Strategies and Policy/Technology Instruments for Sustainable Land Use and Transport - International Comparisons Yoshitsugu Hayashi Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society) 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 1 URGENT! There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. WCTRS could help UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process. WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society) The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of interests. 67 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500 members. President: Anthony May (University of Leeds, UK) Chair of Scientific Committee: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan) PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA - Recommendations from WCTRS to COP17 - WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched: a) Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities, b) Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance, c) Providing scientific instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for environmentally sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources. Sponsored by: Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment, Japan World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS) http://www.wctrs.org/ Supported by: Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”, Nagoya University, Japan College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, China December 2011 Contact: Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, Japan TEL: +81-52-789-2773 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/ 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 2 School boy waiting for a bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok(1993) Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 3 Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok 8hr+ Commuters > 10% (1993) Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993) 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 4 Bike Taxi in Bangkok Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993) 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 5 Photo by Hayashi (1993) Sift to low-emission mode（SHIFT） Rise of Income Increment of car ownership Motorization Obstacle to progress of economy Excessive Traffic demand Insufficient Public Transport Development of Infrastructure Rising costs to Econ. Growth Econ. Increment of car use Traffic congestion Bottleneck of Trafficof Increment Insufficiency of Road supply infrastructure Level of Technology Urbaniza tion Expansion of urban area Urban Sprawl Increment of VKT Restraint of unnecessary demand（AVOID） 7June2012 Improvement of emission factor （IMPROVE） Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University energy consumption Env. Problems from local to global 6 Cars per 1,000 inhabitants 500 ‘95 450 Nagoya 400 350 Moscow 300 ‘90 London ‘95 ‘02 250 Bangkok ‘99 150 ‘70 100‘60 50 ‘90 ‘02 Tokyo ‘80 ‘95 200 ‘85 Seoul ‘00 ‘80 ‘90 ‘95 ‘85 ‘95 Singapore (CA) Beijing ‘00 Shanghai ‘95 Hong kong 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per Capita US$ (1995) 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7 Road Infrastructure Supply vs. Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed 1972 Bangkok Tokyo 1971 London Nagoya 1988 1986 1993 1993 10 7June2012 8 6 4 Speed (min/km) 2 Road length per car(m/car) 1972 18 18 16 16 14 14 1972 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 00 1972 1972 Bangkok 1987 1988 Tokyo 1971 1993 1986 London Nagoya 1988 Shanghai 1993 100 200 300 400 500 600 Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants) Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 8 Motorization & Road Supply 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 9 × AVOID Total Trip Generation Emission × SHIFT Degree of Car dependence Total Trip Length IMPROVE Technical Level Emission Factor Modal Share ＝ × year Urban area Concentration of urban activity Transport Frequency 7June2012 × year year year Level of congestion Public Transport Improvement Fuel Economy Road Improvement LEV Ratio Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 10 CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) Strategy Instrument Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Pedestrian friendly urban design Technology TOD Regulation Compact city Mix land use Access permits Information Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign Economy 7June2012 Locationa l Subsidy Fuel tax Road pricing Improve Improve