Russian#Units#Enter#Ukraine

Bipartisan)Assessment)of)the))
Ukraine)Military)Situation)
Gen.$(ret.)$Wesley$Clark$&$Dr.$Phillip$Karber$
for$House$Armed$Services$Commi1ee,$US$Congress$
XXIV$Economic$Forum,$KrynicaLZdroj,$Poland$
2L4$September$2014$
Organization*of*Brie.ing*
!Background+to+Clark/Karber+Assessment+
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.+
VII.+
VIII.
IX.
X.+
XI.+
XII.
+Maidan+“People’s+Revolt”+
+Russia’s+Crimean+Campaign+
+SeparaBst+Campaign+&+Proxy+War+
+Russian+State+Sponsored+Terrorism+
+Russian+Deployment+for+Invasion+
+Ukraine’s+Military+Deters+ALack+
+Western+CircumspecBon+
+Ukraine+Launches+“Plan+B”+
+PuBn’s+Strategic+OpBons+
+ImplicaBons+of+Malaysian+Flt.+17+
+Ukraine’s+Defense+Requirements+
+American+Strategic+OpBons!
Backgrounds*
General'(ret.)'Wesley'K.'Clark!
Dr.'Phillip'A.'Karber+
Businessman,+Educator,+Writer+and+Commentator!
General!Clark!serves!as!Chairman!and!CEO!of!Wesley!K.!Clark!&!Associates,!a!
strategic!consul7ng!ﬁrm;!CoKChairman!of!Growth!Energy;!senior!fellow!at!
UCLA's!Burkle!Center!for!Interna7onal!Rela7ons;!Advisor!at!the!Blackstone!
Group;!Director!of!Interna7onal!Crisis!Group;!Chairman!of!City!Year!Li4le!Rock/
North!Li4le!Rock;!Chairman!of!UGR!Inc.,!a!banking!and!strategic!advisory!ﬁrm;!
as!well!as!numerous!corporate!boards.!!
General!Clark!has!authored!three!books!and!serves!as!a!member!of!the!Clinton!
Global!Ini7a7ve's!Energy!&!Climate!Change!Advisory!Board,!and!ACORE's!
Advisory!Board.!
Clark!re7red!a!four!star!general!aZer!38!years!in!the!United!States!Army.!He!
graduated!ﬁrst!in!his!class!at!West!Point!and!completed!degrees!in!Philosophy,!
Poli7cs!and!Economics!at!Oxford!University!(B.A.!and!M.A.)!as!a!Rhodes!Scholar.!!
While!serving!in!Vietnam,!he!commanded!an!infantry!company!in!combat,!
where!he!was!severely!wounded!and!evacuated!home!on!a!stretcher.!He!later!
commanded!at!the!ba4alion,!brigade!and!division!level,!and!served!in!a!number!
of!signiﬁcant!staﬀ!posi7ons,!including!service!as!the!Director!Strategic!Plans!and!
Policy!(JK5).!In!his!last!assignment!as!Supreme!Allied!Commander!Europe!he!led!
NATO!forces!to!victory!in!Opera7on!Allied!Force,!saving!1.5!million!Albanians!
from!ethnic!cleansing.!!
His!awards!include!the!Presiden7al!Medal!of!Freedom,!Defense!Dis7nguished!
Service!Medal!(ﬁve!awards),!Silver!star,!Bronze!star,!purple!heart,!honorary!
knighthoods!from!the!Bri7sh!and!Dutch!governments,!and!numerous!other!
awards!from!other!governments,!including!award!of!Commander!of!the!Legion!
of!Honor!(France).!
!
President,+The+Potomac+FoundaBon+&+Professor,+Georgetown+University!
Phillip!Karber!graduated!from!Pepperdine!College!,!has!a!PhD!in!interna7onal!
law!from!Georgetown!University!and!holds!cer7ﬁcates!from!Wharton!Business!
School,!the!JFK!School!and!Harvard!Business!School.!A!former!US!Marine,!in!
1968!Karber!was!brought!to!Washington!by!Admiral!Arleigh!Burke!to!serve!as!
Na7onal!Security!Assistant!to!the!Ranking!Republican!Member!of!the!
Congressional!Joint!Commi/ee!on!Atomic!Energy!(JCAE)!
In!1974!Karber!was!named!Director!of!the!Presiden7al!mandated!Na5onal!
Security!Study!Memorandum!186!KK!the!Na7onal!Security!Council!interKagency!
study!of!U.SKSoviet!mul7purpose!forces.!In!1981!Secretary!of!Defense!Caspar!
Weinberger!recruited!Karber!to!serve!as!“strategy!advisor”!KK!repor7ng!directly!
to!the!Secretary!and!JCS!Chairman.!
As!a!senior!execu7ve!of!the!BDM!Corpora7on,!Karber!was!responsible!for!
interna7onal!business!in!28!countries!and!in!1990K91!organized,!recruited,!
trained!and!delivered!the!Free!Kuwait!Army!in!support!of!Desert!Storm.!!
He!served!as!an!external!advisor!to!Bri7sh!Prime!Minister!Thatcher,!the!
Secretary!General!of!NATO,!and!the!CEO!of!Ford!Motor.!With!a!technical!
background!in!interna7onal!transporta7on,!he!has!led!major!eﬀorts!in!air!traﬃc!
control,!avia7on!infrastructure!and!the!study!of!the!terrorist!threat!to!global!
avia7on.!Karber!served!as!Chairman!of!the!Board!of!JFK!Interna5onal!Air!
Terminal!KK!the!interna7onal!consor7um!selected!to!priva7ze,!rebuild!and!
operate!New!York’s!Kennedy!Airport!Interna7onal!Arrivals!facility.!
An!Adjunct!Professor!at!Georgetown!University!since!1978,!his!latest!academic!
wri7ng!has!appeared!in!the!Harvard!Journal!of!Law!&!Public!Policy,!Journal!of!
Diploma5c!History,!and!Proceedings!of!the!American!Society!of!Interna5onal!
