Consensus Q4 AND FY 2016 - 2020. Details.
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Deutsche Telekom AG for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding our revenues, earnings and business developments.
Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Deutsche Telekom gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
Haftungsausschluss
Dieses Dokument wurde von der Deutschen Telekom AG ausschließlich zu Informationszwecken erstellt und dient keinesfalls der Anlageberatung. Es beruht auf der Bewertung der bisherigen und Einschätzung der zukünftigen Umsatz-, Gewinn- und
Geschäftsentwicklung durch verschiedene Börsenanalysten. Die Bewertungen und Einschätzungen sind wegen ihres subjektiven Charakters einer unabhängigen Verifizierung nicht zugänglich. Trotz sorgfältiger Prüfung kann die Deutsche Telekom AG keine Garantie,
Zusicherung oder Gewährleistung für die Vollständigkeit und Richtigkeit abgeben; eine Verantwortlichkeit und Haftung ist folglich insoweit ausgeschlossen.
High
5.616
1.671
268
0,00
100
85
202
2.877
9.118
9.811
7.210
1
36
1.197
541
2.100
3.313
325
376
256
226
764
438
206
227
260
2.027
552
-1.426
19.206
18
19
11
6
14
12
9
14
20
19
18
15
9
10
10
11
18
18
19
18
18
17
18
18
18
17
21
20
18
21
5.671
1.706
350
0,50%
136
100
389
2.984
9.482
10.278
7.395
1,09
48
1.200
904
2.285
3.394
346
404
263
235
789
505
226
257
281
2.125
661
-1.283
20.755
5.528
1.648
-214
-0,90%
75
50
57
2.736
8.721
9.416
6.532
1,06
34
800
400
1.445
3.225
314
345
232
202
746
396
187
208
218
1.930
443
-1.479
18.673
5.606
1.672
176
-0,22%
104
83
228
2.876
9.111
9.828
7.190
1,08
39
1.143
549
1.933
3.308
327
375
255
224
763
447
206
228
258
2.027
553
-1.410
19.231
22.027
6.672
1.207
-0,7%
454
276
1.250
2.878
33.411
36.909
27.486
1,11
34
4.097
2.437
8.173
12.724
1.300
1.470
957
861
2.896
1.665
770
916
978
7.956
2.166
-5.528
72.726
18
19
12
6
15
13
11
15
20
19
18
15
9
10
10
11
19
18
19
18
18
17
18
18
18
17
21
20
20
21
22.080
6.707
1.346
-0,4%
490
495
1.381
2.984
33.775
37.345
27.994
1,11
47
4.100
4.076
8.972
12.801
1.321
1.498
964
870
2.920
1.731
790
945
999
8.054
2.275
0
78.409
21.876
6.649
782
-1,2%
429
241
248
2.857
33.004
36.535
24.654
1,09
34
2.732
2.041
4.914
12.629
1.289
1.439
933
837
2.877
1.622
751
896
936
7.859
2.057
-5.949
72.224
22.010
6.673
1.169
-0,7%
458
291
1.082
2.894
33.408
36.923
27.406
1,10
39
3.773
2.506
7.667
12.714
1.302
1.469
956
859
2.894
1.673
770
916
976
7.956
2.167
-5.262
72.972
22.012
6.657
670
-0,8%
400
257
870
3.185
37.661
40.248
30.276
1,07
35
3.159
1.620
5.486
12.690
1.300
1.454
958
867
2.895
1.676
772
912
975
