Alberta Short-Term Employment Forecast 2014-2016

Alberta’s
short-term
employment
forecast
2014 - 2016
Overview
Objectives
The Short-Term Employment Forecast (STEF) provides
a three-year overview of occupations expected to be
in-demand during that period. The STEF results,
along with other labour market information, can help
inform decisions to be made by many stakeholders:
Government of Alberta (GOA) to make effective labour
market policy and program design; industry to develop
strategic workforce plan; educational institutions and
training providers to design/develop programs that are
more responsive to labour market needs; youth/students
to make informed education and career decisions; and
newcomers to become aware of the opportunities in
Alberta.
• To develop evidence-based methodology to produce
forecasts that will support short-term planning and
development of strategies by the GOA and other
stakeholders.
• To identify occupations that will be in high or low
demand in the labour market in the near future, and
allow decision-makers take action to avert or ease
potential imbalances.
• To ensure consistency in data utilization and
interpretation within the GOA.
This forecast helps bridge the gap between what is
happening now and in the long-term as indicated by the
government’s 10-year forecast, Alberta’s Occupational
Demand and Supply Outlook 2013-2023. The long-term
forecast examines which occupations are expected to grow
and by how much the supply of labour will expand. The
current 10-year outlook forecasts that Alberta will create
407,000 new jobs and that 311,000 people will join the
workforce by 2023. In contrast, STEF only examines
occupations expected to be in-demand in the next three
years. As such, this forecast does not show potential labour
shortages; it identifies which occupations are expected to
be in demand. This is the fourth consecutive year that the
GOA has released this short-term forecast.
The forecast reflects the GOA’s commitment to supply
labour market information to industry, professional
organizations, institutions and the general public. As
part of the overall labour force strategy Building and
Educating Tomorrow’s Workforce, the GOA is committed
to improving available labour forecasts to help inform
the development of workforce strategies that will help
mitigate any occupational shortages.
The Alberta STEF 2014-2016 examines 260 occupations
and ranks them into the following demand categories:
high; moderately high; medium; and low. The ranking of
an occupation is determined based on thresholds that are
calculated through a scientific methodology that examines
quantitative and qualitative pieces of information. The
more thresholds an occupation meets, the more indemand it is expected to be.
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
1
Methodology
The STEF methodology is based on robust labour market
research and intelligence.
The labour market intelligence incorporates multiple
quantitative and qualitative evidence such as:
• Economic indicators including occupational demand
forecasts
• Administrative data
• Industry forecasts and information
The STEF methodology analyzes seven variables per
occupation: six quantitative and one qualitative as shown below:
1
2
Future
Employment
Growth Rate
3
The data for all 260 occupations identified by the 4-digit
National Occupational Classification (NOC 2006) codes, were
collected, calculated, analyzed, and summarized.
Thresholds were determined for each variable in order to
incorporate these occupations in a table which would contain
logical and comparable values and would be easy to read and
interpret. Each occupation was assessed against the thresholds.
The 2014-2016 STEF was further improved through the
enhanced methodology and analysis, use of latest and broader
industry data and feedback, use of the latest available labour
force data.
4
Historical
Employment
Growth Rate
Unemployment
Rate
Number of
Labour Market
Opinions1 Issued
5
6
Ratio of EI2 Regular
Beneficiaries to
the Employed
Participation
Rate
Quantitative Variables
STEF METHODOLOGY
7
Qualitative Variable
Industry
Environmental
Scan
Vacancy Rates
Wage & Salary
Surveys
Wanted Analytics
Number of Job
Postings
AINP3
Nominations
Issued
__________________________________________________
Effective June 20, 2014 the Labour Market Opinion (LMO) was transformed into a new Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) process that is
more comprehensive and rigorous.
2.
Employment Insurance
3
Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program
1
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
2
Results
The STEF yielded the following results on the 260 occupations
analyzed and categorized by the number of thresholds met:
• Two occupations met all thresholds for the seven variables,
meaning there is a significant likelihood these occupations
will be in high demand in the next three years
• 29 occupations met the thresholds for six variables,
meaning there is a significant likelihood these occupations
will be in high demand in the next three years
• 68 occupations met the thresholds for five variables,
meaning there is a likelihood these occupations will be in
moderately high demand
• 67 occupations met the thresholds for four variables,
meaning there is a likelihood these occupations will be in
medium demand
• 94 occupations met the threshold/s for three variables or
less, meaning it is likely these occupations are going to be in
low demand in the next three years
The attached Appendix shows the 2014-2016 STEF results.