Law.!His!most!recent!publica7on!is!“Net!Assessment!for!Sec!Def.”!
The+Potomac+FoundaBon+was!founded!in!1988!by!the!owners!of!the!BDM!Corpora7on!at!the!7me!of!its!sale!to!Ford!Motor!Company!in!order!to!con7nue!a!
tradi7on!of!public!service.!It!is!a!nonKproﬁt,!independent!and!openKsource!research!organiza7on!dedicated!to!improving!the!quality!of!public!dialogue!and!
na7onal!policy!formula7on.!It!is!ﬁnanced!by!an!endowment,!contribu7ons!and!founda7on!grants.!During!its!ﬁrst!quarter!century!The!Potomac!Founda7on!made!
major!eﬀorts!in!the!areas!of!PostKCold!War!Defense!Economics,!Na7onal!Industrial!Compe77veness!and!China’s!Military!Rise.!For!two!decades!it!assisted!the!
na7ons!of!Eastern!Europe!and!the!former!Soviet!Union!to!become!integrated!with!the!West!through!prepara7on!and!entry!into!NATO,!organized!over!one!
thousand!training!sessions!for!leaders!from!those!countries,!as!well!as!hosted!more!than!a!dozen!Congressional!visits!to!the!region.!The!Potomac!Founda7on!has!
close!7es!with!a!number!of!major!universi7es!and,!with!Georgetown!University,!sponsors!the!annual!EuropeanKAmerican!Security!workshop!in!Florence,!Italy.!!
Gen.!Clark!and!Dr.!Karber!donated!their!7me!to!this!eﬀort!and!The!Potomac!Founda7on!provided!travel!and!research!assistance.!
!
Background%to%ClarkCKarber%Report%
Gen."(ret.)"Wesley"Clark"&"Dr."Phillip"Karber"joint"“BiparGsan"Approach:”"
–  Old"friends"daGng"back"to"the"early"1980s;"
–  Joint"belief"that"the"West"would"NOT"have"won"the"Cold"War"with"
the"current"level"of"ParGsan"acrimony;"
cc "No"subsGtute"for"direct"contact:"50"meeGngs"with"Ukrainian"
security"leaders;"
cc "No"subsGtute"for"direct"observaGon:"visits"to"Forward"Brigades"
and"Fronts"Lines;"
cc "Address"the"Vacuum:"
c "Call"it"like"we"see"it:"Failure"in"ImplemenGng"promised"Nonc
Lethal"Aid;"
c "IdenGfy"opGons:"Other"than"“all"or"nothing”"extremes;"
C  Ask"the"poliGcally"incorrect"&"military"diﬃcult"quesGon:"Can$
we$let$Ukraine$be$Destroyed?$
cc""Work"insidecout:"1st"AdministraGon;"2nd"Congress;""3rd"Public."
Travel"to"Units"="1,600"miles"
BelocRussian/Russian"Northern"Front"
Mar/Apr$
Jun/Jul$
Terrain"Assessment"&""
Visits"to"Front"Line"Troops"
East
ern"
Command"Visits"&"Brieﬁngs"
Crimean
"Souther
Fron
t"
n"Front"
Front"Line"&"Command"Visits"
Russia#and#Ukraine#–#a#Strained#Marriage?
!
!
Historical+Reality+versus+PoliZcal+Rhetoric+
• 
1918O1921(Soviet(Union(destroys(
Ukrainian(selfOdefense(&(Na;onal(
Iden;ty;(
• 
1930s(Forced(Collec;viza;on(
produces(mass(starva;on(Ukraine;(
• 
1945(Stalin(insists(on(Ukraine(being(
treated(as(a(separate(State(in(UN;(
• 
1950s(Khrushchev(cedes(Crimea(to(
Ukraine;(
• 
1990s(Collapse(of(Soviet(Union(&(
Russia(aVempted(control(through(
“CIS”(structure;(
• 
2000s(Russia(manipulates(access(and(
price(of(energy(for(poli;cal(leverage.(
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
2013+Russia+pressures+Ukraine+on:+
–  Naval+lease+at+Sebastopol;+
–  Control+of+Defense+Industry;+
–  AnZ1Economic+integraZon+with+EU;+
–  Supports+corrupt+lackeys;+
–  False+claims+of+Russians+abused.+
PuZn+surprised+at+collapse+of+Yanukovych+
2014+Invasion+AnnexaZon+of+Crimea+
Desire+for+land1link+to+Transneister+++
New+Claim+on+l5+Oblasts+includes:+
–  60%+of+remaining+territory;+
–  72%+of+remaining+populaZon;+
–  81%+of+industry;+
–  Capital+(Kiev)+of+country.+
2014#Presidential#Election!
Opportunity(for(“NaEonal(Unity?”(
Districts!for!Poroshenko!
Districts!for!Dobkin!
Districts!where!elec)ons!
!were!not!held!due!to!separa)st!insurgency !
!!
Ukrainian(TimeSLine(to(Independence(
(
Challenge#in#Creating#Democratic#Government#
Jan!!!!!!Feb!!!!!!Mar!!!!!!Apr!!!!!May!!!!!!Jun!!!!!!!Jul!!!!!!!Aug!!!!!Sep!!!!!!Oct!!!!!!Nov!!!!!!Dec!