7.905
2.106
-5.495
77.038
18
19
12
6
15
13
11
15
20
19
18
15
9
10
10
11
19
18
19
18
18
17
18
18
18
17
21
20
19
21
22.212
6.861
1.355
-0,3%
800
400
1.613
3.996
38.979
41.318
31.476
1,11
47
3.915
2.134
8.650
12.880
1.394
1.542
969
902
2.985
1.795
802
964
1.051
8.088
2.280
-5.236
83.593
21.580
6.505
129
-2,2%
198
11
167
3.018
35.264
38.207
26.793
1,04
33
2.100
1.280
4.171
12.482
1.186
1.313
923
840
2.844
1.602
743
867
893
7.533
1.860
-6.190
73.713
21.944
6.651
686
-1,0%
400
245
863
3.210
37.424
40.047
30.117
1,07
39
3.106
1.717
5.791
12.681
1.291
1.434
956
869
2.911
1.684
769
910
979
7.843
2.107
-5.542
76.725
22.169
6.718
570
1,0%
375
235
680
3.449
39.752
42.444
32.501
1,07
35
2.600
1.390
4.350
12.686
1.300
1.456
962
879
2.900
1.690
773
914
981
7.877
2.068
-5.468
78.673
18
19
12
6
15
13
11
14
20
19
18
15
9
10
10
11
19
18
19
18
18
17
18
18
18
17
21
20
19
21
22.535
7.125
1.293
1,2%
800
370
1.355
7.989
42.582
43.810
34.324
1,11
47
3.557
2.176
7.275
13.057
1.383
1.605
984
920
3.029
1.773
815
973
1.076
8.266
2.292
-5.056
86.031
21.475
6.513
125
-0,5%
98
7
185
3.197
36.609
40.016
28.721
1,02
33
1.700
980
3.350
11.559
1.127
1.275
911
822
2.783
1.602
723
833
901
7.232
1.682
-6.368
75.165
22.070
6.712
628
0,5%
350
224
749
3.733
39.608
42.272
32.327
1,07
39
2.614
1.388
4.700
12.657
1.281
1.435
960
875
2.926
1.689
772
908
987
7.821
2.069
-5.509
78.902
22.317
6.781
500
1,1%
300
215
540
3.733
42.197
44.744
34.400
1,06
39
2.125
980
3.690
12.795
1.310
1.430
971
884
2.905
1.702
775
915
983
7.889
2.054
-5.485
81.510
15
17
11
6
13
12
10
14
17
17
16
13
8
9
8
10
16
16
17
16
16
15
16
16
16
15
18
17
17
18
22.977
7.368
1.031
2,6%
800
367
1.300
4.010
45.383
46.230
36.740
1,11
47
3.066
1.500
6.125
13.293
1.404
1.632
1.002
946
3.076
1.789
828
980
1.106
8.413
2.280
0
88.540
21.205
6.610
125
-0,6%
50
35
203
3.092
38.162
41.157
30.169
1,01
33
0
0
742
11.471
1.064
1.249
900
832
2.754
1.602
703
800
913
7.015
1.521
-6.559
76.101
22.230
6.814
554
1,1%
336
209
659
3.669
41.754
44.192
34.232
1,06
40
1.804
871
3.589
12.713
1.280
1.439
965
883
2.947
1.697
778
908
996
7.845
2.025
-5.204
81.225
22.524
6.858
350
1,2%
325
200
498
3.986
43.935
46.061
35.503
1,06
42
1.500
500
3.099
12.914
1.322
1.431
973
897
2.968
1.692
780
919
986
7.928
2.051
-5.458
83.291
13
16
11
6
11
11
10
14
15
15
15
12
7
7
7
8
14
16
16
16
16
14
16
16
16
14
16
16
16
16
23.473
7.584
1.000
2,7%
600
326
1.300
4.433
47.516
48.363
38.902
1,11
47
2.667
1.024
5.225
13.210
1.435
1.590
1.022
971
3.124
1.806
840
985
1.140
8.564
2.273
0
90.642
21.479
6.550
100
-1,0%
150
32
187
2.877
38.752
41.794
31.425
1,01
32
0
-400
875