Occupations in demand should have met at least five out of
seven variable thresholds. Please refer to the Glossary on page
12 for definitions of terms.
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
3
Appendix
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
High Demand Occupations
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
0013
Senior Managers - Financial, Communications Carriers and Other Business Services
A013
Number of
Employed
in 2013
4,600
0611
A131
Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers
0632
A222
Accommodation Service Managers
11,400
6,500
0651
A361
Other Services Managers
2,000
1211
B411
Supervisors, General Office and Administrative Support Clerks
5,300
1221
B311
Administrative Officers
34,500
2131
C031
Civil Engineers
12,400
2132
C032
Mechanical Engineers
7,200
2133
C033
Electrical and Electronics Engineers
6,600
2231
C131
Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians
5,900
2232
C132
Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians
2,700
2234
C134
Construction Estimators
2,900
2241
C141
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians
4,000
2243
C143
Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics
4,500
2261
C161
Non-Destructive Testers and Inspectors
4,400
2281
C181
Computer Network Technicians
6,200
3111
D011
Specialist Physicians
4,100
3235
D235
Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment
4,500
6221
G121
Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade
6241
G411
Chefs
18,300
4,800
6271
G911
Hairstylists and Barbers
7215
H015
Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades
11,700
3,700
7231
H311
Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors
4,600
7246
H216
Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers
2,300
7252
H112
Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers
11,000
7265
H326
Welders and Related Machine Operators
25,900
7311
H411
Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (except Textile)
10,800
7312
H412
Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics
14,200
7321
H421
Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers
16,600
7371
H621
Crane Operators
3,200
7441
H531
Residential and Commercial Installers and Servicers
9,400
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
4
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Moderately High Demand Occupations
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
0016
A016
Senior Managers - Goods Production, Utilities, Transportation and Construction
1,600
0111
A111
Financial Managers
7,500
0112
A112
Human Resources Managers
4,400
0211
A121
Engineering Managers
3,500
0631
A221
Restaurant and Food Service Managers
0711
A371
Construction Managers
9,800
0721
A141
Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers
5,600
0811
A381
Primary Production Managers (except Agriculture)
7,000
0911
A391
Manufacturing Managers
5,600
1111
B011
Financial Auditors and Accountants
28,000
1215
B415
Supervisors, Recording, Distributing and Scheduling Occupations
11,800
1223
B313
Personnel and Recruitment Officers
1225
B315
Purchasing Agents and Officers
1241
B211
Secretaries (except Legal and Medical)
1471
B571
Shippers and Receivers
1474
B574
Purchasing and Inventory Clerks
4,000
2113
C013
Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists
5,800
2121
C021
Biologists and Related Scientists
1,800
2134
C034
Chemical Engineers
2,200
2172
C072
Database Analysts and Data Administrators
3,300
2174
C074
Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers
2212
C112
Geological and Mineral Technologists and Technicians
7,000
2242
C142
Electronic Service Technicians (Household and Business Equipment)
6,400
2253
C153
Drafting Technologists and Technicians
4,600
2263
C163
Inspectors in Public and Environmental Health and Occupational Health and Safety
9,300
2264
C164
Construction Inspectors
2,500
2271
C171
Air Pilots, Flight Engineers and Flying Instructors
3,100
2282
C182
User Support Technicians
9,300
2283
C183
Systems Testing Technicians
3112
D012
General Practitioners and Family Physicians
5,900
3131
D031
Pharmacists, Dieticians and Nutritionists
