Solar Cycle Activities

Solar Evolution and Extrema (SEE)
under VarSITI Scientific Program
Takeru Suzuki1, Taro Sakao2, Kanya Kusano3
(1: Physics, Nagoya U., 2: ISAS/JAXA, 3: STEL, Nagoya U.)
and
P. C. Martens, D. Nandi, V. N. Obridko,
K. Shiokawa, and K. Georieva
Acknowledgements
• I borrowed many slides and slide materials
from
– Prof. Kazuo Shiokawa (Nagoya U.)
Co-leader of international VarSITI program
• Overview of VarSITI program
– Dr. Piet Martens (Montana State U./CfA-Harvard)
Co-leader of international SEE element
• Outline of SEE activity element
– Dr. Taro Sakao (ISAS/JAXA)
Japanese Co-operation Partner of SEE
Four Elements of VarSITI
• Solar Evolution and Extrema (SEE)
太陽進化と極端現象
• International Study of Earth-Affecting Solar
Transients (ISEST)/MiniMax24
地球に影響を及ぼす太陽の短期変動に関する国際研究
• Specification and Prediction of the Coupled
Inner-Magnetospheric Environment (SPeCIMEN)
内部磁気圏における多圏間相互作用環境の理解と予測
• Role Of the Sun and the Middle
atmosphere/thermosphere/ionosphere In Climate
(ROSMIC)
地球気候に対する太陽・中層大気・熱圏・電離圏の役割
Science Questions driving SEE:
1. Are we at the verge of a new grand minimum?
If not, what is the expectation for cycle 25?
2. Does our current best understanding of the
evolution of solar irradiance and mass loss resolve
the "Faint Young Sun" paradox?
3. For the next few decades, what can we expect in
terms of extreme solar flares and storms, and also
absence of activity?
Goals & Objectives of SEE:
1. Reproduce past solar magnetic activity with
dynamo simulations, including grand/
extended minima.  Solar Cycle Activities
2. Establish solar spectral and wind output
over the Earth’s history.  Habitability
3. Determine size and frequency of extreme
solar events.  Extreme events
SEE Research Structure
Understand planetary
(Earth) habitability
Understand solar
cycle activities
Dynamo modeling
Nandi
Faint Young Sun
Martens
Prediction from polar fields
Muñoz-Jaramillo
Dynamo-climate coupling
Gibson et al.
Long-term sunspot database
ROB; Clette
- solar cycle dependence
- flux accumulation for
extreme events?
(As I understand...)
- radiation &
SW particles
v.s. atmos.
response
Evolution of the solar system
environment in terms of
habitability
Austrian PatH program
Modeling atmospheric erosion
& evolution
Modeling evolution of
cosmic-ray environment
Drake
Understand extreme solar events
Relationship btwn. extreme events
and solar cycle activity
Obridko
The Faint Young Sun Paradox
The Faint Young Sun Paradox
(Sagan and Mullen 1972)
(Martens):
Solar luminosity predicted
- The Sun was about 30% lessby stellar evolution model(s)
luminous when life developed on
Freezing
point of water
Earth, Yet
geological
and biological
evidence points to a warm young
Earth, 60 to 70 degC.
- What can be the solution?
- Physical status/composition of
(Kasting, Toon, and Pollack 1988,
the atmosphere?
Sci. Am. 258)
- Initial solar mass larger by a few
%, losing the mass by strong
Presence of life
wind? (Suzuki et al., 2013)
Birthsolar
of
Solar System
Liquid ocean present
Present
SOC:
今田晋亮(宇宙研)
鈴木建(名大)
宮原ひろ子(宇宙研)
常田佐久(国立天文台)
さいごに
• 太陽そのものを研究する「太陽物理学」
• 恒星としての太陽
– 天体現象の詳細観測
– 長時間(数10億年)進化⇔太陽型星の天文観測
• 母なる太陽ー惑星系の中心星として
– 惑星環境進化⇒生命居住可能惑星
– 太陽系外惑星研究の礎(いしずえ)
VarSITIが我々に何かをしてくれる訳ではない．
– 自らアクションを起こしてアクセスする．
VarSITI Committee Members
Japanese POCs
VarSITI International
Co-Leaders
SEE
Solar Evolution and Extrema
ISEST
International Studies of Earthaffecting Solar Transients
SPeCIMEN
Specification and Prediction
of the Coupled InnerMagnetospheric Environment
ROSMIC
Role Of the Sun and the
Middle
atmosphere/thermosphere/io
nosphere In Climate
International Co-Leaders
K. Georgieva (Bulgaria)
Kazuo Shiokawa （Nagoya U.）
T. Sakao （ISAS/JAXA）
T. Suzuki （Nagoya U.）
K. Kusano （Nagoya U.）
P. Martens (USA)
V. Obridko (Russia)
D. Nandi (India)
T. Shimizu （ISAS/JAXA）
A. Asai （Kyoto U.）
R. Kataoka （NIPR）
J. Zhang (USA)
M. Temmer (Austria)
N. Gopalswamy (USA)
Y. Miyoshi （Nagoya U.）
Y. Omura （Kyoto U.）
Y. Kato （Tohoku U.）
J. Bortnik (USA)
C. Rodger (New Zealand)
T. Nakamura （NIPR）
Y. Takahashi （Hokkaido U.）
Y. Otsuka （Nagoya U.）
F. –J. Lubken (Germany)
A. Seppala (Finland)
W. Ward (Canada)
SEE Research Structure
(As I understand...)
