ASPI Hits 13-Month High Helping Push Y-T

ACUITY STOCKBROKERS RESEARCH | SRI LANKA EQUITIES
Weekly Market Review
ASPI Hits 13-Month High Helping Push
04 July 2014
ASPI
ASPI ^ 1.79% | S&P SL20 ^ 2.55%
The market continued its upward … Cont. P2
Foreign investors closed ... Cont. P3
6,510
ASPI
3628
6,460
S&P SL20
3598
6,410
3568
6,360
3538
6,310
A fresh round of buying … Cont. P4
S&P SL20
Indices vs. Turnover (30th June – 04th July)
Y-T-D Return on Index to 8.5%
3508
(Turnover
LKR Mn)
30-Jun 1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul
Economic Snapshot………… P5
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
30-Jun 1-Jul
2-Jul
3-Jul
4-Jul
KEY STATISTICS
July 04th
June 27th
% Change
ASPI
6,477.51
6,363.49
1.79%
S&P SL20
3,610.68
3,520.85
2.55%
Banking & Finance
15,007.07
14,623.27
2.62%
Food & Beverage
20,118.95
19,677.87
2.24%
Diversified
1,881.56
1,855.25
1.42%
Hotel & Travel
3,360.94
3,347.27
0.41%
774.35
759.77
1.92%
3,347.92
3,233.77
3.53%
Week Ending
Plantations
Manufacturing
11.49
4.06
182.75%
Foreign Buying (LKR Mn)
4,898.03
1,363.65
259.19%
Foreign Selling (LKR Mn)
1,869.54
979.70
90.83%
2.30
0.81
182.75%
Daily Average Foreign Buying (LKR Mn)
979.61
272.73
259.19%
Daily Average Foreign Selling (LKR Mn)
373.91
195.94
90.83%
Turnover (LKR Bn)
Daily Average Turnover (LKR Bn)
TOP 10 LOSERS
TOP 10 GAINERS
Company
PCH HOLDINGS
ARPICO
THE FINANCE CO.
ORIENT GARMENTS
CIC[NV]
ACL PLASTICS
G S FINANCE
TESS AGRO
S M B LEASING
CIC
Opening
Price
1.3
PCHHN
ARPIN
91.2
TFC N
16.9
OGL N
19.2
CIC X
41.0
APLAN
101.9
GSF N
39.6
TESSN
1.2
SEMBN
1.2
CIC N
55.2
Code
Closing
Price
2.9
119.7
21.7
24.3
50.9
121.3
46.3
1.4
1.4
63.9
WoW %
Change
123.1%
31.3%
28.4%
26.6%
24.1%
19.0%
16.9%
16.7%
16.7%
15.8%
Company
EQUITY TWO PLC
CEYLON PRINTERS
PIRAMAL GLASS
EQUITY
ASIA SIYAKA
STANDARD CAPITAL
BERUWELA WALKINN
CDB
ASIA ASSET
AMANA BANK
Code
ETWON
CPRTN
NIFLN
EQITN
ASIYN
SINGN
BINNN
TFC X
AAF N
ABL N
Opening
Price
38.9
1499.9
4.0
39.8
3.6
69.4
110.1
7.9
1.9
5.9
Closing
Price
33.3
1311.4
3.5
36.2
3.3
65.2
103.6
7.2
1.8
5.6
WoW %
Change
-14.4%
-12.6%
-12.5%
-9.0%
-8.3%
-6.1%
-5.9%
-8.9%
-5.3%
-5.1%
1
ACUITY STOCKBROKERS RESEARCH | SRI LANKA EQUITIES
Weekly Market Review
04 July 2014
Market Review
Indices | The market continued its upward momentum
Liquidity (in Volume Terms) | The Diversified sector
with both indices closing the week in the green. The
ASPI increased 114.02 points (or 1.79%) to close at
6477.51 points while the S&P SL 20 Index gained 89.83
points (or 2.55%) to close at 3610.68 points.
dominated the market in terms of share volume too,
accounting for 48.84% (or 318.79mn shares) of total
volume, with a value contribution of LKR 6.50bn.The
Banking & Finance sector followed suit as 88.80mn
shares (or 13.60%), amounting to LKR 1.89bn changed
hands. The Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals sector
meanwhile, contributed 9.35% to the week’s total
turnover volume as 61.05mn shares changed hands.