11.402
991
1.224
882
823
2.725
1.586
683
766
926
6.874
1.375
-6.735
76.619
22.484
6.894
465
1,1%
332
189
613
3.912
43.353
45.795
35.586
1,06
40
1.267
452
2.881
12.734
1.282
1.432
969
891
2.974
1.703
784
911
1.003
7.882
2.010
-5.160
83.164
5.280
9.083
3.235
1.467
151
14
5.632
5.216
5.315
22.041
20.521
20.762
22.016
20.354
20.690
22.205
20.449
20.830
22.448
20.405
21.037
22.064
20.177
21.081
33.775
12.698
7.893
2.015
31.084
11.866
5.624
465
33.231
12.368
6.014
630
14
14
14
13
38.975
12.790
7.893
1.984
35.141
11.988
5.407
367
37.459
12.356
5.925
619
14
14
14
13
42.582
13.057
8.129
1.960
37.392
11.262
5.346
367
39.542
12.332
5.925
613
12
12
12
11
45.383
13.293
8.373
1.945
39.256
11.176
5.241
367
41.513
12.393
6.013
629
21.093
42.035
12.563
5.628
495
11
14
14
14
13
20.924
40.785
12.461
5.673
495
12
9.058
3.231
1.539
207
20.737
39.243
12.358
5.655
498
14
8.519
3.094
1.328
100
20.606
37.779
12.346
5.678
503
14
9.482
3.378
2.019
570
20.679
33.364
12.392
5.763
516
14
14
14
14
13
11
11
11
11
47.516
12.770
7.558
1.930
40.238
11.109
5.188
367
42.879
12.381
5.833
627
Q4
DE
Mobile Service revs
Mobile Contract Net Adds Germany ['000]
Mobile Serv Rev Market yoy
Retail Line Losses ['000]
BB retail Net Adds DT ['000]
Broadband Net Adds total market ['000]
TV Customer
USA (gross revs in €)
Gross revs in $
Service revs in $
FX-Rate: 1 Euro for ...
ARPU [$]
Net Adds: Branded Contract ['000]
Net Adds: Branded Prepayed ['000]
Net Adds: Total ['000]
EU
Netherland
Poland
Czechs
Austria
Greece
Hungary
Slovakia
Croatia
Romania
T-Systems
GHS
Reconciliation
Group revenues
Net Revenues
DE
USA
EU
T-Systems
GHS
As of February 13,
13 2017
Low
Average
FY
16
Low
Average
FY
17
Low
Average
FY
18
Low
Average
FY
19
Low
Average
FY
20
Low
Average
CAGR
16/20
0,6% DE
0,7% Mobile Service revs
-26,6% Mobile Contract Net Adds Germany ['000]
Mobile Serv Rev Market yoy
-8,0% Retail Line Losses ['000]
-7,7% BB retail Net Adds DT ['000]
-20,6% Broadband Net Adds total market ['000]
8,5% TV Customer
7,1% USA (gross revs in €)
5,7%
Gross revs in $
6,6% Service revs in $
-1,0% FX-Rate: 1 Euro for ...
5,3% ARPU [$]
-22,2% Net Adds: Branded Contract ['000]
-32,7% Net Adds: Branded Prepayed ['000]
-21,5%
0,4%
0,4%
-0,7%
0,4%
1,0%
0,6%
0,4%
0,3%
0,1%
0,2%
-0,1%
-1,4%
-0,3%
3,4%
Net Adds: Total ['000]
EU
Netherland
Poland
Czechs
Austria
Greece
Hungary
Slovakia
Croatia
Romania
T-Systems
GHS
Reconciliation
Group revenues
Net Revenues
0,5% DE
5,9%
0,3%
-0,6%
-1,1%
USA
EU
T-Systems
GHS
1
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
High
# of estimates
Consensus Q4 AND FY 2016 - 2020. Details.