4,800
3152
D112
Registered Nurses
3233
D233
Licensed Practical Nurses
7,000
3234
D234
Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations
3,300
3413
D312
Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates
15,700
4,000
10,400
9,300
18,200
13,200
X
32,000
22,400
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
5
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Moderately High Demand Occupations (continued)
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
4121
E111
University Professors
4212
E212
Community and Social Service Workers
13,600
6211
G011
Retail Trade Supervisors
24,600
6212
G012
Food Service Supervisors
7,900
6216
G016
Other Service Supervisors
4,800
6251
G941
Butchers, Meat Cutters and Fishmongers - Retail and Wholesale
5,700
6462
G622
Correctional Service Officers
3,200
6683
G983
Other Elemental Service Occupations
5,700
7213
H013
Contractors and Supervisors, Pipefitting Trades
2,900
7214
H014
Contractors and Supervisors, Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades
2,900
7216
H016
Contractors and Supervisors, Mechanic Trades
10,700
7217
H017
Contractors and Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews
10,300
7219
H019
Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers
12,000
7241
H211
Electricians (except Industrial and Power System)
17,700
7242
H212
Industrial Electricians
6,100
7251
H111
Plumbers
5,900
7261
H321
Sheet Metal Workers
2,500
7264
H324
Ironworkers
2,100
7272
H122
Cabinetmakers
1,500
7282
H132
Concrete Finishers
3,100
7291
H141
Roofers and Shinglers
2,300
7292
H142
Glaziers
7295
H145
Floor Covering Installers
3,000
7313
H413
Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics
2,900
7322
H422
Motor Vehicle Body Repairers
7411
H711
Truck Drivers
45,600
7421
H611
Heavy Equipment Operators (except Crane)
15,300
7452
H812
Material Handlers
25,500
7622
H832
Railway and Motor Transport Labourers
8222
I122
Supervisors, Oil and Gas Drilling and Service
8412
I142
Oil and Gas Well Drilling Workers and Services Operators
8612
I212
Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers
9617
J317
Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing
6,400
X
4,600
X
18,900
8,100
11,600
5,100
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
6
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Medium Demand Occupations
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
0213
A122
Computer and Information Systems Managers
0311
A321
Managers in Health Care
0621
A211
Retail Trade Managers
30,200
0712
A372
Residential Home Builders and Renovators
13,400
1122
B022
Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management
15,100
1212
B412
Supervisors, Finance and Insurance Clerks
6,300
1233
B113
Insurance Adjusters and Claims Examiners
3,200
1411
B511
General Office Clerks
4,400
1472
B572
Storekeepers and Parts Clerks
4,000
2145
C045
Petroleum Engineers
2151
C051
Architects
2,600
2154
C054
Land Surveyors
1,800
2173
C073
Software Engineers and Designers
4,700
2211
C111
Chemical Technologists and Technicians
3,200
2233
C133
Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and Technicians
2262
C162
Engineering Inspectors and Regulatory Officers
3132
D032
Dietitians and Nutritionists
2,500
3142
D042
Physiotherapists
3,400
3143
D043
Occupational Therapists
2,400
3215
D215
Medical Radiation Technologists
1,900
3222
D222
Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists
2,700
4141
E131
Secondary School Teachers
6,100
4142
E132
Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers
4152
E022
Social Workers
7,300
4153
E023
Family, Marriage and Other Related Counsellors
4,900
4154
E024
Ministers of Religion
4,000
4161
E031
Natural and Applied Science Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers
5,600
4163
E033
Business Development Officers and Marketing Researchers and Consultants
3,600
4214
E217
Early Childhood Educators and Assistants
5121
F021
Authors and Writers
2,900
5124
F024
Professional Occupations in Public Relations and Communications
4,900
5133
F033
Musicians and Singers
4,500
5211
F111
Library and Archive Technicians and Assistants