The sector’s volume accounted for LKR 399.81mn of
total market turnover value.
Turnover & Market Capitalization | JKH was the
highest contributor to this week’s total turnover value,
accounting
for
30.67%
of
market
turnover
(or LKR 3.53bn). Hemas Holdings followed suit with a
contribution of LKR 1.59bn, representing 13.86% of total
market turnover. Access Engineering was also amongst
the top three contributors to the week’s turnover value,
adding LKR 944.76mn (or 8.22%) to the market over the
week. Total turnover for the week increased 182.75%
W-o-W to LKR 11.49bn compared to last week’s total of
LKR 4.06bn. Daily average turnover value for the week
meanwhile, amounted to LKR 2.30bn compared to last
week’s average of LKR 0.81bn. Market capitalization
also increased over the week adding LKR 47.83bn
(or 1.79%) to close at LKR 2714.51bn compared to last
week’s close of LKR 2666.68bn.
Liquidity (in Value Terms) | On a sectoral level, the
Diversified sector was the highest contributor to the
week’s total turnover value, accounting for 56.60%
(or LKR 6.50bn) of the market. The sector was helped
primarily by JKH, Hemas & Sunshine Holdings which
contributed 86.31% to total sector turnover. The Banking
& Finance sector meanwhile, contributed LKR 1.89bn to
account for 16.40% of total market turnover. The sector
was aided mainly by Commercial and HNB which
cumulatively contributed 43.26% to total sector turnover.
The Construction sector meanwhile, was the third largest
contributor to the week’s total turnover value, adding
8.37% (or LKR 962.11mn) mainly on the back of Access
Engineering
which
contributed
98.20%
(or LKR 944.76mn) to sector turnover.
Week’s Top Gainers & Losers | PCH Holdings was
the week’s highest price gainer, increasing 123.08%
from LKR 2.90 to close at LKR 1.30. Arpico Finance
gained 31.25% W-o-W to close at LKR 119.70. The
Finance Company (V) meanwhile, gained 28.40%
W-o-W to close at LKR 21.70. Orient Garments and
CIC(NV) were also amongst the week’s top price gainers
with W-o-W gains of 26.56% and 24.15%, respectively.
Equity Two was the week’s highest price loser as the
stock declined 14.40% W-o-W to close at
LKR 33.30, relative to LKR 38.90 last week. Ceylon
Printers recorded a W-o-W price decline of 12.57% to
close at LKR 1,311.40 while Piramal Glass closed at
LKR 3.50, representing a W-o-W decline of 12.50%........
TOP 10 TURN-OVER
Company
JKH
HEMAS HOLDINGS
ACCESS ENG SL
SUNSHINE HOLDING
COMMERCIAL BANK
HNB
ADAM INVESTMENTS
PCH HOLDINGS
A.SPEN.HOT.HOLD.
CIC
Opening
Price
220.1
JKH N
HHL N
43.8
AEL N
25.0
SUN N
33.1
COMBN 139.5
HNB N
155.7
AINVN
5.0
PCHHN
1.3
AHUNN
76.0
CIC N
55.2
Code
Closing
Price
225.0
46.4
26.3
33.7
146.1
163.8
5.3
2.9
79.9
63.9
Value (Rs.
Mn)
3,525.3
1,592.8
944.8
496.1
429.5
386.1
367.8
308.6
241.1
224.5
2
ACUITY STOCKBROKERS RESEARCH | SRI LANKA EQUITIES
Weekly Market Review
04 July 2014
Market Review (Cont’d)
Net Foreign Sales (27th June - 04th July)
Net Foreign Purchases (27th June - 04th July)
SINGER FINANCE
CHEVRON
Volume Change ('000s)
HNB
VIDULLANKA
Volume Change ('000s)
PCH HOLDINGS
TOKYO CEMENT
SOFTLOGIC
PC HOUSE
PEOPLES LEASING
BROWNS INVSTMNTS
VALLIBEL
EXPOLANKA
COMMERCIAL BANK
RENUKA AGRI
ACCESS ENG SL
A.SPEN.HOT.HOLD.
