The Oil Production Story: Pre- and Post-Peak Nations
updated June 2014
Table created by Steve Andrews and Randy Udall; 2014 update by Steve Andrews
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (using 2013 data)
(includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, and natural gas liquids (NGLs); excludes biomass, CTL)
Increasing
Flat/Volatile
Decreasing
(underline=change>75,000 barrels/day)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Saudi Arabia
Russia
USA
China
Canada
Iran
U.A.E.
Kuwait
Iraq
Mexico
Change
barrels/day
Trend
years
Production
million b/day
-110,000
145,000
1,111,000
25,000
208,000
-193,000
247,000
-39,000
25,000
-36,000
1 (anomaly)
15 of 17
5 yrs
48 of 50
13 of 17
2 yrs
3 yrs
7 of 11
11.5
10.8
10.0
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.1
2.9
-20,000
-95,000
-35,000
29,000
-84,000
17,000
61,000
38,000
60,000
-521,000
11 of 15
volatile
9 yrs
Venezuela
Nigeria
Brazil
Qatar
Norway
Angola
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Colombia
Libya
Azerbaijan
India
Indonesia
UK
Egypt
Argentina
Malaysia
Ecuador
Australia
Nations 21-30
31
Thailand
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
4 decades
4 yrs
16 of 18
12 yrs
6 yrs
4 yrs
5 of 6 yrs
8 yrs
2 of 3 yrs
Vietnam
Eq. Guinea
Congo
Gabon
Turkmenistan
Sudan +So. Sudan
Denmark
Yemen
Brunei
24,000
12,000
0
-36,000
-83,000
-1,000
-9,000
-13,000
22,000
-73,000
9,000
31,000
-5,000
-8,000
-8,000
9,000
87,000
-26,000
-19,000
-24,000
6 yrs
6 yrs
18 yrs
15 of 17
13 of 14
12 yrs
11 of 12
6 of 9
10 yrs
8 of 12
16 of 17
7
4
4
14 yrs
10 yrs
3 yrs
9 yrs
10 yrs
5
Nations 31-40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
11.40
11.3
na
na
1974
6.06
na
1972
1979
2004
3.34
3.49
3.83
2.62
2.32
2.11
1.97
1.84
1.80
1.79
1.58
1.00
0.98
1970
3.75
na
na
na
2.52
2001
3.42
Trin.&Tobago
Italy
Peru
Chad
Romania
Tunisia
Uzbekistan
Syria
Rest of world
Nations 41-48 + Rest of World
-2,000
4,000
-3,000
-7,000
4,000
-5,000
-5,000
-115,000
-8,000
7 yrs
20 yrs
3 yrs
7 of 8 yrs
30 of 35 yrs
25 of 33 yrs
14
11 of 12
na
TOTAL
0.94
0.93
0.89
0.88
0.87
0.71
0.66
0.66
0.53
0.42
7.49 mbd
0.46
0.38
0.31
0.28
0.24
0.23
0.22
0.18
0.16
0.14
2.60 mbd
0.12
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.06
1.22
1.93 mbd
86.81
Comments
8.5 exports
7.5 exports
8.9 imports
6.6 imports
1.56 exports
1.56 exports
2.87 exports
2.63 exports
na
0.85 exports
Production + exports slipped, domestic consumption up
17-yr strong recovery hasn't ended yet, but exports flat
Largest year-over-year US gain ever yet still import 47%
Imports now = 61% of consumption, steadily growing.
Exports grew but majors slowing oil sands investments
Geopolitics has hammered exports; future unpredictable
Domestic consumption up 70% in 10 years
Two-year strong production increase ended with whimper
When will latest chaos, violence hit oil fields? How badly?
New law won't reverse decline quickly; shale will be slow
1.85 exports
n/a
rough balance
1.73 exports
1.60 exports
n/a
1.50 exports
1.19 exports
0.71 exports
Financial and political chaos threaten production, exports
Violence continues, expands; slow downward spiral
More gains from Brazilian pre-salt expensive will be tough
Production doubled in past decade, but LNG = not oil…
Slipped from 7th to 15th in 11 years
6 years of bumpy plateau, now back on increase?
1 million b/d gain since 2000, but now on 4-year plateau
Unsettling attack shows vulnerability of sector.
Colombia climbs into Top 20; big surge continues
Tribal violence up = exports down; don't expect calm soon
n/a
0.83 exports
2.83 imports
0.74 imports
0.65 imports
0.04 imports
0.02 exports
0.07 imports
0.23 exports
0.61 imports
Sustained 6-year upturn; could hit new peak this year
Rapid increase 5 years (+230%) ended in 2010
Imports 77% of consumption, and trend slowly increases
Former OPEC member used to export; now net importer
They exported $22 oil during 1990s, now import $110.
Egypt is gas prone. Days of oil exports are gone.
Despite talk of shale oil, long decline (28%) continues
Former exporter now importer for a second year.
Politics still volatile (ask Chevron)
Produces only 41% of consumption, for all offshore talk
Top 10 produce two-thirds of global oil.
na
na
2007?
1.99
n/a
1970
3.36
2001
na
na
1977
1999
1993
2001
2004
na
2000
0.96
18.0 mbd
Nations 11-20
21
Oman
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
na
1987
1970
Net Exporter or
Net Importer
million b/day
56.7 mbd
Top 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Peak Year Peak Rate
million b/day
Nations 11-20 produce 21% of global oil.
1.69
2.91
0.95
0.91
0.78
0.81
Nations 21-30 produce 9% of global oil.
na
2004
2005
na
1997
na
2007
2004
2002
1979
1978
na
1982
2005?
1976
1980
1999
2002
na
0.48
0.39
0.46
0.26
0.75 imports
0.03 exports
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.09 exports
n/a
0.02 exports
n/a
n/a
0.23
0.12
0.20
0.17
0.31
0.12
0.19
0.68
na
0.08 exports
1.19 imports
0.09 imports
n/a
0.1 imports
n/a
0.01 imports
n/a
n/a
0.42
0.36
0.37
Imports 62%; small production gains offset by demand
During 10 yrs production flat, consumption nearly double
Three-yr decline followed by this year's increase; next?
Four-year plateau or two-year downterm?
long-time producer stuck in low gear; no change soon
Modest trend upwards; production dwarfed by neighbors
combined figure for both Sudans….dove then rebounded
Long-time exporter could become importer this year
down 65% in decade since peak; politically problematic
down almost 40% from 2006 secondary peak
Nations 31-40 total produce 3%, less than Venezuela
down 37% in last 6 years
Italy's saving grace: demand down 1/3 over last decade
Peru production meets less than half of domestic demand
producing for a decade; down 46%; fell short of the hype
world's first oil wells drilled here and Baku; now imports
Arab Spring instigator continues long oil slide
down 50% over the last decade
Civil war nearly eliminates Syria as oil producer
"Everybody else" produces a little more than Colombia
Remaining nations produce less than Qatar
World: +0.56 vs. 2012 (includes crude oil, condensate, tight oil, oil sands and nat. gas liquids)
*Some of BP's previously reported production numbers for nations are changed without any notice or footnotes. For example, the 2012 total was reported as 86.15 mbd in 2013 report,
but reported as 86.25 mbd in the 2014 release (an increase of 100,000 mbd)