UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 1 Obesity Update as of 1 July 2013 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Obesity Among Young Adults • • • • Qualified and Available Obesity Trends Population Trends Propensity UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 2 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Qualified Military Available (2007 Model*) 3 Qualified Military Available (QMA**): A count of youth (17-24) who are mentally, morally, and medically qualified for service, and who are free of family commitments that would make them unavailable for duty. Dependents 6% Conduct 5% Qualified Non-HSDG IIIIA & HSDG IIIB 4% Drugs 19% Medical/Physical 35% Qualified HSDG I-IIIA 3% Qualified College Graduates 2% Qualified Non-HSDG IIIB-IV & HSDG IV 6% AFQT V 9% Qualified College Enrolled I-IV 11% *Model is currently being updated and results are expected to be released Summer 2013 **QMA is the official DoD metric for eligibility. Source: The Lewin Group, 2007 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Target market 1.6 million Out of 31.2 Million young adults, 4.7 Million are available for recruiting The youth population will continue to grow to 35 million by 2025 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 4 Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults Obesity has increased dramatically in just 20 years. 1990 No Data 2000 <10% 10%–14 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30% 2011** *BMI ≥30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person. **Survey methodology changed in 2011 Source: Centers for Disease Control, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1990, 2000 and 2010. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Obesity Trends BMI ≥ 30, for 18–34 Year Olds Since 1987, the proportion of adults ages 18-34 who are considered obese (BMI > 30) has steadily increased. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 1987-2010 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 5 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 6 Obesity Trends by Gender BMI ≥ 30, for 18-24 Year-Olds 30% 25% Male Female 20% 19% 16% 16% 17% 15% 15% 14% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 9% 7% 5% 7% 6% 9% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 16% 14% 16% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 14% 12% 11% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4% 0% Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 1987-2010 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 6 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Obesity Trends by Race/Ethnicity 7 BMI ≥ 30, 18-24 Year-Olds 35% 30% White Black Hispanic 24% 25% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 21% 19% 20% 17% 14% 14% 15% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 8% 5% 4% 3% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% 7% 14% 15% 8% 8% 8% 19% 14% 11% 11% 10% 8% 18% 12% 18% 15% 13% 10% 11% 9% 8% 14% 20% 18% 12% 12% 7% 6% 4% 4% 9% 17% 16% 15% 5% 25% 24% 24% 15% 15% 16% 16% 17% 13% 9% 4% 0% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 1987-2010 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 7 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 8 Population Projections 17-24 year-olds by Race/Ethnicity Young adult minorities will equal Whites in 2040. 60% 50% 56% 48% 44% White, Non-Hispanic 40% 40% Hispanic 36% Black, Non-Hispanic 36% 30% 20% 33% 21% 28% 15% 13% 30% 14% 10% 0% Source: U.S Census, 2012 to 2060 Population Projections based on Census 2010 (released 2012) UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL 13% 13% UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Army Propensity 9 By Gender 30% % Probably/Definitely Both male and female Army propensity appear to be stable. BMI eligibility (obesity) is not related to propensity 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 16% 16% 16%16% 14% 17% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12%12% 12% 12% 12% 12%12% 11% 11% 11% 11%11%11%11% 13% 11% 13% 11%10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10%10%10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9%9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% 7% 7% 6%6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 16% 14% Aggregate Male Female Note: Youth ages 16-21 Sources: DoD Youth Attitude Tracking Study (1984-99) and JAMRS’ DoD Youth Polls (2000-present) Questions: YATS- Q503 Now, I'd like to ask you how likely it is that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years? Youth Polls- FPP9 In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military? UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL Conclusions 10 Obesity is a major factor limiting the supply of the military eligible youth population. Almost 90% of eligible youth are not interested in joining the Military (i.e., propensed). BMI eligibility (obesity) is not related to propensity. People who are BMI eligible are not anymore interested in the Military than those who are not BMI eligible. While obesity is a major factor limiting the supply of the military eligible youth population, a fundamental lack of knowledge, misperceptions, and negative attitudes about serving in the Military are even more pervasive among the youth population. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO//PRE-DECISIONAL
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