High
2.113
2.308
2.492
2.234
1.020
90
121
105
65
290
122
21
21
19
9
21
18
18
18
18
17
18
2.172
2.408
2.596
2.322
1.074
107
160
109
72
365
131
2.076
2.180
2.103
2.156
947
81
100
91
53
265
111
2.123
2.312
2.480
2.226
1.020
92
120
104
65
291
122
8.778
8.548
9.490
8.445
4.147
371
466
407
282
1.124
539
21
21
19
9
21
18
18
18
18
17
18
8.827
8.648
10.419
9.368
4.197
388
511
411
289
1.410
546
8.731
8.300
8.177
7.180
4.071
352
421
393
270
1.099
526
8.780
8.548
9.514
8.516
4.145
371
468
406
281
1.138
537
8.873
10.057
10.802
9.865
4.144
361
458
405
282
1.135
535
21
21
19
9
21
18
18
18
18
17
18
9.041
10.703
11.356
10.248
4.271
420
491
423
305
1.434
560
8.685
9.444
9.653
9.066
3.982
312
405
387
264
1.083
498
8.875
10.069
10.734
9.644
4.123
364
456
405
284
1.154
535
9.086
10.954
11.711
10.897
4.164
364
452
408
285
1.157
533
21
21
19
9
21
18
18
18
18
17
18
9.300
12.349
12.638
11.155
4.317
416
513
431
312
1.449
569
8.615
10.101
10.849
9.811
3.966
278
367
382
253
1.067
512
9.056
11.029
11.725
10.698
4.155
364
458
407
287
1.170
538
9.307
11.774
12.503
11.709
4.211
367
461
410
290
1.167
536
18
18
17
8
18
16
16
16
16
15
16
9.656
13.615
14.123
12.312
4.344
431
516
440
328
1.456
580
8.708
10.549
11.329
10.466
3.946
295
353
378
263
1.032
513
9.263
11.953
12.624
11.575
4.190
368
460
409
291
1.181
542
9.516
12.592
13.419
12.402
4.270
370
470
412
294
1.177
540
16
16
15
8
16
16
16
16
16
15
16
10.043
14.281
15.613
13.252
4.420
454
528
449
343
1.463
590
8.806
11.316
12.263
10.986
4.016
295
353
368
269
1.039
503
9.464
12.777
13.473
12.222
4.247
373
465
410
297
1.193
545
Adj. EBITDA
2,0% DE
10,2% USA
9,0%
$
10,1%
$ Ex handset leasing & data stash
0,7% EU
-0,1% Netherland
0,2% Poland
0,3% Czechs
1,0% Austria
1,2% Greece
0,1% Hungary
65
94
52
177
-300
-3
5.312
2.999
18
18
16
21
21
14
21
20
88
105
71
218
-227
17
5.497
3.238
60
84
42
136
-345
-33
5.164
2.312
70
94
53
172
-303
-1
5.325
2.951
306
374
181
699
-639
-50
21.467
12.903
18
18
16
21
21
19
21
20
328
385
200
797
-562
-30
21.652
13.071
300
364
165
658
-712
-90
21.319
8.548
309
374
182
697
-641
-52
21.479
12.481
307
370
185
707
-637
-47
23.132
13.050
18
18
16
21
21
17
21
20
330
391
210
883
-516
-20
23.622
14.753
292
339
146
619
-712
-95
22.269
9.785
308
369
184
724
-634
-47
23.116
12.820
307
371
194
716
-635
-48
24.401
13.293
18
18
16
21
21
17
21
20
333
397
233
946
-509
-20
25.501
15.825
284
327
150
622
-760
-98
23.025
10.526
308
370
192
741
-631
-47
24.310
13.161
310
371
196
716
-621
-47
25.462
13.621
16
16
14
18
18
16
18
17
338
402
236
1.016
-476
0
26.966
16.922
276
318
154
629
-810
-101
23.551
12.968
311
368
200
756
-624
-41
25.503
13.758
313
376
203
748
-607
-47
26.811
14.122
16
16
14
16
16
15
16
15
343
405
266
1.056
-450
0
28.119
17.881
268
310
158
635
-860
-103
24.460
13.089
313
370
209
791
-614
-41
26.626
14.146
0,6%
0,1%
2,9%
1,7%
-1,3%
-1,5%
5,7%
2,3%
5.089
9
5.256
4.974
5.096
20.606
9
21.349
20.474
20.708
22.261
9
22.802
21.439
22.160
23.802
9
24.054
22.288
23.439
25.028