Reform(
ConsEtuEon(
•((DemocraEc(Rules(
•((Local(RepresentaEon(
•((AnEScorrupEon(
•((Govt.(Reform(
•((ConsEtuEonal(Eﬀort(((((((
Elect(New(
Parliament(
New(Government(
TransiEon(
Interim(Government(
PresidenEal(ElecEon(
•((Decisive(Leader(
•((New(Security(Team(
Replace( •((Survival(
•((AnESterror(Campaign(
Despot( •((Interim(Leadership(
•((Purge(Unreliables(
Maidan( •((Compromise(Govt.(
•((“Emergency(Decree”?(
Protest( •((Invasion(of(Crimea(
•((Old(Parliament(
•((ProSWest(Revolt(
•((Budget(&(Energy(Crisis(
•((Russian(support(of(Dictatorship(
•((EscalaEng(War(
(
(
(
A(Challenge(to(any(Government(….(
(
(
4%+
Rump+Ukraine+
Given+to+West+as+
“Compromise”+
Pro1Russian+
Government+
Member+of+
FederaZon+
8%+
24%+
Russian+IncorporaZon+
&+OccupaZon+
55%+
Ukrainian+PopulaZon+
%+Ethnic+Russian+
Stated#Russian#Objectives##
Strategy#of#State#Sponsored#Terrorism(
Employing+“Hybrid+Warfare”+&+“Controlled+Chaos”+
STAGES:+
• (Destabilizing(a(Country(&(Inspiring(domes;c(conﬂict;(
• (Ruining(economy,(destroying(infrastructure(&(causing(state(collapse;(
• (Russia’s(steps(in(as(a(invited(“savior”(replacing(local(poli;cal(leadership(
with(their(own(opera;ves(and(lackey.((
METHODS:+
•  Crea;on(of(puppet(“state”(structures;(
•  Flooding(the(region(with(illegal(weapons;(
•  Using(foreign(paid(mercenaries(to(destroy(regional(infrastructure(and(
terrorize(local(popula;on;(
•  Weakening(local(economy(and(blocking(state(func;ons((e.g.(law(
enforcement,(jus;ce,(social(welfare);(
•  Forcing(of(refugee(crisis;(
•  Exploi;ng(social(media(&(informa;on(warfare;(
•  Introduc;on(of(the(Russian(“peace(keeping(forces”((
MulZ1ethnic+socieZes+like+Ukraine+–+in+the+process+of+trying+to+create+a+progressive+
&+DemocraZc+government+amid+serious+economic+reform+11+are+parZcularly+
vulnerable.+
Phases#of#Russian#State#Sponsored#Terror#Campaign#
60(
50(
PHASE&1:&Agiprop!
PHASE&2:&Seizures#!
PHASE&3:&Insurgency(
Protest(
Seizure(
Violence(
40(
30(
20(
10(
0(
March(1(9(March(9(9(March(16(March(23(March(30( April(6(9( April(13(9( April(20(9( April(27(9( May(4(9( May(11(9( May(18(9(
8(
15(
9(22(
9(29(
9(April(5(
12(
19(
26(
May(3(
10(
17(
24(
Military'Posture'
end'JAN'2014'
61#NIB#
7#Tk#
138#MRB#
28#MRB#
98#Abn#DIV#
25#MRB#
76#Abn#DIV#
6#Tk#
22#MRB#
9#MRB#
2#SF#
216#SF#
2#DIV#
45#SF#
31#Aslt#
21#MRB#
103#Air#Asl#
79#MRB#
#5#MRB#
4#Tk#DIV#
27#MRB#
23#MRB#
#3#SF#
19#MRB#
336#NIB#
15#MRB#
218#Rec#
7#MRB#
6#MRB#
120#MRB#
11#MRB#
13#MRB#
106#Abn#DIV#
50#MRB#
10#MRB#
BRIGADE'TYPES'
38#Air#Asl#
16#SF#
Infantry'
'
Marine'
'
Mechanized'
'
Mountain'
'
Armored'
'
Air'Assault'
'
Airborne'
'
Spetsnaz'
56#Aslt#
39#MRB#
1#Arm#
51#Mech#
95#Air#Mob# 169#Mech#
92#Mech#
30#Mech#
24#Mech#
72#Mech#
20#MRB#
80#Abn#
25#Abn#
128#Mech#
34#MRB#
93#Mech#
17#Arm#
28#Mech#
MANEUVER'BRIGADES'
READY'FOR'COMBAT'
'
79#Air#Mob#
52#Mech#
TN#Grp#
Belarus'
18#MRB#
205#MRB#
No''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Yes'
Russian'
#22#SF#
10#SF#
810#NIB#
36#NIB#
100#Rec#
7#Abn#DIV#
33#Rec#
19#MRB#
77#NIB#
8#MRB#
17#MRB#
136#MRB#
Ukraine'
693#MRB#
13#MRB#
Military'Posture'
end'FEB'2014'
61#NIB#
7#Tk#
138#MRB#
28#MRB#
98#Abn#DIV#
25#MRB#
76#Abn#DIV#
6#Tk#
22#MRB#
9#MRB#
2#SF#
216#SF#
2#DIV#
45#SF#
21#MRB#
103#Air#Asl#
79#MRB#
4#Tk#DIV#
27#MRB#
#5#MRB#
23#MRB#
19#MRB#
336#NIB#
15#MRB#
218#Rec#
7#MRB#
6#MRB#
120#MRB#
13#MRB#
11#MRB#
50#MRB#
106#Abn#
10#MRB#
BRIGADE'TYPES'
38#Air#Asl#
16#SF#
106#Abn#
1#Arm#
51#Mech#
39#MRB#
169#Mech#
106#Abn#
92#Mech#
30#Mech#
72#Mech#
24#Mech#
20#MRB#
80#Abn#
56#Aslt#
25#Abn#
93#Mech#
128#Mech#
17#Arm#
No''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Yes'
Russian'
Belarus'
Ukraine'
34#MRB#
#22#SF#
28#Mech#
Maneuver'Brigades'
Ready'for'Combat'
'
Infantry'
'
Marine'