alternative modes Rail/bus infrastructure Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels IMTS LEV Alternative fuel Bus/tram priorities TDM Emission standard Top runner program Bus location system Eco-drive IT/ITS Rail/bus fare Yoshitsugu Hayashi Laboratory, Hayashi, Nagoya University Road pricing IT / ITS LEV subsidy LEV preferential tax 11 CUTE Matrix: Avoid Strategy Instrument Technology Regulation Information Economy 7June2012 Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Transit Pedestrian Oriented TOD friendly urban Development design (TOD) Compact city Access Mix land permits use Improve Improve alternative modes Rail/bus Railway infrastructure development Bus/tram priorities Tokyo, London, Teleworki Bus location Singapore ng system Locationa Urban Compaction Car sharing Awareness campaign l Subsidy Fuel tax Road pricing Rail/bus fare Yoshitsugu Hayashi Laboratory, Hayashi, Nagoya University Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels IMTS LEV Alternative fuel TDM Emission standard Top runner program Eco-drive IT/ITS Road pricing IT / ITS LEV subsidy LEV preferential tax 12 AVOID AVOID Change in Built-up Areas Changes in Built-up Areas Tokyo 0 Nagoya 1910 50 km 1965 1985 London 7June2012 Bangkok Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University * Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 13 AVOID Tokyo max. 15,400 Nagoya max. 1 7 , 1 0 0 7June2012 London Bangkok max. 1 1 , 5 0 0 max. 4 2 , 142 0 0 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University Transit Oriented Development 1. Purchased undeveloped land 2. Improved the infrastructure and constructed new railway • Supermarket in station, department store in city terminal, leisure site in terminal 3. Sold the land again • Restore the development benefits TOD without public investment 1970 New town construction by Tokyu Railway Company Around Tana Station, Yokohama city source: left: http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html right: Google maps 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 2012 15 CUTE Matrix: Shift Strategy Instrument Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Pedestrian friendly urban design Technology TOD Regulation Compact city Mix land use Access permits Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign Information Economy 7June2012 Locationa l Subsidy Fuel tax Road pricing Improve Improve alternative modes Rail/bus Rail infrastructure Improvement Bus/tram priorities Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels IMTS LEV Alternative fuel TDM Emission standard Top runner program Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Bus location Eco-drive IT / ITS Shanghai, London system IT/ITS Mass Transit SystemLEVfor subsidy Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV preferential Urban/Sububan Lines tax Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 16 Tokyo Seoul 615 (15,000) 606 (1,900) 600 (2,900) 700 319 (18,000) 8.8 (35.2) 9.9 (19.9) 10.0 (18.4) 4.5 3.0 (20.0) Urban railway (km) 292 338 420 138 652 Avg car speed (km/h) 26 17 20 32 26 Area (km2) Population (million) Shanghai Singapore London (): 2010 data of urban area in the Metropolitan Region (source: demographia) 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 17 walk Seoul 4% car (23wards) cycle Tokyo 11% 14% walk 22% rail 36% bus 5% rail 48% (2008) cycle 20% Shanghai car 20% (city) bus (2004) 33% cycle 3% 7June2012 London walk 36% walk 27% rail 4% (2009) cycle (city) 1% car 26% bus 29% Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University rail 17% (Inner London) car 25% bus 19% (2007) 18 D O Inner TOKYO 23Wards 14% 8% Inner 10% TOKYO Outer TOKYO 1% 3% 17% 65% 1% 78% 23 Wards Total : 3. 07 million trip/day 1%4%1% 0% Outer TOKYO 3% Total : 0.35 illion trip/day 13% 9% 46% 29% 94% 3% Total : 7.2 million trip/day Total : 3.06 million trip/day Car Bus/Tram Rail Walk Cycle Urban Railway Network 15km Tokyo Seoul 10km 15km 10km 5km 5km Tokyo Seoul Total Line Length 2,313 476 km City 292 338 km Hinterland 2,021 138 km 7June2012 © Y. Hayashi & S.Lee Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 20 Urban Railway Network Shanghai London 5km 5km 10km 10km 15km 15km Total Line Length (km) City (km) Hinterland (km) 7June2012 Tokyo Seoul Shanghai London 2,313 476 729 1,401 292 338 420 652 2,021 138 309 749 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 21 After SHIFT SHIFT 7June2012 22 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi(2002) SHIFT SHIFT Mass-transit Network of Future Bangkok 2010 84.8km