JKH*
ASIA ASSET
HEMAS HOLDINGS*
SUNSHINE HOLDING*
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(2,800)
(2,240)
(1,680)
(1,120)
(560)
-
*Volume change of Hemas Holdings (33.61mn shares), JKH (6.00mn shares) and Sunshine Holdings (13.14mn shares) between 27th Jun – 04th July not
displayed
Foreign investors closed the week in a net buying position of LKR 3.03bn, relative to net inflows of LKR 0.38bn recorded
last week (+688.78% W-o-W); daily average net inflows consequently amounted to LKR 0.61bn relative to last week’s
daily average foreign inflows of LKR 0.08bn. Total foreign purchases amounted to LKR 4.90bn, increasing 259.19%
W-o-W from last week’s value of LKR 1.36bn, while total foreign sales increased 90.83% W-o-W to LKR 1.87bn, from
LKR 0.98bn recorded last week. In terms of volume meanwhile, Hemas Holdings and JKH led foreign purchases while
Sunshine Holdings and Asia Asset led foreign sales. In terms of value too, Hemas Holdings and JKH led foreign
purchases while Sunshine Holdings and Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings led foreign sales.
Company
HEMAS HOLDINGS
JKH
COMMERCIAL BANK
CHEVRON
HNB
ACCESS ENG SL
DISTILLERIES
TOKYO CEMENT
PEOPLES LEASING
ROYAL CERAMIC
Foreign Holding (%)
04/07/14
27/06/14
14.22%
7.70%
54.36%
53.76%
36.79%
36.60%
30.42%
30.12%
26.13%
26.00%
0.61%
0.36%
23.63%
23.55%
26.68%
26.49%
3.97%
3.93%
4.16%
4.08%
Net Change
33,613,813
6,004,728
1,582,784
366,004
435,944
2,425,877
253,810
438,457
644,211
95,100
Value*
(LKR. Mn)
1,559.7
1,351.1
231.2
114.2
71.4
63.8
52.7
18.3
10.4
9.9
Company
SUNSHINE HOLDING
A.SPEN.HOT.HOLD.
EXPOLANKA
ASIA ASSET
GRAIN ELEVATORS
SOFTLOGIC
RENUKA AGRI
SINGER FINANCE
BRWNS INVSTMNTS
VIDULLANKA
* Value based on VWA price and not on actual traded price
Net Change
(13,143,400)
(1,972,216)
(992,000)
(2,730,000)
(117,537)
(259,500)
(1,033,039)
(200,000)
(552,364)
(227,353)
Value*
(LKR. Mn)
(442.9)
(157.6)
(9.8)
(4.9)
(4.7)
(3.6)
(3.4)
(2.7)
(1.0)
(0.9)
* Value based on VWA price and not on actual traded price
Week Ending Net Position of Foreign Holdings
Foreign Purchases Vs. Sales
3,060
2,100
Foreign Purchases
Foreign Sales
2,295
LKR. Mn
1,575
LKR. Mn
Foreign Holding (%)
04/07/14
27/06/14
14.97%
24.80%
2.39%
2.98%
32.30%
32.35%
1.98%
2.47%
69.35%
69.55%
5.51%
5.55%
15.20%
15.39%
0.49%
0.62%
1.18%
1.21%
1.14%
1.19%
1,050
1,530
765
525
0
0
30-Jun
1-Jul
2-Jul
3-Jul
4-Jul
13-Jun
20-Jun
27-Jun
4-Jul
3
ACUITY STOCKBROKERS RESEARCH | SRI LANKA EQUITIES
Weekly Market Review
04 July 2014
Announcements for the Week
Dividend Announcements
Company
DPS (Rs.)