'
Mechanized'
'
Mountain'
'
Armored'
'
Air'Assault'
'
Airborne'
'
Spetsnaz'
52#Mech#
79#Air#Mob#
95#Air#Mob#
TN#Grp#
18#MRB#
205#MRB#
31#Aslt#
#3#SF#
100#Rec#
7#Abn#DIV#
810#NIB#
10#SF#
33#Rec#
19#MRB#
77#NIB#
8#MRB#
17#MRB#
136#MRB#
693#MRB#
13#MRB#
Military'Posture'
end'MAR'2014'
61#NIB#
7#Tk#
138#MRB#
28#MRB#
98#Abn#DIV#
25#MRB#
76#Abn#DIV#
22#MRB#
9#MRB#
2#SF#
216#SF#
2#DIV#
45#SF#
21#MRB#
79#MRB#
4#Tk#DIV#
103#Air#Asl#
336#NIB#
#5#MRB#
23#MRB#
19#MRB#
7#MRB#
6#MRB#
15#MRB#
218#Rec#
13#MRB#
120#MRB#
11#MRB#
50#MRB#
10#MRB#
106#Abn#
38#Air#Asl#
106#Abn#
6#Tk#
1#Arm#
30#Mech#
51#Mech#
39#MRB# 27#MRB#
BRIGADE'TYPES'
16#SF#
106#Abn#
Infantry'
'
Marine'
'
Mechanized'
'
Mountain'
'
Armored'
'
Air'Assault'
'
Airborne'
'
Spetsnaz'
169#Mech#
72#Mech#
92#Mech#
20#MRB#
93#Mech#
24#Mech#
56#Aslt#
25#Abn#
128#Mech#
Maneuver'Brigades'
Ready'for'Combat'
'
No''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Yes'
Russian'
17#Arm#
80#Abn#
#MiliOa#
52#Mech#
TN#Grp#
28#Mech#
#3#SF#
79#Air#Mob#
34#MRB#
18#MRB#
205#MRB#
31#Aslt#
BATTALION'
GROUPINGS'
100#Rec#
Belarus'
Ukraine'
#22#SF#
95#Air#Mob#
7#Abn#DIV#
810#NIB#
10#SF#
33#Rec#
19#MRB#
77#NIB#
8#MRB#
17#MRB#
136#MRB#
Par6al'RUS'Units'+'link'to'Parent'
693#MRB#
13#MRB#
Mechanized'
'
Armored'
'
Spetsnaz'
Military'Posture'
end'MAY'2014'
61#NIB#
7#Tk#
138#MRB#
28#MRB#
98#Abn#DIV#
25#MRB#
76#Abn#DIV#
22#MRB#
9#MRB#
2#SF#
216#SF#
2#DIV#
45#SF#
21#MRB#
79#MRB#
4#Tk#DIV#
103#Air#Asl#
336#NIB#
#5#MRB#
23#MRB#
19#MRB#
7#MRB#
6#MRB#
15#MRB#
218#Rec#
13#MRB#
120#MRB#
11#MRB#
50#MRB#
10#MRB#
106#Abn#
38#Air#Asl#
106#Abn#
6#Tk#
1#Arm#
39#MRB#
27#MRB#
30#Mech#
BRIGADE'TYPES'
16#SF#
106#Abn#
Infantry'
'
Marine'
'
Mechanized'
'
Mountain'
'
Armored'
'
Air'Assault'
'
Airborne'
'
Spetsnaz'
169#Mech#
92#Mech#
93#Mech#
128#Mech#
20#MRB#
56#Aslt#
51#Mech#
Maneuver'Brigades'
Ready'for'Combat'
'
79#Air#Mob#
80#Abn#
#MiliOa#
TN#Grp#
No''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Yes'
Russian'
28#Mech#
25#Abn#
#22#SF#
24#Mech# 72#Mech#
17#Arm#
34#MRB#
18#MRB#
205#MRB#
#3#SF#
31#Aslt#
BATTALION'
GROUPINGS'
100#Rec#
Belarus'
Ukraine'
95#Air#Mob#
7#Abn#DIV#
810#NIB#
10#SF#
33#Rec#
19#MRB#
77#NIB#
8#MRB#
17#MRB#
136#MRB#
People’s'Republics'
693#MRB#
13#MRB#
Mechanized'
'
Armored'
'
Spetsnaz'
DonBass#Sympathies#&#Russian#Proxy#War#
Mili-as&
2,000,000&
Russian&Spetsnaz&
Russian&“Volunteers”&
Supporters&
Fellow&Travelers&
Terrorized&Popula-on&
6,000,000&
ProaUkraine&
A&small&minority&is&producing&the&Violence&
Ukrainian(Time@Line(to(Independence(
(
Russian$Campaign$against$Ukraine$
Jan""""""Feb""""""Mar""""""Apr"""""May""""""Jun"""""""Jul"""""""Aug"""""Sep""""""Oct""""""Nov""""""Dec"
Presiden=al(
Transi=on(
Honest(Democra=c(
Replace( Elec=on(of(New(Leader(
Reform( Despot(
Govt.(
Elect(New(
Parliament(
Russian(Units(Enter(Ukraine(
Proxy(War(+Hvy(Equip(
Spetsnaz(A[acks(
Invasion(Threat(
Russian(“Volunteers”((
Invasion(of(Crimea(
Covert(support(of(Yanukovich(
Reform(
Cons=tu=on(
Ukrainian'TimeELine'to'Independence'
'
Russian#Military#Preparation##
for#Invasion#against#Ukraine#
Jan######Feb######Mar######Apr#####May######Jun#######Jul#######Aug#####Sep######Oct######Nov######Dec#
Presiden6al'
Transi6on'
Reform'
Cons6tu6on'
Proxy'War'
Spetsnaz'
Invasion'Threat'
“Volunteers”''
Invasion'of'Crimea'
Russian'Military'Invasion'Strength'(#'BNs)'
Honest'Democra6c'
Replace' Elec6on'of'New'Leader'
Reform' Despot'
Govt.'
Elect'New'
Parliament'
“Déjà&vue&all&over&again”&
NATO&
&Central&
Front&
SIMILARITIES:!
• !740km!Wide!Front!
• !200km!Strategic!Depth!
• !Force!RaIo!=!2.4!to!1!
KEY&DIFFERENCES:&
• !RaIo!of!Force!to!Space!
!N!NATO!1985!=!66!Brigades!
!N!Ukraine!2014!=!10!Brigades!
• !Vulnerability!of!Flanks!
• !Lack!of!Allies!