planning： 2016 236km 2019 391km 2029 509km （12lines） Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass transit system in Bangkok and its vicinity（2010） 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 23 CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Car by Railway Development By 2050, railway will be developed as same level in Tokyo in 2005. Without Railway CO2 Emission formCOPC Change of （comparing 2010） Passenger-car-oriented 2 emission change rate Development during mature stage （2030～2050） Developed during early stage （2010～2030） 8 Car Ownership（Car/1000person） PassengerPassenger cars per 1000 inhavitants SHIFT SHIFT 450 2050 400 350 2050 2050 300 2050 2005 250 Bangkok 200 Shanghai 150 100 Delhi 1993 100 1965 1993 1965 1000 2050 (2010年排出量＝1) Tokyo 1999 50 0 7 Beijing Nagoya 2005 10000 100000 1000000 GRP par capita （US dollars in 2003） GRP per capita [US$ in 2003] 6 Shanghai 5 4 If railway might be developed during early stage, 36% of CO2 can be reduced. If including technological innovation, around 80-86% of CO2 can be reduce. 2050 3 2050 Delhi 2 Beijing 2050 1 2010 2010 2010 2010 Bangkok 0 1000 7June2012 10000 100000 1000000 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 24 GRP par capita （US[US$ dollars in 2003） GRP per capita in 2003] SHIFT 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 25 CUTE Matrix: Shft Strategy Instrument Technology Regulation Information Economy 7June2012 Avoid Reduce need to travel TOD Shift Reduce car use Pedestrian friendly urban design Improve Improve alternative modes MRT Rail/bus LRT infrastructure development Compact city Mix land use Access permits Bus priority Bus/tram (BRT) priorities Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign IT/ITS Bus location operation system system Fuel tax Road pricing PT fare Rail/bus systemfare Locationa l Subsidy Hayashi Laboratory, Yoshitsugu Hayashi,Nagoya NagoyaUniversity University Improve road network IMTS Improve vehicles and fuels LEV Alternative fuel Singapore & Emission standard TDM Seoul Top runner program Hierarchically Eco-drive IT / ITS Integrated IT/ITS Transport Road pricing LEV subsidy LEV preferential tax 26 Recent Expansion Plan for the City Centre and Railway Network in Singapore Marina Bay development (2008) 7June2012 (Sun, G., LTA) Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 27 SHIFT LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore Bukit Panjang LRT • 8 km, 14 stations • Opened in 1999 Sengkang LRT • 11km, 14 stations • Integrated with Sengkang MRT • Fully-automated system • Opened in 2003 Punggol LRT • 10km, 15 stations • Integrated with Punggol MRT • Fully-automated system • 7June2012 Opened in 2005 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University (Sun, G., 28 LTA) SHIFT Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Seoul Before After ■ Expansion Plan (13 lines / 192 km) Source: GyengChul Kim Status of Existing Bus Lanes (2005) • Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84km • Curbside bus lanes: 293.6km 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 29 SHIFT Hierarchical BRT System in Seoul Increase - Network capacity new bus route +BRT - Bus ridership - Bus frequency (Keep Interval) Decrease - Total bus operation cost > Increase - Bus company revenue > Decrease - Subsidy of SMG 7June2012 Source: GyengChul Kim Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 30 SHIFT Integrated Bus-Subway Operation in Seoul Bus interval management Safe operation Providing dynamic information to public 7June2012 Source: GyengChul Kim Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 31 SHIFT Electric Fare System (Smart card) •Distance based fare (no change for transfers) • Data collection for traffic management • Non-transit applications (e.g. retail purchases, mileages) Seoul (2004-) 7June2012 Singapore (2002-) Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 32 CUTE Matrix: Shift + Improve Strategy Instrument Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Improve vehicles and fuels Rail/bus & London Singapore infrastructure IMTS Car Traffic Control LEV Alternative fuel Pedestrian friendly urban design TOD Regulation Compact city Mix land use Access permits Information Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign Economy 7June2012 Improve alternative modes Improve road network Technology Locationa l Subsidy Improve Fuel tax Road pricing Car Bus/tram ownership & priorities parking control Bus IT/ITS location operation system system Rail/bus fare Road pricing Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University