Final/Interim
XD Date
Nawaloka Hospitals Plc
0.06
Interim
9/7/2014
Central Industries Plc
3.00
Final
31/7/2014
Ceylon Tea Brokers Plc
0.25
Ceylon Tea Services Plc
12.50
First & Final
9/7/2014
Final
1/9/2014
Rights Issues
Company
Browns Investments Plc
Proportion
1 for 1
Rights Price
XR From
1.25
Trading Commences
5/8/2014
15/8/2014
Point of View
Inflation Declines to 28-Month low
A fresh round of buying by foreign investors reinforced
June point-to-point inflation declined to its lowest level since
markets this week, helping push the ASPI to a 13-month
February 2012, reaching 2.8% Y-o-Y on the back of the
high of 6477.51 points. Net foreign flows to the bourse
base effect and minimal price increases in the Non-food
(LKR 3.0Bn) hit its highest level since May (LKR 6.9Bn)
category. Annual average inflation too declined to 4.9% Y-
as foreign ownership in conglomerate Hemas Holdings
o-Y (5.3% Y-o-Y in May) while core inflation (which
increased to 14.42% (from 7.7%) and sustained interest
excludes items that are sensitive to price shocks) also
in blue-chips JKH and Commercial Bank propped
declined to 3.0% Y-o-Y (3.1% Y-o- in May). Both due to
purchases. Market turnover was consequently higher,
prudent demand management policies and easing global
averaging LKR 2.31Bn over the week. Heavy HNI,
commodity prices, inflation levels have been trending lower
institutional and foreign participation over the past few
since a peak of 4.9% Y-o-Y in April 2014. Muted inflationary
weeks have helped boost daily average turnover levels in
pressures
2014 (LKR 1.05bn) a 27.4% increase from the full year
increasingly accommodative policy stance by the Central
average in 2013 (LKR 0.82bn). Y-T-D net foreign inflows
Bank. Rates on Government securities have declined
meanwhile, have reached LKR 9.13bn, with net inflows of
between 272-435 bps since April 2013 while money market
LKR 2.84bn recorded over the first 4 days of July. Similar
rates have declined approx. 248bps.Equity markets have
upbeat sentiment is likely to in the week ahead as
consequently been stronger (with a lagged effect) and
retailers continue to take cues from HNI, institutional and
markets have been on a relatively strong uptrend since
foreign investors.
hitting a low February 2014. By close of trade on Friday, the
since
March
2013
have
resulted
in
an
broad market index had risen 11% from its YTD low,
representing a YTD return of 8.5%.
4
ACUITY STOCKBROKERS RESEARCH | SRI LANKA EQUITIES
Weekly Market Review
04 July 2014
Economic Snapshot
Oct ‘13
Nov ‘13
Dec ‘13
Jan ‘14
Feb ‘14
Mar ‘14
Apr ‘14
May ‘14
11.84
9.93
12.57
6.2
11.45
9.79
12.38
6.7
10.95
9.52
11.96
5.6
9.96
9.37
11.78
4.7
9.70
9.14
11.46
4.4
9.40
8.83
10.99
4.2
8.81
8.45
10.47
4.2
8.38
7.74
9.45
3.2
Interest Rates
Prime Lending Rate
Ave. Wtd. Deposit Rates
Ave. Wtd. Fixed Dep. Rates
CCPI (N) AA Inflation %
2012
6.3%
GDP Growth
2013
7.3%
Source Central Bank
Exchange Rate, Rs. vs. US$
Inflation (CCPI-N) YoY%
12.0
140.0
9.0
CCPI
124.0
116.0
3.0
108.0
100.0
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
0.0
Aug-11
Feb-14
Source: Central Bank
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Tea Prices
Rs.
425
15
13
400
11
375
9
350
7
325
5
Jan-10
300
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-10
Jan-14
Source: Central Bank
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Source: Sri Lanka Tea Board
Export & Trade Balance
Trends in Tourist Arrivals
600
1600
200
1200
-200
800
-600
400
-1000
80%
180,000
Trade Balance
2000
150,000
Y-o-Y Growth
60%
120,000
40%
90,000
60,000
20%
Y-o-Y Growth
T- Bill (6M ) Rate (%)
Feb-12
Source: Central Bank
6 Month T-Bill Yield
Exports - Imports
6.0
Total Arrivals
Rs /USD
132.0
30,000
0
Jan-10
-1400
May-11
Exports (LHS)
Source: Central Bank
Sep-12
Imports (LHS)
Jan-14
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
0%
Jan-14
Trade Balance (RHS)
Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
5
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