Ukraine&
&Eastern&
Front&
Ukrainian&TimegLine&to&Independence&
&
Ukraine’s$Mobilization$&$
Forward$Defense$Deployment$
Jan!!!!!!Feb!!!!!!Mar!!!!!!Apr!!!!!May!!!!!!Jun!!!!!!!Jul!!!!!!!Aug!!!!!Sep!!!!!!Oct!!!!!!Nov!!!!!!Dec!
Presiden3al&
Transi3on&
Proxy&War&
Spetsnaz&
Invasion?&
“Volunteers”&&
Invasion&of&Crimea&
An3gTerrorist&
Opera3on&
Forward&
Defense&
Reform&
Cons3tu3on&
Ukrainian&Strength&(#&BNs)&
Honest&Democra3c&
Replace& Elec3on&of&New&Leader&
Reform& Despot&
Govt.&
Elect&New&
Parliament&
PHASE&4:&June&Proxy&War&
Kiev$
Infrastructure&Campaign:&25&May&to&30&June&
&
Kharkiv$
Svatove&
Poltava$
Rubizhne&
Starobilsk&
Lozova&
Slovyansk&
Kramatorsk&
Pervomaisk&Luhansk&
Stakhanov&
Stakhanov&
Kostyantynivka&
Horlivka& Horlivka&
Krasnoarmiisk&
Antratsyt&
Donetsk&
Uspenka&
Makiivka&
Zaporizhia&
Dnipropetrovs’k$
Kryviyy$Rih$
&
Mykolayiv$
Odessa$
Kherson$
Mariupol(
Seizures&
Rail/Bridge&
&&A[acks&
Airport&Atks&
Terrorist&
&&Sanctuary&
VII.$Western$Circumspection!
“Now%is%not%the%time%for%bluster.%The%situation%in%Ukraine,%like%crises%in%many%
parts%of%the%world,%does%not%have%easy%answers%nor$a$military$solution.”%
President"Obama,"Brussels,"26"March"2014""
"
“…%the%United%States%and%its%allies%will%not%hesitate%to%use%21st$century$tools%
to%hold%Russia%accountable%for%19th$century$behavior.”%
SecState"Kerry,"Senate"Foreign"Rela2ons"Cmt,"8"April"2014""
"
• "Convinced"that"there"was"no"a1rac2ve"military"op2on,"the"leaders"of"the"
West"have"focused"on"poli2cal"dialogue"and"economic"instruments;"
• "These"eﬀorts"are"presumed"to"be"Compelling,"Coherent"&"Coordinated"but"
the"reality"is"that"up"to"now,"that"is"not"the"image"they"have"conveyed;"
• "These"eﬀorts"have"assumed"that"the"target"shared"their"interest"in"an"“oﬀB
ramp;”"
• "These"eﬀorts"assume"that"the"target"of"persuasion,"having"elected"on"using"
a"variety"of"coercive"instruments"–"subversion,"invasion,"aggressive"military"
posturing,"proxy"war,"and"support"of"both"terrorism"and"a"regime"of"terror"
in"occupied"territory"–"is"likely"to"be"persuaded"by"more"paciﬁc"means;""
• "If"a"leader"like"Valdimir"Pu2n"believes"that"there"is"a"military"solu2on"and"is"
commi1ed"to"ﬁnding"one,"what"sort"of"a"asymmetrical"response"will"get"his"
a1en2on"and"convince"him"of"his"selfBinterest"in"ending"the"crisis?"
Sanction)Regime)Assessment)
Target#Selec)on#
#1#Cohesive?#
Is'the'selec%on'of'
targets'a'united'
whole?''
#2#Coherent?#
Is'the'selec%on'of'
sanc%on'targets'logical'
and'consistent?''
3#
c
#3#Coordinated?#
Is'the'selec%on'of'
sanc%on'targets'
eﬃcient'and'
harmonious'
among'countries?''
Are#sanc)ons#a#legi)mate#alterna)ve#or#complement#to#military#instruments?##
Sanction)Score)Card)
33#Countries#
Individuals'
Companies'
Total#
85'
2'
87#
85'
2'
87#
73'
4'
77#
76'
0'
76#
42#
30#
72#
56'
0'
56#
24'
0'
24#
16'
0'
16#
9'
5'
14#
• 
US'is'5th'behind'the'EU,'
Norway,'Canada'and'
Switzerland.'
• 
US'had'few'sanc%ons'than'
Britain'un%l'the'16'July'US'
expansion'of'the'UST'
Sectoral'Sanc%ons'
iden%ﬁca%on'list'
• 
US'is'1st'in'sanc%oning'
individual'companies,'
including'Gazprom,'Rosnet'
and'Kalashnikov'
• 
Simple'comparison'does'
suﬃciently'reﬂect'economic'
or'poli%cal'impact'of'
sanc%ons'
Coordinated?)
Disparity#Among#Countries#
• 
US'sanc%ons'focus'on'
Russian'poli%cians'and'
businesses,'omiqng'most'
highPranking'Ukrainian'
oﬃcials'in'the'Yanokovich'
government'
• 
Inconsistent'among'poli%cal,'
military'and'business'
persons'
• 
EU/Norway'sanc%ons'are'
most'balanced'among'those'
responsible'for'the'situa%on'
in'Russia'and'Ukraine,'but'
omit'Russian'companies'
• 
The'degree'of'sanc%on'
coordina%on'seems'
negligible,'both'in'terms'of'
sanc%on'focus'and'target'
selec%on'
Companies'
Business'Persons'
Military'Persons'
Poli%cal'Persons'
0'
10'
20'
30'
40'
50'
60'
Cohesive?)