Understand planetary
(Earth) habitability
Understand solar
cycle activities
Dynamo modeling
Nandi
Faint Young Sun
Martens
Prediction from polar fields
Muñoz-Jaramillo
Dynamo-climate coupling
Gibson et al.
- radiation &
SW particles
v.s. atmos.
response
Evolution of the solar system
environment in terms of
habitability
Austrian PatH program
Participation welcomed!
Long-term sunspot database
ROB; Clette
- solar cycle dependence
- flux accumulation for
extreme events?
Modeling atmospheric erosion
& evolution
Modeling evolution of
cosmic-ray environment
Drake
Understand extreme solar events
Relationship btwn. extreme events
and solar cycle activity
Obridko
Backup Slides
IMS
STEP SRAMP CAWSES VarSITI
CAWSES-II
is the cause of the declining solar activityPSMOS
in
recent
years?
EPIC
is its consequence on the Earth and the ISCS
nearby space
 What
 What
environment?
MAP
SEE: White Paper Team
International contributing scientists
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sarah Gibson, High Altitude Observatory (NCAR), USA,
Katja Matthes, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany,
Manuel Gudel, University of Vienna, Austria,
Laurene Jouve, University of Toulouse, France,
Steve Saar, Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, USA,
Aline Vidotto, University of St Andrews, UK,
Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo, Montana State University, USA,
Ilya Usoskin: University of Oulu, Finland,
Kanya Kusano, Nagoya University, Japan,
Jeremy Drake, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Frederic Clette, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium,
Vladimir Obridko, IZMIRAN, Russia,
Dibyendu Nandi, IISER Kolkata, India,
International co-leaders
Piet Martens, Montana State University, USA
• Please join our group!
SEE Research Structure
Understand planetary
(Earth) habitability
Understand solar
cycle activities
Dynamo modeling
Nandi
Faint Young Sun
Martens
Prediction from polar fields
Muñoz-Jaramillo
Dynamo-climate coupling
Gibson et al.
Long-term sunspot database
ROB; Clette
- solar cycle dependence
- flux accumulation for
extreme events?
(As I understand...)
- radiation &
SW particles
v.s. atmos.
response
Evolution of the solar system
environment in terms of
habitability
Austrian PatH program
Modeling atmospheric erosion
& evolution
Modeling evolution of
cosmic-ray environment
Drake
Understand extreme solar events
Relationship btwn. extreme events
and solar cycle activity
Obridko
How well can we predict Sun’s activity?
Predictions of sunspot cycle 24
Understand Solar Cycle Activities
Dynamo Modeling
(Nandi):
-
-
-
-
Turbulent flux pumping: can it
replace single cell meridional
circulation?
Full 3D kinematic simulations:
Yeates & Munoz, MNRAS 2013,
Jouve & Nandi, in progress.
The “memory” of the solar
cycle: how far ahead can we
predict?
The physics of Grand Minima.
Are we going in to a Maunder
minimum?
Polar flux measurements and activity
predictions (Munoz-Jaramillo):
-
-
Polar flux (as an indicator of the solar axial
dipole moment) is crucial for determining
solar wind conditions at solar minimum.
Polar flux is predictor for next cycle.
Our dynamo and surface flux transport
simulations will yield a self-consistent
picture of the evolution of this baseline
during long time-scales.
SEE Research Structure
Understand planetary
(Earth) habitability
Understand solar
cycle activities
Dynamo modeling
Nandi
Faint Young Sun
Martens
Prediction from polar fields
Muñoz-Jaramillo
Dynamo-climate coupling
Gibson et al.
Long-term sunspot database
ROB; Clette
- solar cycle dependence
- flux accumulation for
extreme events?
(As I understand...)
- radiation &
SW particles
v.s. atmos.
response
Evolution of the solar system
environment in terms of
habitability
Austrian PatH program
Modeling atmospheric erosion
& evolution
Modeling evolution of
cosmic-ray environment
Drake
Understand extreme solar events
Relationship btwn. extreme events
and solar cycle activity
Obridko
Pathways to Habitability:
An Austrian National Key Science Program
University of Vienna, Austrian Academy of Sciences, University of Graz
~40 team members, +40 int’l co-operation partners
funding 2012-2016 ongoing, 2016-2020 after review
co-operation with other groups & networks being established, and welcome!
Principal Questions and Goals:
- What are the astrophysical conditions for planetary habitability?
- How are environments becoming habitable in forming planetary systems?
- How and when in habitability established under extreme conditions?
- What was different in the young solar system compared to the present?
