ssi nnan eää istä olli- htaja, PCC To 12.6. samanaikaisesti Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskuksen konferenssi: 11–12 June 2014 Wanha Satama, Helsinki, Finland 11.–12.6.2014 Wanha Satama, SUSTAINABLE FUTURES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Helsinki WORKING GROUPS Teemana: Sustainable futures in changing climate Updated schedule 10 June 2014 WEDNESDAY 11 JUNE 13:00–15:00 Room E103 E104 E108 E110 E105 E109 E122 G Hall F Hall WG 1 WG 2 WG 10 WG 6 WG3 WG 9 WG 5 WG 7–8 WG 12 13:00 13:20 13:40 14:00 14:20 14:40 –15:00 15.30–16.30 Room E103 E104 E108 E110 E105 E109 G Hall F Hall WG 1 WG 2 WG 10 WG 6 WG3 WG 9 WG 7–8 WG 12 15:30 15:50 16:10 –16:30 THURSDAY 12 JUNE 13:00–15:00 Room E103 E104 E110 E105 E109 G Hall WG 1 WG 2 WG 12 WG4 WG 11 WG 7–8 13:00 13:20 13:40 14:00 14:20 14:40 –15:00 1 WG 1: FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM GLOBAL TRENDS TO LOCAL LANDSCAPES Chairs: Salla Rantala, University of Eastern Finland/University of Helsinki and Markku Kanninen, University of Helsinki Wednesday 11th June Room: E103 13:00–15:00 Introduction to the workshop: Forests and climate change: from global trends to local landscapes. Dr. Maria Brockhaus, Senior Scientist, CIFOR, and Prof. Markku Kanninen, VITRI/University of Helsinki Hujala Teppo, Rintamäki Heidi, Ervola Asta, Rikkonen Pasi & Uusivuori, Jussi: New and Enhanced Policy Measures for the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Agriculture and Forestry. Larjavaara Markku & Kanninen, Markku: Value of Carbon Stocks in Land Use Scenarios. Johnson Bart R., Nielsen-Pincus Max, Evers Cody, Hulse David W., Ager Alan A., Ribe Robert, & Bolte, John P.: Anticipating Surprise: Exploring Climate Adaptation in Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Rantala Salla, Hajjar Reem & Skutsch Margaret: Multilevel Governance for Legitimate and Effective REDD+ in Mexico. 15:30–16:30 Hyle Maija: Responsive Governance in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Participatory Land Use Planning in Angai Village Forest Reserve, Southeast Tanzania. Thuon Try & Jespersen Kristjan: Expectations Meeting the Reality on the Ground - Two Cases of REDD+ in Cambodia. Thursday 12th June 13:00–15:00 Panel Discussion: Summing up on the Workshop. Discussion chaired by Prof. Markku Kanninen, all speakers participate as panelists. Conclusions by Dr. Maria Brockhaus, CIFOR. WG 2: INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS Chairs: Arho Toikka, University of Helsinki and Laura Kainiemi, Aalto University, Finland Wednesday 11th June Room: E104 13:00–15:00 Systems, Policies and Transitions Prandecki Konrad: Sustainable Energy in Rural Areas. Sokka L., Havukainen J., Sinkko T., Väisänen S. & Niskanen A.: A Framework for Overall Sustainability Assessment of Local Small-scale Energy Production – Demonstration of an Approach. Dufva Mikko, Wessberg Nina, Kohl Johanna & Kivisaari Sirkku: Foresight for Accelerating System Transition towards Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Housing. Kivimaa Paula & Kern Florian: Creative Destruction or Mere Niche Creation in Policy Mixes for Low Energy Transitions? Empirical Insights from Finland and the UK. 2 Lyytimäki Jari: Towards a Bright Future? The Systems Intelligent Perspective on the Management of Light Pollution. 15:30–16:30 Institutions and Transitions for Transport and Mobility Humalisto Niko: The European Union and Assembling Biofuel Development – Governing Emissions Instead of Practices. Tuominen Anu & Auvinen Heidi: Building a Vision and a Roadmap for a National Transport Research Programme – Smart, Low-carbon Transport System 2030. Ahlgren Erik O., Börjesson Martin & Grahn Maria: Global Transport Biofuel Futures in Energy-economy modeling – a review. Thursday 12th June 13:00–15:00 Institutional Transition Issues in Developing Countries Akgün Orkide, Luukkanen Jyrki, Korkeakoski Mika & Kaivo-oja Jari: Rough Roads to Sustainability – Energy Scenarios for Fast Growing Mekong Countries. Brown Noel: Proposed Electricity Generation Plan for Jamaica. Moula Munjur E., Törrönen Maritta, Maula Johanna, Paatero Jukka & Järvinen Mika: Human Mobility in the Context Sustainable Energy Services in Brazil. WG 3: NORTH-SOUTH RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS – FOR WHOM AND FOR WHAT? Chairs: Eva Kagiri, UniPID, University of Jyväskylä, Kajsa Ekroos, UniPID, University of Helsinki & Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, University of Helsinki Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E105 Ketola Tarja: Climate Change Immigrants or Refugees – Adapting to or Denying Climate Change? Rissanen Kati: Climate Refugees as Mobile Technology Users in the Future. Scenario-Based Insights on the Challenges and Possibilities. Van Leemput Maya: Grass-roots Images of Futures about the Global South. Ahonen Päivi: Connections of Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Education Policies and Global Eduction for Sustainable Development. 15:30–16:30 Lehto Marise: On Becoming a Disciple of the Disciplines: How Development of Learning Organisation Capabilities Supports Organisational Sustainability. Costa Orlando: Higher Education Institution and its Role on New Multidisciplinary Concepts to Mitigate the Climate Change. 3 WG 4: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORPORATE ACTIONS Chair: Marileena Koskela, University of Turku Thursday 12th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E105 Tuusjärvi M., Kihlman S., Lehtilä A., Mäenpää I., Vuori S., Koljonen T. & Lauri L.S.: Visions for the Mining Industry in the Future Low-carbon Society in Finland. Koskela Marileena & Aarras Nina: Climate Change in Corporate Social Responsibility Reports. Dooley Ken: The Business Case for Embedded Environmental Sustainability: Embedding Long-term Environmental Strategies that Enhance Economic Performance. WG 5: ARCTIC FUTURES 2033 – OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS FOR SUSTAINABILITY Chair: Sirkka Heinonen, University of Turku Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E122 Sweeney John A. & Yeoman Guy: Uncharted Waters: Alternative Futures of the Arctic. Similä J., Juutinen A., Tuusjärvi M., Vuori S., Tolvanen A., Tuulentie S., Eilu P. & Naskali, A.: Governing Adaptive Change towards Sustainable Economy on the Arctic. Xiao Yi, Chu Jianxun & Sun Liguang: Imagining the Future of the Arctic: How to Stimulate the Greenhouse Effect of Methane under the Sea Ice of the Arctic. WG 6: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES IN RURAL FUTURES Chairs: Vilja Varho & Pasi Rikkonen, MTT Agrifood Research Finland Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E110 Hooli Lauri: Resilience of the Poorest: Coping Strategies and Indigenous Knowledge to Live with the Floods in Northern Namibia. Partio Hanna: Factors Affecting Women’s Land Ownership in Namibia. Reid Dwight, Wilson Earl & Baker Steve: Initial Designs of a Photovoltaic PEM Electrolysis System for the Production of Hydrogen for Domestic Cooking. Varho Vilja, Rikkonen Pasi, Koistinen Laura & Rasi Saija: Renewable Energy Futures – A Delphi Study of the Opportunities and Obstacles in Distributed Renewable Energy Growth up to 2025. Rikkonen Pasi, Rintamäki Heidi, Huan-Niemi Ellen, Niskanen Olli & Tapio, Petri: Combining expert future views and farm level modeling in the evaluation of three mitigation measures – improving the base of decisions for the future. 4 15:30–16:30 Rintamäki Heidi, Rikkonen Pasi & Tapio Petri: Varying recipes for mitigation in agriculture. Savikko Riitta, Mäkinen Hanna, Rimhanen Karoliina & Himanen Sari: Ways to climate smart agriculture? – Views of Finnish farmers, educators and advisers. WG 7 & 8: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN THE SOUTH: POLICIES AND POLITICS IN MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION Chairs: Visa Tuominen, University of Turku & Sari Jusi, University of Turku Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Room: Hall G Lebel Louis, Va Dany, Thuon Try &Voladet Saykham: The governance of adaptation projects in Lao PDR and Cambodia: legitimacy, interests and accountability. Kallayanamitra Chalisa, Potapohn Manoj & Lebel Louis: Aquaculture insurance: Innovative risk transfer under integrated risk management system for sustainability. Jusi Sari: Responding to Climate Change: Developing Water Resources Governance in Lao PDR. Keskinen Marko, Kummu Matti, Paradis Someth, Salmivaara Aura & Sokhem Pech: Using scenarios for information integration and science-policy facilitation: case from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia. Huang Ping-Lun, Lin Hai-Chen, Li Albert C.T., Lo Liang-Huey, Wu Yueh, Lai Yeun-Jeng & Yi-Ju Chen: Adaptation Strategic Assessment Framework: An ex-ante assessment framework for better climate change adaptation policy planning. 