An Integrated Assessment Model Including End

An Introduction of the BET model
-An Integrated Assessment Model
Including End-Use Technologies
Hiromi Yamamoto
Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
(CRIEPI), Tokyo
2013/07/30 32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage
1
Background
• An IAM (integrated assessment model) , which evaluates
interactions between energy, the economy, and the
environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for longterm, global sustainable development (Weyant 1999).
• Recently, advanced end-use technologies have received
increasing attention as a key component of options for climate
change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric
technologies include heat-pump water heaters and EVs.
• A combination of low-carbon power generation (such as
renewables, thermal power with CCS, and nuclear) and
advanced electric end-use technologies are a promising
solution for drastic GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction.
2
Objectives
• To develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on
a general equilibrium technique (Ramsey’s optimal growth
theory) and including advanced end-use technologies such
as heat pump water-heater and electric vehicles.
• Using the model, to analyze the effects of the advanced
end use technologies.
• We conduct on-off analyses of the advanced end-use
technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced
end use technologies.
3
BET model
• Basic-Energy-Economy-Environment-and-Enduse Technology
Model (BET).
• A MERGE-RICE type global model hard-linked with enduse
technologies like MARKAL-MACRO.
• The economic module is an one-sector CES (constant elasticity
substitution) type production function.
• The energy module is a bottom-up type model that describes
vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves.
• The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass,
nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop.
• World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10
year-intervals; an NLP model.
4
Figure
The
model
structure
incl. energy serv.
Energy Model
Next term
Labor
Capital
Energy Serv.
Ene. Cost
.
CO2
Other GHG
Climate Model
Prod. Func.
Total prod.
Non Energy Model
Income identity
Expend.
Temperature
Damage Model
Damage
Investment
Consumption
Net export
Utilitiy function
Sum of Util.
Maximization
5
Table
Energy
Services
In the
model
Sec tor
Sub-s ec tor
High-temp. heating
Industry
Low-temp. heating
Other electricity
Other solid fuel
Other liquid fuel
Other gaseous fuel
Lighting
Space cooling
Cooking
Commercial
Household
Transportation
Elec tric ity
Solid fuel
Electric heating
/ Inductive
Solid boiler
heating
Electric heating
Solid boiler
/ Heat pump
Electricity
N/A
N/A
N/A
Electricity
Ele. air con.
Ele. cooker
N/A
Solid fuel
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Solid cooker
Liquid fuel
Gas eous fuel
Liquid boiler
Gas boiler
Liquid boiler
Gas boiler
N/A
N/A
Liquid fuel
N/A
Oil lamp
N/A
Liquid cooker
N/A
N/A
N/A
Gaseous fuel
N/A
N/A
Gas cooker
Liquid
Gas
Liquid stove
Gas stove
N/A
Oil lamp
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Gas
Space heating
Electric heating
N/A
/ Heat pump
Ele. Heat pump Solid stove
Other
Lighting
Space cooling
Electricity
Electricity
Ele. air con.
Hot water
Electric heating
Solid
/ Heat pump
Liquid
Cooking
Ele. cooker
Liquid cooker Gas cooker
Space heating
Ele. Heat pump Solid stove
Liquid stove
Gas stove
Other
Electricity
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Conv. vehicle
/ Hybrid
N/A
vehicle
Hot water
N/A
N/A
N/A
Solid cooker
Road freight
N/A
Road passenger
Electric vehicle Conv. vehicle N/A
Railroad
Electricity
Aviation and shipping N/A
N/A
N/A
Liquid
Liquid
N/A
N/A
N/A
6
Primary Energy
BET 13 regions
usa
Europe (EU27+3)
europe
EUR
japan
JPN
Secondary energy
Coal
Direct use
Syn-oil production
Coal
s
Solid biomass
Net export
Oil
Oil-fired power
Syn-oil
Liquid fuel
USA
Regio
n3
letter
USA
Japan
Region
name
Coal-fired power
Solid fuel
Regions and
Energy systems
Conversion
Direct use
Oil
Net export
Natural gas
Gas-fired power
Liquid biomass
Direct use
CAZ
Other Eurasia
oeurasia
OEA
Russia
russia
RUS
Net export
Pre-treatment
Natural gas
Gaseous fuel
Canada, Australia, and canz
New Zealand
Gaseous biomass
Biomass
Biomass power
china
CHA
Solid fuel prod.
India
india
IND
Liquid fuel prod.
Gaseous fuel prod.
Middle East & N. Africa
nafrica
MNA
Brazil
brazil
BRA
ASEAN & Korea
aseank
ASK
Nuclear
Nuclear power
Other Latin America
olatam
OLA
Hydro, wind, PV, and
Hydro, wind, PV, and
geothermal
geothermal power
Sub-Sahara Africa
safrica
SSA
Backstop (electricity)
Direct use
Backstop (gaseous)
Electricity
China incl. Hong Kong
Backstop (gaseous)
Electricity
Direct use
7
Formulation of production function:
YN t ,r