1,900
5212
F112
Technical Occupations Related to Museums and Art Galleries
6242
G412
Cooks
6262
G612
Firefighters
5,200
3,900
12,900
X
X
17,000
17,400
X
22,400
4,300
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
7
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Medium Demand Occupations (continued)
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
6443
G723
Casino Occupations
6451
G511
Maîtres d'hôtel and Hosts/Hostesses
6453
G513
Food and Beverage Servers
6471
G811
Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations
9,000
6474
G814
Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers
9,000
6482
G922
Estheticians, Electrologists and Related Occupations
5,500
6483
G923
Pet Groomers and Animal Care Workers
6651
G631
Security Guards and Related Occupations
7212
H012
Contractors and Supervisors, Electrical Trades and Telecommunications Occupations
3,800
7222
H022
Supervisors, Motor Transport and Other Ground Transit Operators
5,500
7244
H214
Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers
1,500
7253
H113
Gas Fitters
1,500
7271
H121
Carpenters
18,600
7284
H134
Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers, and Lathers
3,800
7293
H143
Insulators
3,600
7351
H221
Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operators
3,400
7422
H612
Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators
3,700
7445
H535
Other Repairers and Servicers
3,000
7611
H821
Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers
8231
I131
Underground Production and Development Miners
8232
I132
Oil and Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers and Related Workers
21,900
8251
I011
Farmers and Farm Managers
40,200
8255
I015
Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Contractors and Managers
8431
I021
General Farm Workers
8432
I022
Nursery and Greenhouse Workers
6,100
9212
J012
Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Processing and Utilities
2,500
9232
J112
Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Process Operators
6,500
9461
J171
Process Control and Machine Operators, Food and Beverage Processing
3,500
9486
J216
Mechanical Assemblers and Inspectors
1,700
9511
J191
Machining Tool Operators
1,700
9612
J312
Labourers in Metal Fabrication
2,300
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
3,000
7,600
24,600
3,500
10,300
21,300
2,000
2,400
11,100
8
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Low Demand Occupations
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
0122
A302
Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers
3,800
0123
A303
Other Business Services Managers
1,900
0212
A123
Architecture and Science Managers
X
0312
A322
Administrators in Post-Secondary Education and Vocational Training
X
0313
A323
School Principals and Administrators of Elementary and Secondary Education
3,400
0314
A324
Managers in Social, Community and Correctional Services
3,500
0713
A373
Transportation Managers
X
0912
A392
Utilities Managers
X
1112
B012
Financial and Investment Analysts
3,700
1113
B013
Securities Agents, Investment Dealers and Brokers
2,100
1114
B014
Other Financial Officers
1121
B021
Specialists in Human Resources
8,200
1222
B312
Executive Assistants
6,100
1224
B314
Property Administrators
4,500
1231
B111
Bookkeepers
25,700
1232
B112
Loan Officers
6,900
1413
B513
Records Management and Filing Clerks
4,600
1414
B514
Receptionists and Switchboard Operators
1422
B522
Data Entry Clerks
1431
B531
Accounting and Related Clerks
1432
B532
Payroll Clerks
6,300
1433
B533
Customer Service Representatives – Financial Services
8,600
1434
B534
Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Clerks
2,800
1435
B535
Collectors
1441
B541
Administrative Clerks
26,600
1453
B553
Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks
14,000
1461
B561
Mail, Postal and Related Clerks
3,600
1462
B562
Letter Carriers
3,200
1463
B563
Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors
2,700
1473
B573
Production Clerks
2,500
1475
B575
Dispatchers and Radio Operators
4,100
1476
B576
Transportation Route and Crew Schedulers
2148
C048
Other Professional Engineers, n.e.c.