Inconsistent#and#Contradictory#
Sanc)oned#by#31#countries#–#but#not#United#States#
• 
Vitaly#Zakharchenko#T#Former#Minister#of#Internal#Aﬀairs#of#
Ukraine##
• 
The'US'selec%on'of'sanc%on'targets'
does'not'fulﬁll'the'stated'objec%ves'
of'the'US'sanc%on'regime'
• 
Mykola#Azarov#T#Former#Prime#Minister#of#Ukraine#
• 
• 
Andrii#Kliuiev#T#Former#Head#of#Administra)on#of#President#of#
US'sanc%ons'do'not'target'the'
Ukrainian'oﬃcials'directly'
responsible'for'violently'
suppressing'Maidan'and'extensive'
ﬁnancial'corrup%on'
• 
Various'individuals'are'sanc%oned'
for'oﬀenses'commiged'also'by'their'
peers,'who'are'not'sanc%oned'
“Sectoral'sanc%ons”'are'a'
misnomer,'as'they'target'individual'
companies'in'speciﬁc'industries,'not'
the'industries'as'a'whole'
Ukraine#
Sanc)oned#by#30#countries#–#but#not#United#States#
• 
Serhiy'Arbuzov'P' 'Former'Deputy'Prime'Minister'of'Ukraine'
• 
Oleksandr'Klymenko'P'Former'Minister'of'Revenues'of'Ukraine'
• 
Eduard'Stavytsky'P'Former'Energy'Minister'of'Ukraine'
• 
Yuriy'Ivanyushchenko'P'Member'of'the'Party'of'Regions'
• 
Viktor'Yanukovych'Jr'P''Son'of'Former'President'of'Ukraine'Victor'Yanukovich'
• 
Vitaly'Zakharchenko'P'Former'Minister'of'Internal'Aﬀairs'of'Ukraine'
• 
Mykola'Azarov'P'Former'Prime'Minister'of'Ukraine'
• 
Raisa'Bohatyriova'P'Former'Minister'of'Health'of'Ukraine'
• 
Serhii'Kliuiev'P'Brother'of'Andrii'Kliuiev;'Businessman'
• 
Olena'Lukash'P'Former'Minister'of'Jus%ce'of'Ukraine'
• 
Viktor'Pshonka'P'Former'Prosecutor'General'of'Ukraine'
• 
• 
Messaging'value'of'sanc%ons'is'
diluted'by'the'US'failing'to'sanc%on'
those'sanc%oned'by'the'EU'and'
others'
Not#a#single#person#–#even#Yanokovich#himself#–#is#sanc)oned#by#all#countries!#
Coherent?)
Diﬀerent#Focal#Points#
• 
US'sanc%ons'focused'primarily'on'Russia,'omiqng'appropriate'targets'in'Ukraine'
• 
European'sanc%ons'are'rela%vely'balanced'between'Ukrainian,'Russian'and'Crimean'
targets'
• 
Bri%sh'sanc%ons'are'an'ineﬀectual'middle'ground'between'US'and'EU'sanc%ons'
• 
Austria'has'only'sanc%oned'former'Ukrainian'oﬃcials,'omiqng'both'Crimean'and'
Russian'persons'and'en%%es'
90'
80'
Ukraine'
70'
60'
50'
40'
30'
20'
10'
0'
Crimea'
Russia'
There$is$no$shortage$of$Western$effort$to$communicate$with$
Russia’s$leader$throughout$the$Ukraine$crisis$…$
#
Valdimir#Pu)n’s#Oﬃcial#Calls/Mee)ngs#with#World#Leaders#to#discuss#Ukraine#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
however#the#Medium#does#NOT#seem#to#convey#the#Message;#
in#fact,#the#Medium#of#dialogue)may#be#sending#the#wrong#Message"
"
Russian$Threats$&$Western$Inaction$
#
Jan""""""Feb""""""Mar""""""Apr"""""May""""""Jun"""""""Jul"""""""Aug"""""Sep""""""Oct""""""Nov""""""Dec"
Elect#New#
Parliament#
Presiden)al#
Transi)on#
Honest#Democra)c#
Replace# Elec)on#of#New#Leader#
Reform# Despot#
Govt.#
Reform#
Cons)tu)on#
Mobiliza)on#
Proxy#War#
Terrorism#
Seizures#
Protests#
Invasion#of#Crimea#
Poroshenko#begs#for#“Lend#Lease”#with#no#Western#response#
endless)debate)over)future)sanc2ons)
2nd##Sanc)ons#
NonZLethal#Aid#
1st#Sanc)ons#
Covert#support#of#Yanukovich#
No)public)recogni2on)or)reac2on)to))
Pu2n)Mobiliza2on)Decree)
?#
Ukraine’s(“Plan(B”$
•  A:er$four$months$of$listening$to$US$&$EU$advice$to$“negoGate,”$“wait$for$
sancGons$to$take$eﬀect,”$“wait$for$the$next$round$of$sancGons”$(which$never$
come),$“don’t$be$provocaGve,”$“go$slow,”$“minimize$combat,”$etc.$etc.,$they$
ﬁnally$had$an$epiphany$—$Plan$A$which$was$predicated$on$listening$to$and$
waiGng$for$outsiders$to$solve$their$problem$was$a$loser$—$it$was$Gme$for$
decisive$acGon$and$they$would$have$to$do$it$themselves.$
•  Ukraine$could$no$longer$incrementally$engage$SeparaGsts$a$police$acGon$–$it$
needed$to$decisively$take$the$proVRussian$insurgents$on$as$a$military$campaign;$
•  “Plan$B”$Sequence$of$Campaign:$
• 
• 
• 
• 
Air$OperaGon$to$use$mobile$ﬁre$power$to$reduce$SeparaGst$strong$points$and$
keep$them$from$maneuvering;$
GROUND$PHASE$I$–$Break$the$outer$forGﬁed$crust$of$the$SeparaGst$defenses;$
GROUND$PHASE$II$–$Cut$oﬀ$their$access$to$the$border$and$Russian$resupply;$