rhokpvs
ln rho1kpvs 
 aconst t ,r KN



bconst i,t ,r DNi,t ,r
i
Patty -Clay type -function.
YN: (patty) production; Yt = (1-ζ) Yt-1 + YNt; ζ is a deplation rate.
KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) labor.
DN: Energy services; DN = f(E).
Income identity:
Yt ,r  ECt ,r  Ct ,r  I t ,r
EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies.
Objective function:
U
 df
r
t ,r
log Ct , r   max
t ,r
θ: Negishi weight, df: discount rate..
1
 rho
rho 



16000
Basic performance of BET.
population
14000
12000
A1
10000
B1
8000
A2
6000
B2
4000
BET
2000
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GDP
600
2500
TPES
500
400
A1B AIM
B1 IMAGE
300
1500
B2 MESSAGE1000
200
A1B AIM
B1 IMAGE
A2 ASF
BET目視
A2 ASF
B2 MESSAGE
BET
500
100
0
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
1990
GDP (Trillion 1990USD)
2000
9
GDP losses (Base case =0%)
GHG accumulation
targets
GDP losses (compared to Unconstrained-ON)
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
2000
2020
2040
2060
Off:
Advanced
2080
2100
End use
550ppm-OFF
Techs
550ppm-ON Are
Off;
450ppm-ON On:
Advanced
End use
Techs
Are
On.
450ppm-OFF
10
a
biomass
biomass-CCS
coal
coal-CCS
gas
gas-CCS
nuclear
hydro
wind
0
Base
Base-off
650
650-off
550
550-off
450
450-off
solar
geothermal
other
Power generation mix (PWh/year)
10
20
30
40
b
biomass
biomass-CCS
coal
coal-CCS
gas
gas-CCS
nuclear
hydro
wind
0
50
Fig
Power
generation,
upper: 2050
lower:2100
solar
geothermal
other
Power generation mix (PWh/year)
20
40
60
80
100
Base
Base-off
650
650-off
550
550-off
450
450-off
11
b
Electricity
0
Adv. Electricity
200
Solid
Liquid
Adv. Liquid
Energy services (EJ/year)
400
600
Gaseous
800
Fig
Energy
services,
upper: 2050
lower:2100
1000
Base
Base-off
650
650-off
550
550-off
450
450-off
d
Electricity
0
Adv. Electricity
200
400
Solid
Liquid
Adv. Liquid
Energy services (EJ/year)
600
800
1000
1200
Gaseous
1400
1600
Base
Base-off
650
650-off
550
550-off
450
450-off
12
100%
80%
Fig
Energy services
in vehicle
services,
upper: 450-off
Lower: 450-on
Demand decrease
Conv.
freight
60%
40%
20%
Conv. passenger
0%
2000
2020
100%
2040
2060
2080
80%
Conv.
60%
freight
2100
Demand decrease
Hybrid freight
40%
20%
Conv.
passenger
EV passenger
0%
13
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Conclusions
• Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and
obtained the following results.
• (1) Turning off the advanced end-use technologies results in
GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent
climate policy. The advanced end-use technologies are a way
to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent.
• (2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non-electricity
demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more
stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using
various low-carbon options such as renewables, nuclear , and
thermal power with CCS.
• (3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high
under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of
electrification and advanced electric end-use technologies is a
14
powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints.

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