2171
C071
Information Systems Analysts and Consultants
3113
D013
Dentists
11,800
25,200
7,200
21,700
X
X
1,700
15,600
X
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
9
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Low Demand Occupations (continued)
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
3114
D014
Veterinarians
1,700
3151
D111
Head Nurses and Supervisors
2,600
3212
D212
Medical Laboratory Technicians
4,200
3411
D311
Dental Assistants
3,900
3414
D313
Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services
8,100
4111
E011
Judges
4112
E012
Lawyers and Quebec Notaries
11,400
4122
E112
Post-Secondary Teaching and Research Assistants
10,100
4131
E121
College and Other Vocational Instructors
9,300
4143
E133
Educational Counsellors
1,500
4151
E021
Psychologists
2,200
4155
E025
Probation and Parole Officers and Related Occupations
4164
E034
Social Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers
3,100
4166
E035
Education Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers
2,000
4167
E036
Recreation, Sports and Fitness Program Supervisors and Consultants
2,900
4211
E211
Paralegal and Related Occupations
6,100
4216
E215
Other Instructors
2,100
5221
F121
Photographers
2,200
5241
F141
Graphic Designers and Illustrators
5,000
5242
F142
Interior Designers
2,000
5254
F154
Program Leaders and Instructors in Recreation, Sport and Fitness
6215
G015
Cleaning Supervisors
4,000
6231
G131
Insurance Agents and Brokers
8,100
6232
G132
Real Estate Agents and Salespersons
6233
G133
Retail and Wholesale Buyers
3,300
6252
G942
Bakers
3,400
6261
G611
Police Officers (except Commissioned)
6,000
6272
G912
Funeral Directors and Embalmers
6411
G111
Sales Representatives, Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical)
27,400
6421
G211
Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks
62,500
6431
G711
Travel Counsellors
2,800
6435
G715
Hotel Front Desk Clerks
3,500
6452
G512
Bartenders
4,300
6472
G812
Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants
13,300
6611
G311
Cashiers
35,800
X
X
14,200
10,800
X
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
10
Appendix (continued)
Short-Term Employment Forecast Results 2014-2016
Low Demand Occupations (continued)
Number of
Employed
in 2013
NOC 2006* NOC-S**
Occupation Title
6622
G972
Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers
6623
G973
Other Elemental Sales Occupations
6641
G961
Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations
38,400
6661
G931
Light Duty Cleaners
20,700
6662
G932
Specialized Cleaners
6,200
6663
G933
Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents
6671
G731
Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport
6672
G732
Other Attendants in Accommodation and Travel
X
7221
H021
Supervisors, Railway Transport Operations
X
7232
H312
Tool and Die Makers
X
7294
H144
Painters and Decorators
7,100
7342
H512
Tailors, Dressmakers, Furriers and Milliners
2,100
7352
H222
Power Systems and Power Station Operators
7412
H712
Bus Drivers and Subway Operators and Other Transit Operators
7413
H713
Taxi and Limousine Drivers and Chauffeurs
5,300
7414
H714
Delivery and Courier Service Drivers
7,100
7612
H822
Other Trades Helpers and Labourers
2,900
7621
H831
Public Works and Maintenance Labourers
2,200
8221
I121
Supervisors, Mining and Quarrying
8615
I215
Oil and Gas Drilling, Servicing and Related Labourers
3,600
9226
J026
Supervisors, Other Mechanical and Metal Products Manufacturing
2,100
9462
J172
Industrial Butchers and Meat Cutters, Poultry Preparers and Related Workers
3,500
9492
J222
Furniture and Fixture Assemblers and Inspectors
1,900
9619
J319
Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities
23,300
2,900
22,800
4,300
X
10,100
X
X
X - data suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
11
Glossary
*NOC 2006
Refers to the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The NOC is the nationally accepted reference on occupations
in Canada. The NOC provides a standardized framework for organizing the world of work in a coherent system. It is used
to collect and organize occupational statistics and to provide labour market information. For more information please visit:
http://www30.hrsdc.gc.ca/NOC/English/NOC/2006/Welcome.aspx
**NOC-S
Refers to the National Occupational Classification for Statistics. Statistics Canada’s occupational classification for 2006 is called
the National Occupational Classification for Statistics 2006 (NOC-S 2006) to distinguish it from the National Occupational
Classification (NOC) put out by the Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC). (The two classifications differ
only in the aggregation structure of the classification). Both provide a complete listing of all the categories under which
Canadian jobs are classified and their descriptions. For more information please visit: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/concepts/
occupation-profession-eng.htm
Note: Statistics Canada and ESDC are working together to create one National Occupational Classification that combines NOC and
NOC-S. This classification will be introduced during 2015-2016 period.
Number of Employed
Refers to the total count of the actual number of Albertans employed in 2013.
Thresholds
Refers to cut-off values established for each of the seven variables used in the analysis against which each occupation was
compared. The cut-off values were based on data trends demonstrated by each variable. An occupation may exhibit a value
that is either equal to, greater than, or less than the cut-off value.
For more information on this forecast tool or to request a presentation of the material, contact [email protected].
Alberta’s short-term employment forecast, 2014-2016
12
work.alberta.ca/labour/short-term-employment-forecast.html
ISBN 978-1-4601-1841-2
ISSN 2368-1039
© 2014 Government of Alberta. Printed in Canada for free distribution.
Published: July 2014.

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