GROUND$PHASE$III$–$Divide$and$Conquer$using$Air$Oﬀensive$for$ﬁre$support.$
•  A$good$plan$–$but$in$danger$of$the$“fallacy$of$the$last$move”$–$Russians$could$foil$
with$air$defenses,$cross$border$ﬁre$&$launch$CounterVOﬀensive.*$
*$P.A.$Karber,$“Plan$B,”$Potomac$working$note,$(2014.07.05)$email.$$
“Plan(B”(Concept(of(Campaign(
PHASE$I$$$Seal$Border$
PHASE$II$$Breakthrough$
PHASE$III$Divide$&$Conquer$
“Plan(B”(progress(in(July(Campaign(
SITREP:''24'June'2014'
SITREP:''1'August'2014'
Putin'Mobilization'Order#
#
UKAZ%[EXECUTIVE%ORDER]%
OF%THE%PRESIDENT%OF%THE%RUSSIAN%FEDERATION%
Appealing#for#[male]#ci6zens#of#the#Russian#Federa6on##
in#the#[military]#reserves,#for#military#training#in#2014#
#
%
%In%conjunc4on%with%federa4on%laws%from%31%May%1996%No.%61QFZ%
“On%Defense”%and%from%28%March%1998%No.%53QFZ%“On%Military%
Responsibility%and%Military%Service,”%it%is%decreed:%
%1.%An%appeal%in%2014%that%[male]%ci4zens%of%the%Russian%
Federa4on%in%the%reserves%report%for%military%du4es%for%up%to%two%months%
in%the%Armed%Forces%of%the%Russian%Federa4on,%in%the%troops%of%the%
Ministry%of%Internal%Aﬀairs%of%the%Russian%Federa4on,%in%the%oﬃces%of%state%
protec4on,%and%in%the%FSB.%
#2.#Conﬁden6al.#[literally!“for!oﬃcial!use”]#
#3.#Conﬁden6al.#[literally!“for!oﬃcial!use”]#
%4.%The%terms%of%military%spending%[i.e.$line'item$military$spending$
power]%will%be%decided%by%the%execu4ve%authori4es%of%the%Russian%
Federa4on,%with%the%excep4on%of%check%fees%[the$base$payments$made$to$
ci6zens$in$the$reserves],%which%will%be%determined%by%the%Ministry%of%
Defense%of%the%Russian%Federa4on.%
%5.%The%Government%of%the%Russian%Federa4on%and%the%execu4ve%
organs%of%the%Russian%Federa4on%will%provide%for%the%execu4on%of%ac4vi4es%
related%to%the%calling%of%Russian%ci4zens%in%the%reserves%to%undergo%military%
training%and%carry%out%these%du4es.%
%6.%This%execu4ve%order%will%enter%force%on%the%day%of%its%oﬃcial%
publica4on.%
%%
President%of%the%Russian%Federa4on,%V.%Pu4n%
%%
Moscow,%Kremlin%
27%June%2014%
[Ukaz]%No.%471%
%
Ukrainian#TimeWLine#to#Independence#
#
Russian'State'Sponsored'Terrorist''
Campaign'against'Ukraine'
Jan%%%%%%Feb%%%%%%Mar%%%%%%Apr%%%%%May%%%%%%Jun%%%%%%%Jul%%%%%%%Aug%%%%%Sep%%%%%%Oct%%%%%%Nov%%%%%%Dec%
Proxy#War#
Spetsnaz#
Invasion#Threat#
“Volunteers”##
Invasion#of#Crimea#
Ukraine#
Forward#
Defense#
Presiden6al#
Transi6on#
Pu6n#Mobiliza6on#Decree#
Russian#Units#Enter#Ukraine#
Reform#
Cons6tu6on#
?#
Russian#Military#Invasion#Strength#(##BNs)#
Honest#Democra6c#
Replace# Elec6on#of#New#Leader#
Reform# Despot#
Govt.#
Elect#New#
Parliament#
Russian'Cross'Border'AZacks'against'Ukraine'in'July'
Kolesnykivka,
(JUL$24)$
Separa?st'Controlled'Area'
Malaysian'Flt'17'
ShootVdown'
(JUL$17)''
Sverdlovs’k$
(JUL$10)$
V
Russian$UA
Marynivka,
$(JUL21,$25V26)$
Izvarino,,
(JUL$9,$11,$16)$
Chervonopar7zansk,
(JUL$15)$
Kozhevnya,
(JUL$26)$
Chervonyi,
(JUL$26)$
$path$
Zelenopillya,(JUL$11)$
Dolzhanskyi,
(JUL$9,$26)$
(JUL$11)$
Kuzminka$
Training$Area$
Novocherkassk$
Training$Area$
Neklinovskiy$
Training$Area$
Novazovsk,
(JUL$4V5,$12,$22,$26)$
RUSSIAN'ACTIVITY'
Ar?llery/MRLS'strikes'
Russian'ﬁring'posi?ons'
Russian'Training'Bases'
Main'Inﬁltra?on'Routes''
UAV'Helio'OverVﬂights'
1 - 10 August !
UKE$Brigade$
Weakened$BDE$
128'
NG'
93'
25'
80'
28'
95'
30'
52'
24'
NG'
51'
72'
Russian$SIT$REP$map$with$TPF$plot$of$Ukrainian$posiGons.$
Russian(Attacks(
in(August$
128'
UKE$Brigade$
NG'
Weakened$BDE$
25'
80'
93'
Overrun$BDE$
Strategic'Direc?on*'&'
Southern'Front'
'“Center'of'Gravity”'
Volnovakha'is$THE$key$for$
the$enGre$southern$ﬂank:$
VV$to$the$West$is$the$Dnepr:$
$$$$ $V$Zaporizha$
$V$Dnepropetrovsk$
VV$to$the$South$is:$
$V$Mariupol$
$V$Melitopol$
$V$Crimea$
95'
52'
30'
24'
72'
51'
79'
NG'
*$$$For$a$Russian$discussion$of$the$Strategic$objecGves$of$the$new$oﬀensive,$see:$“Харьков,$Днепропетровск,$Мариуполь$—$какими$будут$цели$армии$Новороссии?$[Served$to$
advance.$Kharkov,$Dnepropetrovsk,$Mariupol$V$what$would$be$the$purpose$of$the$army$of$New$Russia?],”$Rusvesna,$(2014.08.28),$at$<$hâp://rusvesna.su/recent_opinions/1409228025$>.$$
10 - 20 August !