TDM Eco-drive IT/ITS Road pricing Emission standard Emission Top runner Standard program IT / ITS LEV subsidy LEV preferential tax 33 SHIFT Car Ownership Control Singapore Vehicle Quota System (VQS) • Introduced in 1990 • Certificate of Entitlement (COE) – valid for 10 years – Bid the COE Shanghai (Sun, G., LTA) License Plate Auction System • Introduced in 1997 • Bid license plates of vehicles • The price exceeds 60,000yuan ($9,540) in 2012 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 34 SHIFT Off-Street Parking Control in London •Maximum car parking space by land use Employment car parking standard Location Marginal floor area (m2) to add one parking space Central London (CAZ) 1,000 – 1,500 Inner London 600 – 1,000 Outer London 100 – 600 Residential car parking standard Predominant housing type Car parking provision 4+ bed units 2 – 1.5 spaces 3 bed units 1.5 – 1 space 1 – 2 bed units 1 to less than 1 7June2012 •Maximum car parking space by Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL) Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 35 SHIFT On-Street Parking Control in Tokyo • In principle, parking is prohibited on the road • parking meters are installed in some of the road • Management by the police Number of cars parked in the streets in Tokyo [cars] 100000 4 wheel 80000 60000 Tokyo St. 2wheel 40000 20000 0 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 36 SHIFT Road Pricing in Singapore Area Licensing Scheme (ALS) • Implemented in 1975 • Reduced traffic entering the Restricted Zone (RZ) Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) • Implemented in 1998 • Replaced manual ALS 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 37 (Sun, G., LTA) SHIFT Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) • ERP is a congestion management tool • Pay-as-you-use principle • Review speed range at 3-month interval, adjust ERP rates Expressways Application of ITS Increase ERP rate 45 kph Decrease ERP rate 65 kph Arterial Roads traffic.smart Increase ERP rate 20 kph 7June2012 Decrease ERP rate 30 kph Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University Courtesy of Mohinder Singh, LTA 38 SHIFT Road Pricing in London Congestion Charge • Implemented in 2003 • The Zone of City Centre • Exemption introduced in 2011 for LEVs (EURO5, EV/PHV etc) Low Emission Zone • Implemented in 2008 • Freight vehicles and coaches • The whole city (GLA) • EURO3 standard 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 39 CUTE Matrix: Improve Strategy Instrument Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Pedestrian friendly urban design Technology TOD Regulation Compact city Mix land use Access permits Information Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign Economy 7June2012 Improve Improve alternative modes Rail/bus infrastructure Bus/tram Japanpriorities Top Runner Program Locationa l Subsidy Fuel tax Road pricing Bus location system Rail/bus fare Yoshitsugu Hayashi Laboratory, Hayashi, Nagoya University Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels IMTS LEV Alternative fuel TDM Emission standard Emission Top runner Standard program Eco-drive IT/ITS Road pricing IT / ITS LEV subsidy LEV preferential tax 40 IMPROVE g-Nox / kWh 6.0 Japan Euro3 0.25 EU Euro4 4.0 Euro5 2.0 US China Thailand 0.0 1996 2001 2006 PM 0.30 Euro2 g-PM / kWh 8.0 NOx 2011 0.20 0.15 Euro2 0.10 Euro3 Euro4,5 0.05 0.00 1996 2001 2006 2011 Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan NO2 2000 NO 2005 Annual average [mg / m3] Annual average [ppm] 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1995 2010 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1995 Source: Ministry of Environment ,Japan,Hayashi www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html 7June2012 Laboratory, Nagoya University PM 2000 2005 2010 41 IMPROVE Top Runner Program with vehicles Fuel Efficiency (km/L) target value 16 15km/L 14km/L 13km/L 12km/L at the time of standards establishment 7June2012 List of the Specified 21 Appliances Passenger Vehicles Freight Vehicles Air Conditioners Electric Refrigerators 19km/L Electric Freezers Weighted Electric Rice Cookers average value 18km/L Microwave Ovens for each Fluorescent Lights 17km/L product Electric Toilet Seats category 15km/L TV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma) Video Cassette Recorders DVD Recorders Computers Magnetic Disk Units Copying Machines Target year Space Heaters Gas Cooking Appliances Gas Water Heaters Oil Water Heaters Vending