ASA
Dynamo Modeling: Nandi
Research Projects:
- Turbulent flux pumping: can it replace single cell meridional
circulation?
- Full 3D kinematic simulations: Yeates & Munoz, MNRAS 2013,
Jouve & Nandi, in progress
- The “memory” of the solar cycle: how far ahead can we
predict?
- The physics of Grand Minima. Are we going in to a Maunder
minimum?
Polar Flux Measurements (Munoz, MSU)
Muñoz-Jaramillo et al. 2012
• Polar flux (as an indicator of the solar axial dipole moment)
is crucial for determining solar wind conditions at solar
minimum. Polar flux is predictor for next cycle.
• Our dynamo and surface flux transport simulations will
yield a self-consistent picture of the evolution of this
baseline during long time-scales.
The Faint Young Sun Paradox:
Martens
The Sun was about 30% less luminous when
life developed on Earth, yet geological and
biological evidence points to a warm young
Earth, 60 to 70 C
SEE Research Structure
Understand planetary
(Earth) habitability
Understand solar
cycle activities
Dynamo modeling
Nandi
Faint Young Sun
Martens
Prediction from polar fields
Muñoz-Jaramillo
Dynamo-climate coupling
Gibson et al.
Long-term sunspot database
ROB; Clette
- solar cycle dependence
- flux accumulation for
extreme events?
(As I understand...)
- radiation &
SW particles
v.s. atmos.
response
Evolution of the solar system
environment in terms of
habitability
Austrian PatH program
Modeling atmospheric erosion
& evolution
Modeling evolution of
cosmic-ray environment
Drake
Understand extreme solar events
Relationship btwn. extreme events
and solar cycle activity
Obridko
Modeling Cosmic Rays Through Time
Drake, SAO
• Cosmic ray environment
depends primarily on
– Solar surface magnetic
field and wind
– Solar rotation rate
• Model young solar analogs
using observed B field maps
– Observed Prot vs time
– Compute CR transport
AB Doradus K0 V P=0.5d
Parker Spiral at 75 Myr
Cohen et al (2010)
Modeling Evolution of
Cosmic Ray
Environment (Drake)
Parker Spiral at 75 Myr
GCR flux at Earth
Local ISM
P=25d
P=4d
Cohen et al (2012)
• Cosmic ray environment
depends primarily on
– Solar surface magnetic
field and wind
– Solar rotation rate
• Model young solar
analogs using observed
B field maps
– Observed Prot vs time
– Compute CR transport
Cohen et al (2010)
AB Doradus K0 V P=0.5d
Extreme Events (Obridko)
Much progress is being made by other scientists
already on this issue (e.g. the Shibata group in
Kyoto)
Prof. Obridko’s subgroup will focus on the following:
- Really large solar flares and storms, e.g. the
Carrington event and the 1921 magnetic
superstorm occur in smaller solar cycles.
(Press release figure by
Can that be confirmed from larger data
Kyoto U.; 2014)
samples?
- If so, what is the expectation value for such super large storms during
the upcoming era of less strong solar cycles? Are we in fact facing a
larger risk?
• Seek for relationship between “productivity” of
extreme events and solar cycle activity.
• What about the upcoming weak cycle activities?
Extreme Events: Obridko
Much progress is being made by other scientists already on
this issue (e.g. the Shibata group in Kyoto)
Prof. Obridko’s subgroup will focus on the following:
- Really large solar flares and storms, e.g. the Carrington
event and the 1921 magnetic superstorm occur in
smaller solar cycles. Can that be confirmed from larger
data samples?
- If so, what is the expectation value for such super large
storms during the upcoming era of less strong solar
cycles? Are we in fact facing a larger risk?
VarSITI委員
国内委員
VarSITI国際Co-Leader
ＳＥＥ
太陽進化と極端現象
ＩＳＥＳＴ
地球に影響を及ぼす太陽の短
期変動に関する国際研究
SPｅＣＩＭＥＮ
内部磁気圏における多圏間相
互作用環境の理解と予測
ＲＯＳＭＩＣ
地球気候に対する太陽・中層
大気・熱圏・電離圏の役割
国際Co-Leader
K. Georgieva (Bulgaria)
塩川和夫（名大STE研）
坂尾太郎（JAXA宇宙研）
鈴木建（名大理）
草野完也（名大STE研）
P. Martens (USA)
V. Obridko (Russia)
D. Nandi (India)
清水敏文（ＪＡＸＡ宇宙研）
浅井歩（京大宇宙ユニット）
片岡龍峰（極地研）
J. Zhang (USA)
M. Temmer (Austria)
N. Gopalswamy (USA)
三好由純（名大ＳＴＥ研）
大村善治（京大生存圏）
加藤雄人（東北大理）
J. Bortnik (USA)
C. Rodger (New Zealand)
中村卓司（極地研）
高橋幸弘（北大理）
大塚雄一（名大ＳＴＥ研）
F. –J. Lubken (Germany)
A. Seppala (Finland)
W. Ward (Canada)

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