UKE$Brigade$
Weakened$BDE$
128'
Overrun$BDE$
NG'
93'
25'
80'
28'
95'
52'
24'
30'
NG'
72'
51'
Russian$SIT$REP$map$with$TPF$plot$of$Ukrainian$posiGons.$
Overrun$51st$Brigade$holding$the$gap$at$Ilovajsk$
SIT$REP$as$reported$
on$the$Ground$
NaGonal$Guard$overrun$in$Novoazovsk$27$Aug.$
SIT$REP$as$reported$
on$the$Ground$
10 - 20 August !
UKE$Brigade$
Weakened$BDE$
128'
Overrun$BDE$
NG'
93'
25'
80'
28'
95'
24'
52'
30'
NG'
51'
72'
NG'
17'
Combined)Arms)Armored)Group)from)Russia)
invading$Southern$Ukraine$toward$Mariupol$(28.08.2014)$
Posted'by'Chechen'soldier:'“Кадыровцы'выложили'в'сеть'видео'вторжения'российской'армии'в'Украину,'[Kadyrovtsy'posted'a'video'on'the'invasion'of'the''
Russian'Army'in'Ukraine]”'YouTube,'(14.08.28),''at'<'hcps://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xUQQ3H5oNtI'>.'
Russian)Air)Attack)on)Ukrainian)Coast)Guard)Vessel)
oﬀ$Mariupol$31$August$2014$
Russian$
AircraW$
launch'
point'
ﬂight'path'
missile'
Explosion$on$UKE$
Coast$Guard$Vessel$
Video'posted'by:'Serge'Reshetnyak,'“Mariupol2'mp4,”'YouTube,'(2014.08.31)'at'<'hcps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l90KUJ_0H5s&feature=youtu.be'>'
Stages'of'Military'Campaign(Exploiting(
Collapse(of(DonBass(Army(
STAGE&1&((&Offensive,Contribution,of,Separatist,Area,
Destabilization,as,Precursor,for,Invasion,
Kiev%
Kiev%
Kharkiv%
Kharkiv%
Poltava%
Poltava%
Luhansk%
Luhansk%
Dnipropetrovs’k%
Kryviyy%Rih%
Dnipropetrovs’k%
Kryviyy%Rih%
Donetsk%
Zaporizhia%
Mykolayiv%
Odessa%
Kiev%
Donetsk%
Zaporizhia%
Mykolayiv%
Mariupol%
Kherson%
STAGE&2&((&Drive,to,Dnepr,from,Separatist,Area,
Mariupol%
Kherson%
Odessa%
STAGE&3&((&Exploitation,to,Transnistria,
Kiev%
Kharkiv%
Kharkiv%
Poltava%
Poltava%
Luhansk%
Luhansk%
Dnipropetrovs’k%
Kryviyy%Rih%
Dnipropetrovs’k%
Kryviyy%Rih%
Donetsk%
Zaporizhia%
Mykolayiv%
Odessa%
Donetsk%
Zaporizhia%
Mykolayiv%
Kherson%
Mariupol%
Odessa%
Kherson%
Mariupol%
Thrusts&
Seizures&
Terrorist&
&&Sanctuary&
Collapse(of(“Plan(B”(
• $Failure$to$consummate$success$in$July:$
VV$Fear$of$collateral$damage$=$lack$of$aggressive$arGllery$ﬁre$support$in$Urban$combat;$
VV$Inadequate$logisGcs$infrastructure$or$personnel$replacement/rotaGon;$
VV$Best$units$chewed$up$to$1/3$eﬀecGve$strength;$
VV$Too$“light”$units$against$too$“heavy”$armored$proxy$forces;$
VV$Lack$of$modern$equipment$(Com,$ECM,$Night$Vision,$Body$Armor,$etc.);$
VV$Loss$of$air$space$control$due$to$Russian$Air$Defenses.$
• $Loss$of$control$of$Border$with$too$few/too$“light”$forces.$
• $Russian$crossVborder$“backstab:”$$
VV$Replacement$of$SeparaGst$losses$with$Proxy$manpower$and$Russian$weapons;$
VV$CrossVborder$(unreciprocated)$arGllery/MRLS$strikes;$
VV$Opening$of$Southern$Front$against$very$weak$defenses.$
• $Future$Dangers:$
VV$2/3$of$current$UKE$Army$in$DonBass$overrun/threatened$with$being$surrounded;$
VV$No$eﬀecGve$Southern$reserve$(79th$&$1st$Armored$covering$Crimea);$
VV$Overstretched$Northern$Front$(3$Bde$covering$XXX$km$of$Front$with$no$reserves;$
VV$Loss$of$troop$and$public$conﬁdence$in$Military$Leadership.$
Collapse'of'DonBass'Army'could'unravel'Ukraine'Defense'east'of'Dnepr'
Poten3al&Axes&of&Advance&for&Russian&Invasion&&
Northern&
Axis&
Opera3onal&
Maneuver&
Group?&
Eastern&
Axis&
!!
Transneister&
Threat?&
Southern&
Axis&
Amphibious&
Invasion?&
Ukrainian#Air#Force#&#Air#Defense##
Atk#Helo#
Grd#Atk#
Fighter#
Intercept#
Strike#
Bomber#
Base#
Air#Defense#
#
#
Air#Order#of#BaTle#
Russian#Air#Force#
vs#Ukraine#
Putin’s$$aim$to$“Protect”$Russians$could$Destabilize$EurAAsia$
for$Decades$$AA$if$he$is$not$stopped$in$Ukraine$…$Where?$
Others$View$US$Response$as$$
Indicative$of$Strategic$Will$
“Warns$US$Allies$in$Asia$
not$to$count$on$strong$
American$presence$in$
the$region,$likening$the$
US$response$to$the$
Ukraine$crisis$to$‘erec-le$
dysfunc-on’.”$
Major$General$Zhu$Chenguh$
Bloomberg,$24$June$2014$

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