8
25.431
23.011
24.630
25.880
8
26.605
23.381
25.513
37,79%
25,20%
30,99%
8,50%
,
27,60%
18
20
18
38,7%
27,0%
33,3%
36,9%
24,5%
28,8%
37,87%
25,38%
30,84%
18
20
19
40,3%
26,0%
33,2%
39,6%
25,0%
32,1%
39,89%
25,59%
32,60%
41,0%
28,0%
33,2%
39,7%
25,1%
31,6%
40,44%
26,90%
32,51%
42,1%
29,8%
34,3%
39,6%
25,9%
31,5%
41,03%
27,85%
32,83%
43,3%
31,4%
34,4%
39,8%
26,4%
31,5%
41,67%
28,63%
32,96%
44,6%
32,8%
35,2%
39,9%
27,0%
31,8%
42,09%
29,47%
33,35%
Adj. EBITDA-Margin
1,7% DE
3,5% USA
0,5% EU
21
21
10,1%
29,8%
8,3%
27,3%
8,76%
29,43%
21
21
11,1%
30,9%
7,9%
27,7%
9,23%
30,1%
21
21
12,0%
31,9%
8,0%
28,0%
9,47%
30,81%
18
18
12,9%
32,9%
8,0%
28,7%
9,64%
31,40%
42,60%
29,35%
33,29%
9,27%
,
32,17%
13
15
14
8,50%
27,69%
42,10%
28,85%
33,06%
9,04%
,
31,51%
15
17
16
6,8%
25,4%
41,25%
28,06%
32,90%
9,03%
,
30,82%
18
20
19
11,3%
28,9%
40,45%
27,02%
32,56%
8,93%
,
30,28%
18
20
19
21
20
39,85%
25,56%
32,62%
8,73%
,
29,48%
16
16
13,4%
34,3%
8,0%
29,3%
10,03%
32,02%
1,5% T-Systems
j Group
p EBITDA-Margin
g
2,2% Adj.
1.244
799
861
461
300
113
2.874
18
18
17
18
18
18
20
1346
1.305
1.372
563
375
200
3.585
1065
721
778
392
230
60
2.624
1.233
879
925
470
308
119
2.897
4.155
4.253
4.710
1.747
1.042
286
11.159
20
20
18
20
20
20
21
4.400
5.951
6.586
2.850
1.122
580
13.298
3.987
4.174
4.026
1.231
968
235
10.451
4.159
4.499
4.874
1.953
1.052
303
11.316
4.507
4.717
5.068
1.689
985
279
11.833
20
19
17
20
20
20
21
4.691
5.183
5.347
3.080
1.128
600
13.081
4.353
4.271
4.727
1.347
839
226
10.562
4.514
4.730
5.047
1.766
976
296
11.836
4.402
4.924
5.318
1.658
931
273
11.884
20
20
18
20
20
20
21
4.650
5.224
5.586
2.811
1.134
600
12.940
3.410
4.529
4.952
1.388
747
192
10.837
4.327
4.938
5.276
1.759
938
287
11.883
4.167
5.084
5.463
1.657
925
251
11.799
18
18
16
18
18
18
18
4.500
5.673
5.864
2.610
1.140
600
12.986
3.050
4.706
5.100
1.409
738
142
10.635
4.064
5.130
5.469
1.717
915
273
11.781
4.050
5.336
5.688
1.680
903
238
11.638
16
16
15
16
16
16
16
4.446
5.712
6.106
2.568
1.146
350
12.734
3.150
4.544
4.900
1.439
706
92
10.063
3.859
5.269
5.618
1.721
898
243
11.658
-0,6%
5,8%
4,8%
-1,0%
-3,5%
-4,5%
1,1%
938
933
17
3
1.370
991
674
869
1.000
931
49.219 19
396 13
55.306
500
47.094
83
49.534
349
4.927
1.540
0,60
49.297
2.642
21
5
18
21
16
5.416
1.968
0,70
55.306
6.897
3.456
1.174
0,55
47.094
1.000
4.839
1.561
0,60
49.744
2.675
5.402
2.457
0,65
53.501
7.073
21
5
18
21
14
6.432
3.336
0,70
58.054
11.651
4.040
-2.375
0,60
44.105
4.072
5.344
1.726
0,66
52.971
7.286
6.495
3.546
0,71
50.165
500
21
5
18
21
11
7.641
4.138
0,80
55.560
1.250
5.243
266
0,67
41.266
50
6.387
2.860
0,72
49.754
520
7.924
4.239
0,79
45.510
275
18
4
16
18
8
8.868
5.436
1,03
52.012
1.250
6.189
1.926
0,50
36.751
133
7.624
3.960
0,77
44.828
390
8.460
3.765
0,88
40.130
300
16
4
15
16
8
11.040
5.750
1,21
47.921
1.250
6.842
1.028
0,50
29.979
189
8.535
3.577
0,87
39.507
505
14,5%
25,0%
10,0%
-5,0%
-42,0%
3.655
3.378
2.509
1.212
998
2.900
2.886
1.658
118
-2.495
3.273
3.069
2.040
695