15:30–16:30 Karhunmaa Kamilla & Tuominen Visa: Small-scale carbon projects and sustainable development: identifying storylines for measuring development impacts. Sohn Minchul & Pilli-Sihvola Karoliina: The use of Early Warning Systems for improved food security: Case studies in Malawi and Zambia. 5 WG 9: URBAN ADAPTATION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Chairs: Johanna Mustelin Griffith University, Australia & Sirkku Juhola, University of Helsinki, Finland Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E109 Boyd Emily, Nykvist Björn, Borgström Sara & Stacewicz Izabela A.: Anticipatory governance for social ecological resilience. Kosunen Hanna: Assessing climatic impacts through the lifecycle of an urban environment. Linna Paula, Virtanen Maarit, Adedoyin Lasisi K. S. & Babawale Aduroshakin: Towards Developing Green Housing Solutions: Case integrating renewable energy solutions to housing in Lagos, Nigeria. Rantanen Annuska & Joutsiniemi Anssi: Strategic planning and epistemology of change: Probing the fitness of urban and planning systems with resilient spatial strategies. 15:30–16:30 Johnson Bart R.: Designing Enduring Cities for an Era of Rapidly Changing Climate. Sweeney John A., Yee Aubrey, Asuncion Leo & Morison Nathalie: Islands of Change: Science, Policy, & Foresight Linkages in Hawaii’s Climate Change Priority Guidelines. Varho Vilja: Transport climate policy choices in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area 2025 – views of transport officials and politicians. WG 10: URBAN SUSTAINABILITY Chairs: Jarmo Vehmas, University of Turku & Burkhard Auffermann, University of Turku Wednesday 11th June Room: E108 13:00–15:00 Terämä Emma: Population and consumption futures: Compound effects in the global urban transition. Kuittinen Matti: Low carbon solutions for humanitarian construction. Bradbury M.A.: The tempered edge: Waterfront development in an age of climate change. Tikkanen Jukka & Virkkula Outi: Community initiative network – a catalyst of transition towards low carbon society in Finland. 15:30–16:30 Tapiola Titta: Resilience of the Finnish food system in a changing climate – scenarios at 2050. Bussey Marcus: Toilet cultures/futures: sustainability and climate futures. 6 WG 11: REASONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Chair: Jouni Räisänen, University of Helsinki Thursday 12th June 13:00–15:00 Room: E109 Ylhäisi Jussi S., Räisänen Jouni & Perrels Adriaan: Is uncertainty in future climate projections a reason for users to postpone their decisions on adaptation? Kauppinen Jyrki: Reason for major climate changes. WG 12: METHODOLOGICAL AND THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURES STUDIES Wednesday 11th June 13:00–15:00 Hall F Chair: Sohail Inayatullah, Tamkang University, Taiwan Höjer Mattias & Svenfelt Åsa: What is futures studies? Minkkinen Matti: The futures of privacy: balancing trends and images of the future in studying social institutions. Chair: Jyrki Luukkanen, University of Turku, Finland Panula-Ontto Juha, Luukkanen Jyrki, Vehmas Jarmo & Kaivo-oja Jari: The “sustainability window” as a tool for combining social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Abdulkadri Abdullahi: Prospects for a Sustainable Low-Carbon Future for Jamaica. 15:30–16:30 Hall F Chair: Jyrki Luukkanen, University of Turku, Finland Evans Alecia & McKenzie Sidonia: The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in Jamaica Chambers Therese: Solar resource modelling for tropical regions using the Markov transition probability matrix method Thursday 12th June E110 13:00–15:00 Chair: Jari Kaivo-oja, University of Turku, Finland O’ Mahony Tadh & Dufour Javier: The social and cultural dimensions of sustainable development, mitigation and scenarios: Grasping the opportunities for human development. Hormio Säde: Strong sustainability: a matter of intergenerational justice. 7
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