Machines Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University Transformers 42 CUTE Matrix: Improve Strategy Instrument Avoid Reduce need to travel Shift Reduce car use Pedestrian friendly urban design Technology TOD Regulation Compact city Mix land use Access permits Information Teleworki ng Car sharing Awareness campaign Economy 7June2012 Improve Improve alternative modes Rail/bus infrastructure Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels IMTS LEV Alternative fuel Bus/tram priorities TDM Emission standard Top runner program Bus location system Eco-drive IT/ITS Japan Locationa Fuel tax Taxation Greening l Subsidy Rail/bus fare Road pricing Yoshitsugu Hayashi Laboratory, Hayashi, Nagoya University Road pricing IT / ITS LEV LEVsubsidy subsidy LEV LEVpreferential preferential tax tax 43 IMPROVE Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies Methanol No. of vehicles Fuel economy [km/l] Top Runner Program Observed Greening taxation Estimation Sales base Methanol-fueled vehicle LPG-fueled vehicle Natural gas vehicle Hybrid vehicle Electrical vehicle Top Runner Program Ownership base LPG NGV Greening taxation Real running HV 7June2012 Yoshitsugu Hayashi Laboratory, Hayashi, Nagoya University 44 EV Year IMPROVE Increase in Low Emission Cars [vehicle] 1,600,000 1,400,000 EV HV 1,200,000 HV : 1,418,400 (2.54 % of total passenger cars) 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 EV : 16,800 (0.03 % of total passenger cars) 400,000 200,000 0 2004 7June2012 2005 2006 Year 2008 2007 2009 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 2010 45 Scenario for Improvement of Power Source and Fuel in the Case of Bangkok IMPROVE IMPROVE • Scenario for CO2 Emission Factor Improvement was set based on estimation in Japan • Production of electricity will be estimated based on scenario “increased use of renewable energy” CO2Emission Factor[g-CO2/km] 700 Upper level 600 500 Lower level GV 400 300 200 HV EV 100 0 2000 7June2012 FCV 2010 2020 2030 2040 CO2 Emission Factor for Passenger Vehicle 2050 Year Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University * Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 46 IMPROVE IMPROVE Scenario for Low-emission Vehicle Diffusion Number of registered Vehicle [‘000] Based on Estimation in Japan, passenger car using gasoline will be 0% with the scenario that motorcycle will sift to passenger car, 400 Gasoline 二輪GV Motorcycle 300 Electric 二輪EV Motorcycle Gasoline 200 普通GV Passenger Car 100 HV Passenger Car Hybrid Electric 普通EV Passenger Car 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year * Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 47 IMPROVE Identifying A Necessary Policy Package Extensive Measures Needed for Low-Carbon Transport 7June2012 50 40 Mitigation from AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Do Nothing 30 20 10 70% 0 2005 CO2 mitigation Scenario 2015 2025 2035 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Bangkok (Mt/year) 60 2045 2050 48 Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve CO2 Emission Reduction Target From the view point of energy consumption Biomass Energy Source Modal Share Diesel Electricity Gasoline Diesel CNG Electricity CNG Public Bus Gasoline -30% Rail MC Diesel CNG PC Electricity Gasoline -50% 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 49 × AVOID Total Trip Generation Emission × SHIFT Degree of Car dependence Total Trip Length IMPROVE Technical Level Emission Factor Modal Share ＝ × year Urban area Concentration of urban activity Transport Frequency 7June2012 × year year year Level of congestion Public Transport Improvement Fuel Economy Road Improvement LEV Ratio Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 50 Conclusion • CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) for • Decomposition for understand Urban Transport Emission: , and • Back-casting approach for seeking effective combinations • Scenario and Roadmap 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 51 Conclusion • To realize the low-carbon society, leapfrog development is necessary in Asian developing cities. • Thus, the future vision of low-carbon society which will achieve huge reduction of CO2 emission should be established firstly. • Impacts of each avoid, sift and improve measures should be clarified. • Then, thier effective combinations should be examined through backcasting approach. • Finally the available scenario should be set up for the roadmap of each city. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 52
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