Tanzania to spur Simba demand
• Angolan government started spending since May & large projects underway
• IPS needs to find more traction in market after start-up losses
Segmental
OutlookReview
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
34
Dawn Solutions Outlook
Dawn Solutions
• H1 F2015 still impacted by roll-out of new business systems
• Growth from H2 F2015+
‒ Integration of remaining Infrastructure manufacturing
operations and cost savings at Cargo
‒ Distribution to cross-border operations
> Consolidated loads & economies of scale
Logistics
(DDC & Cargo)
• Medium term: Greater economies of scale from Grohe volumes
‒ Utilisation of excess warehousing capacity
Other services
(HR, Marketing, IT & Packaging,
Financial, Projects)
Segmental
OutlookReview
• Growing non-group client base
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
35
Dawn International Outlook
Note: Dawn International is incorporated in the Building & Infrastructure segmental results, but
discussed separately here to provide further detail
F2014
Gross
Revenue*
(Rm)
% ch.
vs
F2013
Outlook
1 562
+23
• Target: increase contribution from Africa to
group revenue (from 20% to 33%)
‒ Assisted by Grohe transaction
‒ Creates a strong base for expansion into
surrounding regions
Exports from SA
806
+24
• Benefits from Grohe transaction
DPI in Africa
548
+26
• Increasing growth, incl. acquisitions
AST in Africa
208
+7
Total International
• AST now distribution arm of DAWN & Grohe
product in Africa
*Revenue incl. Associates & JVs at 100%, as well as inter-company sales
Segmental
OutlookReview
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
36
Conclusion
H1 F2015 Positives:
• Growth at top line & gross margins maintained at both Building & Infrastructure
• Expansionary capex much lower + focus on cost reduction
• Non-recurrence of Kitchen Fittings loss
• Normalised working capital & improved associate earnings after sale of Building Manufacturing
H1 F2015 positives more than negated by:
• Start-up businesses not yet profitable
• R18m once-off Grohe transaction costs
• R38m PBIT impact of 5-week strike & related under recoveries
• Finance costs still high
• H1 F2015 likely to be substantially down on H1 F2014’s high base
• H2 F2015 onwards:
‒ Sharply lower finance costs
‒ Benefits of cost cuts
‒ Improvements as Trading & Distribution benefits of Grohe transaction come into
play
Segmental
Review
Conclusion
Audited group results for the year ended 30 June 2014
37
Certain statements in this presentation may be defined as forward looking statements within the meaning of the United States
Securities legislation.
Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual
results, performance or achievements of the company to be materially different from the future results, performance or
achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by
words such as ‘expect’, ‘believe’, ‘anticipate’, ‘plan’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘project’, ‘target’, ‘predict’, ‘outlook’ and words of similar
meaning.
Forward looking statements are not statements of fact but statements by the management of Dawn Limited based on its current
estimates, projections, beliefs, assumptions and expectations regarding the group’s future performance.
No assurance can be given that forward-looking statements will prove to be correct and undue reliance should not be placed on
such statements.
The risks and uncertainties inherent in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation include, but are not limited to:
domestic and international business and market conditions; changes in the domestic or international regulatory and legislative
environment in the countries in which the Group operates or intends to operate; changes to domestic and international operational,
economic, political and social risks; changes to IFRS and the interpretations, applications and practices subject thereto as they
apply to past, present and future periods; and the effects of both current and future litigation.
The company undertakes no obligation to update publically or release any revisions to these forward-looking statements contained
in this presentation and does not assume responsibility for any loss or damage whatsoever and howsoever arising as a result of the
reliance of any party thereon, including, but not limited to, loss of earnings, profits, or consequential loss or damage.
Segmental Review
38
For more information please contact:
Derek Tod
Chief Executive Officer
Telephone: 011 323 0450
Email: [email protected]
Collin Bishop
Chief Operating Officer
Telephone: 011 323 0462
Email: [email protected]
Dries Ferreira
Chief Financial Officer
Telephone: 011 323 0456
Email: [email protected]
Segmental Review
www.dawnltd.co.za
39
Strategic update &
Grohe transaction
Financial & Segmental
Review
Group Prospects &
Conclusion
Appendices
40
Outlook for Building sector
* Additions & Alterations
Cum y/y % change in BC & BPP, incl A&A*: m2
(Note:
trend in sub-category Residential mirrors this graph)
Cum Y/Y Percentage Change: BPP and BC: Total Building (Inc A&A): 1993-2014: m2
(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 66(14))
35%
Buildings Completed (BC)
• Declined back to negative
territory in 2014
30%
25%
20%
15%
Square Metres
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Building Plans Passed (BPP)
• Declined again in 2014,
although still positive (just)
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH
Total BC
12 per. Mbv. Avg. (Total BC)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-45%
% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH
Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)
Total12 per.BPP
12 per. Mbv. Avg. (Total BPP)
H1 F2015:
• Building m2 to decline in double
digits
‒ Especially recorded
Additions & Alterations
Source: Stats SA; BMI-BRSCU Workings
Segmental
Review
Appendices
41
Outlook for Building sector
Cum
y/y%%Change
change
in BC by
sector:byJAN-Dec
2014:
m2 (JUNE)
Cum Y/Y
in Buildings
Completed
Sector: Jan
- Dec 2014:
M2 (JUNE)
(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 10(15))
130%
YTD CUM FORECAST
YTD CUM ACTUAL
YTD CUM ACTUAL
YTD CUM FORECAST
110%
90%
Square Metres
70%
H1 F2015 will continue to
see low volumes &
difficult markets
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
Residential building
Non-residential buildings
Additions and alterations
Total
Segmental
Review
Appendices
Jan
Feb
-2.07%
-8.20%
118.44% 0.65%
-9.57% -16.89%
12.88% -8.45%
March
-8.78%
3.45%
-25.48%
-10.60%
April
-11.95%
2.46%
-37.70%
-15.86%
May
-12.75%
-8.89%
-38.21%
-18.85%
June
-12.70%
-13.64%
-37.98%
-19.69%
July
-10.24%
-12.00%
-31.85%
-16.37%
Aug
-7.52%
-12.89%
-26.67%
-13.81%
Sept
-5.41%
-8.22%
-22.25%
-10.39%
Oct
-4.13%
-3.99%
-18.30%
-7.64%
Nov
-1.64%
-6.98%
-13.42%
-5.89%
Dec
0.28%
-2.74%
-10.95%
-3.20%
42
Infrastructure Outlook: Operating environment
Total DPI outstanding order
book (Rm)
4.5
Value
6-month avg
Total Incledon outstanding
order book (Rm)
6.5
Value
6-month avg
Once-off
Ductile
Pipe
contract
4.5
2.5
2.5
Segmental
Review
Appendices
0.5
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
0.5
43

Download Report