274
12.720
11.560
8.686
3.775
5.215
17
4
17
18
17
13.087
11.716
9.208
4.737
5.972
11.815
11.351
7.607
1.685
1.685
12.687
11.546
8.629
3.626
4.671
12.866
12.033
10.218
4.543
3.761
17
4
17
18
17
13.653
12.251
11.493
5.252
4.814
12.076
11.708
9.478
3.603
2.919
12.839
12.006
10.283
4.508
3.812
12.722
11.641
11.478
5.224
4.723
17
4
17
18
17
13.740
12.608
12.990
6.490
5.490
12.124
11.584
10.092
4.106
3.840
12.872
11.869
11.476
5.272
4.653
12.856
11.928
12.571
6.086
5.704
16
4
16
17
15
14.073
12.918
14.145
6.992
6.564
12.318
11.513
10.815
4.566
4.481
12.952
12.072
12.561
5.976
5.514
12.992
12.314
13.609
6.845
6.350
15
4
15
15
14
14.265
13.088
14.902
7.598
7.104
12.327
11.595
11.092
5.508
4.939
13.045
12.328
13.421
6.715
6.345
0,5%
1,6%
11,9%
16,0%
5,0%
Q4
Adj. EBITDA
DE
USA
$
$ Ex handset leasing & data stash
EU
Netherland
Poland
Czechs
Austria
Greece
Hungary
Slovakia
Croatia
Romania
T-Systems
GHS
Reconciliation
Adj. Group EBITDA
ex US EBITDA
Adj. Group EBITDA ex handset leasing &
data stash
Adj. EBITDA-Margin
DE
USA
EU
T-Systems
j Group
p EBITDA-Margin
g
Adj.
Cash Capex (w/o Spectrum)
DE
USA
USA $
EU
T-Systems
GHS
Group Cash Capex (w/o Spectrum)
FCF before dividends
FCF reported by TMUS
Dividend per Share
Net Financial Debt
Assumed spending on spectrum
Adj. D&A
Adj. D&A ex handset leasing
Adj. Group EBIT
Net income adjusted
Net Income (reported)
3.278
2.943
2.036
715
514
16
3
16
17
14
Low
Average
FY
16
Low
Average
FY
17
Low
Average
FY
18
Low
Average
FY
19
Low
Average
FY
20
Low
Average
CAGR
16/20
Slovakia
Croatia
Romania
T-Systems
GHS
Reconciliation
Adj. Group EBITDA
ex US EBITDA
Adj. Group EBITDA ex handset leasing &
5,9% data stash
Cash Capex (w/o Spectrum)
DE
USA
USA $
EU
T-Systems
GHS
Group Cash Capex (w/o Spectrum)
FCF before dividends
FCF reported by TMUS
Dividend per Share
Net Financial Debt
Assumed spending on spectrum
Adj. D&A
Adj. D&A ex handset leasing
Adj. Group EBIT
Net income adjusted
Net Income (reported)
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Deutsche Telekom AG for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding our revenues, earnings and business developments.
Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Deutsche Telekom gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
Haftungsausschluss
Dieses Dokument wurde von der Deutschen Telekom AG ausschließlich zu Informationszwecken erstellt und dient keinesfalls der Anlageberatung. Es beruht auf der Bewertung der bisherigen und Einschätzung der zukünftigen Umsatz-, Gewinn- und
Geschäftsentwicklung durch verschiedene Börsenanalysten. Die Bewertungen und Einschätzungen sind wegen ihres subjektiven Charakters einer unabhängigen Verifizierung nicht zugänglich. Trotz sorgfältiger Prüfung kann die Deutsche Telekom AG keine Garantie,
Zusicherung oder Gewährleistung für die Vollständigkeit und Richtigkeit abgeben; eine Verantwortlichkeit und Haftung ist folglich insoweit ausgeschlossen.
As of February 13,
13 2017
2